Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We’ll know soon enough…

It probably gets over that…but not by too much

Just a guess

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The narrative is, is the company happy with the opening weekend. Not the total performance. There is no total performance yet. If they stop bragging about metrics long term, that answers that question.

For example they didn’t brag about Mufasa opening weekend but eventually left some performance metrics in their year end review.

I’d say that’s fair/accurate

Really interested in seeing how it goes now

 

[coffeefan]

An interesting tidbit: FF did better with younger demos. That should be encouraging to Marvel as they seek to do a reset with X-Men.

 

[TP2000]

The Fantastic Four opened in all countries around the world on the same weekend, so there'll be no waiting for Japan or China or even Portugal for the final box office tally on this one. And it underperformed overseas compared to the USA.

Can a $217-ish Million opening weekend globally get it to the $650-ish Million it needs globally to break even?

At least Disneyland got a new robot and a meet n' greet for their semi-abandoned Tomorrowland!

 

[MisterPenguin]

The Fantastic Four opened in all countries around the world on the same weekend, so there'll be no waiting for Japan or China or even Portugal for the final box office tally on this one. And it underperformed overseas compared to the USA.

Can a $217-ish Million opening weekend globally get it to the $650-ish Million it needs globally to break even?

At least Disneyland got a new robot and a meet n' greet for their semi-abandoned Tomorrowland!

View attachment 873902

Budget was $200M.

Using the 2.5 multiplier rule, break even is $500M.

CinemaScore of A- has historically been a 3.4 multiplier of the opening weekend. That would put it at $737M global BO.

Net profit of $237M.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Boxoffice gurus of the hivemind of the internet are saying $500m is likely a best case scenario.

 

[Tha Realest]

CinemaScore of A- has historically been a 3.4 multiplier of the opening weekend. That would put it at $737M global BO.

Net profit of $237M.

We’ll see how this shakes out. I highly doubt it gets anywhere near that. By the looks of things it doesn’t seem to be legging out and early projections suggest a 60% drop this coming weekend.

 

[DKampy]

Well I sorta agree with you…

Not every whizz bang is gonna make alot of bank in the current theater business…but some certainly have. You just don’t get as many.

My personal theory is that a tentpole that’s decent might make 75-80ish % now what they had pre-Covid…things being equal.

But still…don’t give a pass for bad product or ideas. Just as wdw annual attendance went down by 5,000,000 or so after shutdown…there’s actually no real excuse for it now. It went “poof” and covid doesn’t play any more.

Movies that strike a cord will get em there still

I agree movies can still well…however I believe those movies that hit the zeitgeist would of done even better before 2020

Also there is no reason to believe Superman or F4 would have hit a billion…. As history says they would not have

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We’ll see how this shakes out. I highly doubt it gets anywhere near that. By the looks of things it doesn’t seem to be legging out and early projections suggest a 60% drop this coming weekend.

I’m scratching my head on any talking of $700…Superman isn’t gonna get there and it got more of a buzz bump after opening that this one has.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Looks like F4 did good yesterday.

 

[Tha Realest]

Looks like F4 did good yesterday.

That one’s surprising. I think it too passed $500M as well, which is wild considering it’s widely believed to be on Apple TV+ eventually if not “soon”

 

[Tha Realest]

The Fantastic Four opened in all countries around the world on the same weekend, so there'll be no waiting for Japan or China or even Portugal for the final box office tally on this one. And it underperformed overseas compared to the USA.

Can a $217-ish Million opening weekend globally get it to the $650-ish Million it needs globally to break even?

At least Disneyland got a new robot and a meet n' greet for their semi-abandoned Tomorrowland!

View attachment 873902

Disneyland always gets the good stuff.

With the reception this one’s getting, there’s likely little consternation as to how WDW can convert Tomorrowland into a FF:FS land given the Marvel/Uni contract. After Tomorrowland and Lightyear, and now this, maybe the next Disney sci-fi extravaganza will finally give this project some juice.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

 

[Tha Realest]

Interesting that a relatively optimistic article about Marvel claims Thunderbolts* was a misfire - I thought that was the “good” movie of the two released earlier this year.

Also, this confirms the budget for FF:FS wasn’t $200M, but rather:

Disney hasn’t given a precise figure on the film’s budget, only pegging it at somewhere north of $200 million.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…very shocking stance from an agent.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting that a relatively optimistic article about Marvel claims Thunderbolts* was a misfire - I thought that was the “good” movie of the two released earlier this year.

Also, this confirms the budget for FF:FS wasn’t $200M, but rather:

Disney hasn’t given a precise figure on the film’s budget, only pegging it at somewhere north of $200 million.

…yeah it turns out it was a flop…not boosting the subs, retention or ads on the D+ cash cow either

I’m 100% positive that the discussion here a few months ago had zero fluffed up excuses/illusions presented…but I’m too lazy to look.

But what were the trailer clicks?

TRAILER CLICKS ARE EVERYTHING

 

[Disney Irish]

I always find it funny what some take away from an article such as this.

For some its to try and confirm budgets are more than reported in some "gotcha" moment, when in reality saying "north of" is no real confirmation at all, as $200M and 1 cent is "north of". For others its a description about a particular film to try and confirm some bias about said film so it can be "see I told you it was bad", when reality is that a studio thinks it perfectly fine.

The larger take away from this for me is to confirm what many of us who actually understand where is happening with the industry already knew, that Disney does not expect Marvel to do $1B+ anymore, and likely never will have the expectation again. Heck they don't even expect $600-750M anymore in my opinion either. And that we focus too much on opening weekend around here, when studios in the post-pandemic world aren't as obsessed about that as we are. And that the "old guards" metrics used pre-pandemic of what a "hit" is aren't the reality anymore. The landscape is different post-pandemic, and if you've been really paying attention you'd know that studios expectation were reset a LONG time ago, its just taken the public until now to catch up to that reality.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[Ghost93]

I thought Fantastic Four was a solid movie, but not as good as either Thunderbolts or Superman.

I loved the cast, the tone, the production design, the cinematography, the sincere approach and the retro-futuristic world of the movie. I even thought Galactus was pulled off rather well and didn't come across as ridiculous as he could have easily been. But I felt like the characters were not developed nearly as well as they should have been. The only character who had any compelling journey was the Silver Surfer. None of the core four went through a major character arc. While this movie overall is a big upgrade from the 2005 film, I think the 2005 film and its sequel did a much better job fleshing out the Thing and the Human torch.

Some of the issues with the characters are a side effect of skipping over the origin story. However, the new Superman film also skipped the origin story and still gave him a more clearly pronounced arc.

Because of these factors, I think Superman will continue to do repeat business while the Fantastic Four will not have as strong legs at the box office. I think the overriding sentiment will be "it's good" rather than "YOU MUST SEE THIS!"

 

[coffeefan]

James Gunn's immigrant Superman reached a new milestone.