I totally agree..... Just think about it.... the official government anti-trust regulator can’t decide if a deal is good or bad, the CEO of the combined company shows up, they have a meeting, and then miraculously the deal is automatically approved, everyone stands in front of the ABC news cameras and say’s “ We were so confused, but now that Bob has explained it to us, now we see the light, and we approve the merger”?????? Never was going to happen. He may have clarified things, and provided some reassurance, and answered real time “what-if” questions, but he was never going to walk away with the approval..... even if he did get approval assurance, they wouldn’t annouce it until they meet, on the 27th.
I also think Iger going there and meeting with them face to face is a high risk strategy. If anything it makes it harder for the CADE to approve the thing. It would look as though they were bending to his pressure..... He must be willing to give them what they want (spin off or sale of the Fox Sports rights), and he wants to get on with the start of the new company.
From the CADE perspective, what are their options? Make him sell Fox Sports Brazil to someone else? Close it down? Some other entity is going to purchase it, and want to make money, and probably charge the good people of Brazil a pay-per-view price to watch the channel (Same in Mexico). If they really want everyone to see these games, then Bob can give them assurance (like he did with Sky) that he will make no changes to the current broadcast situation (over the air, everyone gets it for free, and has to watch too many commercials) for say 10 years.....
This is about the CADE saving face (in my opinion)..... we will see, but don’t be surprised if we aren’t still speculating about this in May!
en.cade.gov.br
www.bloomberg.com
