Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2022 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think most big companies arent worth their stack valuation either.

Did this call cover their film business? I can't imagine the last 4 pixar movies losing them over a billion dollars combined was brought up?

That was “behind the curtain”…and I’ll thank you NOT to pay attention to it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I think Wall St is more than reasonable for demanding Disney reaches their own targets and numbers they set and repeatedly miss. Remember when they claimed two years ago in an investor call that Disney Plus would have 250 million subscribers by 2023?

The company made crazy expensive investments in the last 10 years, I don't see Fox or Disney + ever getting out of the red.

D+ has six quarters to meet the bottom of their original sub goal (230M - 260M subs is what Disney announced).

So, they need to add 66M D+ subs to meet that goal at a minimum. That's 6.6M per quarter.

In the past 3 quarters, subs increased from 137M to 164M. That's an average of 9M per quarter.

But... sub numbers are just part of the equation. Price hikes were always part of the plan.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Subs will run out of runway without massive content…

…ask Netflix…and espn…and HBO…and everyone who has tried to Jack prices for the same product annually since 1980

 

[CastAStone]

I think most big companies arent worth their stack valuation either.

Well rising interest rates will make P:E ratios more interesting. It’s pretty easy to be OK putting your money in a stock that will take 30 years to generate the income to cover your share if your alternatives are bonds that pay negative real interest. So there was no real brake on stock prices; it was almost impossible for a profitable company to be overvalued (in a sense).

With interest rates at 5%? Yeah that’s gonna change people’s perceptions of what is a good value. Pretty easy to grab that interest rate.

 

[Grumpy4196]

How many of the initial 3 year subs will decide not to renew later this month?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well rising interest rates will make P:E ratios more interesting. It’s pretty easy to be OK putting your money in a stock that will take 30 years to generate the income to cover your share if your alternatives are bonds that pay negative real interest. So there was no real brake on stock prices; it was almost impossible for a profitable company to be overvalued (in a sense).

With interest rates at 5%? Yeah that’s gonna change people’s perceptions of what is a good value. Pretty easy to grab that interest rate.

That type of “fiscal policy” is barreling towards crash.

It’s running to the “kill” switch. We tried this once…it barely held.

Barely

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How many of the initial 3 year subs will decide not to renew later this month?

It’s actually later this week 11/12…

We don’t know? I imagine most will roll because it’s the more fanatical base…

The real bleed would be 1/1 through next year…Covid era sign ups

 

[MisterPenguin]

How many of the initial 3 year subs will decide not to renew later this month?

You mean Disney superfans who temporarily joined D23 and bought into a 3 year subscription; and if they don't like the price increase, can switch to an ad-supported tier at nearly the same price? You think these are the type to bail on Disney?

 

[SplashJacket]

“2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best storytelling yet”

This seems like a parody

 

[mikejs78]

Who knows? A hostile takeover cant be any worse than what we have now.

Believe me, a hostile takeover would make Chappie look like the reincarnation of Walt.

 

[DopeyRunner]

How many of the initial 3 year subs will decide not to renew later this month?

You mean in 2 days? I will be canceling my membership this evening, and I suspect others will be doing the same. I don’t think there will be a massive clawback in subscriber numbers, but I do think that the +9million/quarter number quoted above is likely on the high side for next quarter. I may consider subscribing again in the future, but I’ve exhausted all of the content that I care to watch.

On a separate note, the stock is down roughly 47% YoY, and actually down about 4% over a five year period. Knowing that the price will likely bounce up slightly in the next few days of trading will likely correct that somewhat, but low level layoffs won’t save the company. It’s time to look at the top and weed out the useless leaders. There’s talent within the org who have studied under the hands of the greats, at least in some capacity, it’s time to kick the abc people aside and let the true Disney folk take over. BoM should be calling some emergency meetings, since most company boards don’t like losing that much share price, but then again, they’re all buddy buddy anyways, so either nothing will happen, or Bobby will be replaced with another hapless “leader”.

Keep smiling through your bonuses Bobby, we know it’s all you care about.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Believe me, a hostile takeover would make Chappie look like the reincarnation of Walt.

 

[GhostHost1000]

“2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best storytelling yet”

This seems like a parody

It told a story alright

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

How many of the initial 3 year subs will decide not to renew later this month?

I’m not renewing but would consider it in the future.

 

[Disstevefan1]

“2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best worst storytelling yet”

FIFY

 

[mikejs78]

I’m not renewing but would consider it in the future.

I'm renewing. My family watches enough content to make it worth it, and plus I would prefer to lock in the lower rate for ad-free for at least another year.

 

[networkpro]

FIFY

They told a story alright, not necessarily a profitable one.

 

[MrPromey]

I believe Tom cruise made $300 by himself this year? Nuts

Not even thetans can't keep him down.

 

[MrPromey]

Q: Phil follow-up. How will you cut costs?

Christine: We're looking at. Some cuts, some efficiencies, some structural.

They've already started

I kid!

... for the most part.

 

[MrPromey]

The number of people who did 3 year deals for D+ is a very small percentage. I think it was on D23 members who were eligible right? Think about how much Disney+ subs increased in the first year compared to what it was at launch - everyone with the 3 year deal would have been at launch. I think it was only ~10 million subs at launch.

Yes but all you had to do was sign up for the free tier to be eligible so who knows.