Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2022 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm renewing. My family watches enough content to make it worth it, and plus I would prefer to lock in the lower rate for ad-free for at least another year.

I’m sure I’ll crack and pay the $79.99…

But I probably won’t go much higher and don’t want ads. I know how to find abc if I want ads.

What’s ironic is I like - most part - the D original shows and series…

What’s now lagging are the movies…cause they aren’t producing enough of it quality to rewatch.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

FIFY

Their movie slate was awful…they need avatar to really bail them out

(I hear a non-spoiler review of wakanda today…it’s not gonna do it. But will still make money)

Am I crazy…but didn’t Disney buy a movie studio that created the biggest franchise In modern Hollywood? Some space stuff?

What happened to those movies?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

See how all those people on these boards not going anymore mattered?

 

[BrianLo]

As a consumer, I enjoy Disney+, but as a business strategy is seems somewhat dubious.

They're hoping it turns a profit in the next 12-18 months (about 4-5 years after launch) because they think they won't see a significant drop in subscribers once they charge more and run ads, or that those will offset such losses.

I wonder if they're thinking of cutting back on new content, or looking for ways to make it cheaper?

The key statistic here is average revenue per user. Ignoring India that’s currently 5.87$ per month for Disney Plus and 16.7$ per month for Netflix. That’s why Disney DTC is shedding 4 billion a year and Netflix is positive 5.

It’s why the 2024 guidance never changed despite the massive change in subscriptions. Spending ramped up accordingly, but profitability is largely dependent on their internal price increase forecast.

It’s kind of written on the wall with the 3 year deal, get them in and addicted, adjust them to the 2023 year without complete sticker shock and crank up the subscription price further to a profitable margin for 2024.

I doubt ARPU will be 16.7 like Netflix by any means, but I certainly expect their profitability tipping point is 10USD. That’s really not unreasonable to expect everyone to run for the hills when it’s largely tolerated at a much higher level than Netflix.

Totally theoretically global ARPU really only needs to increase by about 30% from its current spending level (with flat subscribers) to break even… which is actually only 8.07$ for the domestic market. I’m using roughly 10 because I assume spending will continue to increase.

I think the market is totally off the rails with subscriber expectations. Yes subscribers number matters. Yes Disney frankly practically is giving D+ away to get quickly to scale (and it worked more shockingly well than anyone expected). But people were tolerating literally 100$ cable bills 20 years ago, streamers will be exceedingly profitable even at a fraction of that endpoint. Eventually the obsession with subscriber growth will lead to market preference for ARPU growth as the endpoint to more money.

 

[JAN J]

A 20% price increase with a loss of 10% of the subscribers is a 10% revenue increase.

It's an 8% revenue increase.
1.2 x 0.9 = 1.08
But assuming prices went up 10% and they lost 10% of customers, they would actually lose revenue.

That being said, we don't know what the revenue has to be for it to break even, let alone be considered profitable.

 

[WDWFanRay]

“2022 was a strong year for Disney, with some of our best storytelling yet”

Yeah, telling the story of how they’re squeezing the guests at every turn. Imagine what story they’ll tell in 2023!

 

[Jrb1979]

See how all those people on these boards not going anymore mattered?

Cause those people are a small part of the GP that make up who goes to Disney. For the most part most GP don't care about Dr. Evil and the behind the scenes stuff. All the care about is their littles having fun seeing a person dressed as a Mouse.

 

[Notes from Neverland]

Looking for "meaningful efficiencies" at a time when Disney is already cutting things isn't exactly the language we want to hear...

 

[JoeCamel]

Looking for "meaningful efficiencies" at a time when Disney is already cutting things isn't exactly the language we want to hear...

Meant to look smart to the stockholders

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Cause those people are a small part of the GP that make up who goes to Disney. For the most part most GP don't care about Dr. Evil and the behind the scenes stuff. All the care about is their littles having fun seeing a person dressed as a Mouse.

…However that group is much more likely to look at the costs racking up than most people here.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Wall Street is a perfidious lover...

 

[larryz]

The problem is you and I are laughing…but execs aren’t paid for “long game” any more

They only carry a putter and a wedge in the bag.

And we know what that leads to: putting with a wedgie!

 

[larryz]

I’m sure I’ll crack and pay the $79.99…

But I probably won’t go much higher and don’t want ads. I know how to find abc if I want ads.

What’s ironic is I like - most part - the D original shows and series…

What’s now lagging are the movies…cause they aren’t producing enough of it quality to rewatch.

On an annual sub, it's only $2 more per month ($83 vs $118). Most people will find that reasonable.

 

[castlecake2.0]

made so much money but still fighting with unions over raises for front line cast

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Cramer openly calling for Chapek to be fired on CNBC this morning.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I renewed my D+ but cancelled my three Platinum APs after having them for many years in 2020.
The money I save is ....... Incredible.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

made so much money but still fighting with unions over raises for front line cast

Based.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Cramer openly calling for Chapek to be fired on CNBC this morning.

Fired for what? Making the company too much money?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I’m sure I’ll crack and pay the $79.99...

...per share for $DIS?

 

[doctornick]

Cramer openly calling for Chapek to be fired on CNBC this morning.

What is his argument here? Disney+ not making profit soon enough?