Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[SorcererMC]

Nothing that hasn't been said already: presuming fewer AP's overall, new AP's with blackout dates, and specifically to the 4th, probably decreased local attendance due to potential safety issues. Side hypothesis: if locals make up a significant portion of daily traffic, and if they often go for lunch or dinner, etc., and reports are the food portions have been cut back, they may not see the value when it's much easier to pop over to International Drive or local places without all the parking hullaballoo. (I'm hoping to not notice this when we go in the Fall, but hoping the crowd levels are still down!)

Do you have any idea how many visitors or percentage might be locals/APers? A rough estimate. I haven't been able to find this anywhere, and I'm sure it varies throughout the year.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I think we have pretty much covered the "Crowds are down due to affordability" argument.

Any word on whether things have picked up, and any other than economics hypotheses on why it might be less crowded this summer?

The history of WDW attendance is either economics (mostly recessions and pricing) or additions. Since we're not supposed to discuss economics any more...

This has been a weak year for new attractions in Orlando. Sure, Universal opened Kong but it doesn't seem to be the draw that WWOHP or the New Fantasyland were.

I suspect at least some consumers are staying home and saving their nickels, waiting for WDW or Universal to open something truly exciting.

 

[Alejandro]

The history of WDW attendance is either economics (mostly recessions and pricing) or additions. Since we're not supposed to discuss economics any more...

This has been a weak year for new attractions in Orlando. Sure, Universal opened Kong but it doesn't seem to be the draw that WWOHP or the New Fantasyland were.

I suspect at least some consumers are staying home and saving their nickels, waiting for WDW or Universal to open something truly exciting.

Well on that note, I'm saving up to take my family (parents, sister, brother in law and nephew) in 2017, when my nephew turns 4. I'm basically waiting a bit to let things settle down and new attractions to open.
Hopefully Avatar will be done.
And yes, I'll be 60 when Star Wars land opens LOL

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Do you have any idea how many visitors or percentage might be locals/APers? A rough estimate. I haven't been able to find this anywhere, and I'm sure it varies throughout the year.

I don't, but I am interested to learn that as well. It would appear to be the critical metric for 2016 vs. 2015; although it may all wash out by 2017-18 as the new attractions come on line and the price starts to more closely match the perception of services again.

 

[The Mom]

The history of WDW attendance is either economics (mostly recessions and pricing) or additions. Since we're not supposed to discuss economics any more...

This has been a weak year for new attractions in Orlando. Sure, Universal opened Kong but it doesn't seem to be the draw that WWOHP or the New Fantasyland were.

I suspect at least some consumers are staying home and saving their nickels, waiting for WDW or Universal to open something truly exciting.

I was more interested in whether it was peculiar to WDW, or to theme parks as a whole.

I was also wondering if it has anything to do with recent shootings where large crowds have gathered. Or Zika. Or alligators. Or maybe the perfect storm with a combination of all of them.

 

[SorcererMC]

I was also wondering if it has anything to do with recent shootings where large crowds have gathered. Or Zika. Or alligators. Or maybe the perfect storm with a combination of all of them.

My fear is that FL tourism, and the local Orlando economy, is about to hit a crisis that they are not prepared for, in spite of the broader US economy, for all of the reasons you stated. That June was the earthquake and there will be aftershocks, if that makes sense.

Edit: I mean, to use the storm metaphor: if you know a hurricane is coming, you stock up and stay home (or evacuate, depending).

 

[The Mom]

Certainly the recent tragedies have had an effect but we're on page 43 and those two events have already been discussed quite a bit earlier on this thread.

I thought you were looking for something new.

I was actually looking for someone (such as a TA, etc) telling us that this is the case, and telling us why a client cancelled a vacation (if that's the case) rather than speculating. Or even people posting that they didn't go this year because they felt it was not affordable. Or perhaps they're just bored with WDW, and would rather go other places for a while. Without the usual debate about whether they are right or wrong to feel that way.

 

[SorcererMC]

I was actually looking for someone (such as a TA, etc) telling us that this is the case, and telling us why a client cancelled a vacation (if that's the case) rather than speculating. Or even people posting that they didn't go this year because they felt it was not affordable. Or perhaps they're just bored with WDW, and would rather go other places for a while. Without the usual debate about whether they are right or wrong to feel that way.

Travel agents have said in this thread or elsewhere that they are seeing no change in bookings or cancellations.

Edit: so it really is a conundrum still. I have wishful thinking on seeing new reports on the changes or what might be happening. US Tourism Office releases a monthly report, but I have found no equivalent for FL/Orlando, aside from the occasional press release.

Edit#2: I can't believe the lack of information on this that I am seeing in my own field, but when the events you listed above occur and how they impact tourism, so much is context-dependent, and WDW obviously has a significant impact for Orlando.

 

[ford91exploder]

Truth. Two weak recoveries (from 2002 and 2008 recessions) and consumer confidence still hasn't quite gone back up to pre-9/11 levels. That's 15 years of economic malaise for most people (but not all).

Good luck, digital natives!

What is this 'Recovery' you speak of, Live in New England and the recession hit in 1999 and never left.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I was actually looking for someone (such as a TA, etc) telling us that this is the case, and telling us why a client cancelled a vacation (if that's the case) rather than speculating. Or even people posting that they didn't go this year because they felt it was not affordable. Or perhaps they're just bored with WDW, and would rather go other places for a while. Without the usual debate about whether they are right or wrong to feel that way.

I think the numbers are way overblown. I do find it weird that one poster that was there recently said the crowds were a lot lower, while another poster there at the same time said the crowds, while lighter, were still heavy.

 

[SorcererMC]

What is this 'Recovery' you speak of, Live in New England and the recession hit in 1999 and never left.

 

[The Mom]

I think the numbers are way overblown. I do find it weird that one poster that was there recently said the crowds were a lot lower, while another poster there at the same time said the crowds, while lighter, were still heavy.

We're back to perception.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

We're back to perception.

I think so. Since there have been TAs state that they have had no cancellations and are actually reporting heavy demand, perception is the main issue.

 

[21stamps]

My fear is that FL tourism, and the local Orlando economy, is about to hit a crisis that they are not prepared for, in spite of the broader US economy, for all of the reasons you stated. That June was the earthquake and there will be aftershocks, if that makes sense.

Edit: I mean, to use the storm metaphor: if you know a hurricane is coming, you stock up and stay home (or evacuate, depending).

Our economy did hit a crisis, that no one was prepared for, 10 years ago. Fl tourism will be ok, I think at the end of the year it will all balance out. May be down a little, but not catastrophically.

I think the numbers are way overblown. I do find it weird that one poster that was there recently said the crowds were a lot lower, while another poster there at the same time said the crowds, while lighter, were still heavy.

So last year I was there over labor day and the following week. It was more crowded than I expected. Everyone I met while there said the same thing. Then I read online one person's account of how "no one was at the parks during that week and they felt like the had the place to themselves." They also posted photos of an empty looking fantasyland. About 20 people quickly chimed in with their own photos of crowds and experience during that week. Conclusion- I think time of day, before or after rain, etc has a lot to do with it. I also think that everyone has a different "perception" (word of the week )

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Our economy did hit a crisis, that no one was prepared for, 10 years ago. Fl tourism will be ok, I think at the end of the year it will all balance out. May be down a little, but not catastrophically.


So last year I was there over labor day and the following week. It was more crowded than I expected. Everyone I met while there said the same thing. Then I read online one person's account of how "no one was at the parks during that week and they felt like the had the place to themselves." They also posted photos of an empty looking fantasyland. About 20 people quickly chimed in with their own photos of crowds and experience during that week. Conclusion- I think time of day, before or after rain, etc has a lot to do with it. I also think that everyone has a different "perception" (word of the week )

Or agenda.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I think the numbers are way overblown. I do find it weird that one poster that was there recently said the crowds were a lot lower, while another poster there at the same time said the crowds, while lighter, were still heavy.

I find monitoring attraction wait times to be far less ambiguous if someone had the time and/or interest in collecting data points. Like I see 70 min for Splash, 5 for Pirates, 15 HM, 35 for Space Mountain now.

Any time I've checked recently, wait times seem down. But I haven't analyzed wait times as closely as necessary. Obviously any such analysis would need to leave out Soarin, Frozen, and Midway Mania. Saying "Main Street looks empty at 4 pm today" is pretty meaningless.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

You engaged me. You asked "Why?" in response to my comment to someone else:

"Tony the Tigger said: ↑
There's nothing "clear" about it. You are guessing, period.

These posts are cringe-worthy to me. You don't know the circumstances, means, or mindset of the family beyond what you can google, which is very presumptuous."

I responded to your "why" with the explanation that I thought my post was self-evident - and it was, because I already stated why if you read that post.

You snarkily responded again that apparently it was not clear to you, which prompted me to go into further detail for your benefit and no other reason. I even commented that I had no intention of investing so much into such a small topic. Then you responded by dismissing that effort.

Having no desire to repeat such nonsense and having taken zero value from our interaction, I asked you not to bother in the future.

Now you come back yet again with some critical drivel and misstatement of events.

You seem to be getting upset again, that was not my intent. I understand now that you have a lot invested emotionally in your support of the company in general and your posts in particular, I can only surmise the turmoil such negativity being openly displayed brings, I was initially questioning the truthfulness of your claims of how you were made to feel. However given these past responses I can see quite clearly you are a man of your word and were clearly upset at the speculation. I will ensure any responses I make in future take that into account and endeavour that all posts, where there is a risk of interacting with yourself, are pertinent, factually based and draw on substantive data, as heaven forbid anyone passes opinion on a internet message board that is based on half baked ideas and demented fan opinion. God knows what youd make of some of the lunacy in the arm chair imagineering forum.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I find monitoring attraction wait times to be far less ambiguous if someone had the time and/or interest in collecting data points. Like I see 70 min for Splash, 5 for Pirates, 15 HM, 35 for Space Mountain now.

Any time I've checked recently, wait times seem down. But I haven't analyzed wait times as closely as necessary. Obviously any such analysis would need to leave out Soarin, Frozen, and Midway Mania. Saying "Main Street looks empty at 4 pm today" is pretty meaningless.

Oh, I never said that crowds aren't lower, just not as low as some are saying. Since TAs are not reporting mass cancellations, it seems that the parks being less crowded might be more due to locals staying away, or more bought the florida silver pass with all the blackout dates, so they can't go anyway. Hard to tell.

 

[Daveeeeed]

Crowds are much higher today then they've been especially at Animal Kingdom & Epcot.

 

[21stamps]

Or agenda.

I just had to take myself out of another thread bc it's clear that "agenda" is all that matters.

This has been interesting to read what people assume certain areas of Florida economies and spending habits are. Although, ya know you can Google just about anything and twist it to fit your needs on almost any subject