Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[Nubs70]

I was simply stating that revenue is more important because it is, so we should not think that Disney is going to budget cut everything if they are making even more money. If you sell 100 hamburgers that cost a dollar, and another place sells 10 hamburgers that cost 20 which place would you invest in? Money is what matters from a business perspective not quantity, unless you can surpass the profit, but again it comes down to money not quantity, or attendance. For the people that are priced out now and used to go every year, then go every other year, and enjoy less crowds. It depends on your priorities.

All depends on the net margin.

As for WDW, put in industrial terms. WDW is charging job lot prices for an ever becoming commodity experience.

 

[Alejandro]

Well, this is a HUGE what if, say the less crowds, higher prices allowed the reduced staff to do better maintenance of the parks, and up the service while allowing some healthy re-investment into the parks.
I remember as a kid we'd go every other year (we fly in from Costa Rica), and I know we saved up for it because it was expensive, but it was spotless.
Has anyone converted 1980's ticket prices to today's?

 

[21stamps]

Well, this is a HUGE what if, say the less crowds, higher prices allowed the reduced staff to do better maintenance of the parks, and up the service while allowing some healthy re-investment into the parks.
I remember as a kid we'd go every other year (we fly in from Costa Rica), and I know we saved up for it because it was expensive, but it was spotless.
Has anyone converted 1980's ticket prices to today's?

I'll trade you my week in WDW for a week in Playa Hermosa!!!!

Yes, they have converted it several times. I don't remember what it was, but it boils down to the cost of a Kit Kat bar.

 

[TeriofTerror]

I'll trade you my week in WDW for a week in Playa Hermosa!!!!

Yes, they have converted it several times. I don't remember what it was, but it boils down to the cost of a Kit Kat bar.

I'm pretty sure any inflation calculator on the planet will tell you that's not true...

Edit: A one-day MK ticket in 1986 started at $21. Adjusted for inflation, that's $46.03. One-day MK tickets now start at $105 - well over double the adjusted cost. Which leads me to wonder: what exactly would you do for a Kit Kat Bar, let alone a Klondike Bar!

 

[RobidaFlats]

Has anyone converted 1980's ticket prices to today's?

Yes, they have converted it several times. I don't remember what it was, but it boils down to the cost of a Kit Kat bar.

I'm not sure how to take your response. A few options are:

1. You are being sarcastic.
2. You way overpay for Kit-Kats.
3. You are misrepresenting the facts.

I would consider @ParentsOf4 to be the preeminent numbers person on this forum, but even a quick google search for 1980s prices can offer an estimate. Just for an example, let's take November of 1985, where a single day was $21.50. Converted to 2016 dollars, that would be $48.00. The current price of a single "Value" day admission to the MK is $105.00.

That's one expensive candy bar.

 

[21stamps]

I'm pretty sure any inflation calculator on the planet will tell you that's not true...

Calculators are too factual. I meant to say "..kit Kat bar back then". If people want to remember Disney World of the 1980s as a place that was easily affordable to anyone and everyone- it's all good, I've given up on trying to prove otherwise.

 

[21stamps]

I'm not sure how to take your response. A few options are:

1. You are being sarcastic.
2. You way overpay for Kit-Kats.
3. You are misrepresenting the facts.

I would consider @ParentsOf4 to be the preeminent numbers person on this forum, but even a quick google search for 1980s prices can offer an estimate. Just for an example, let's take November of 1985, where a single day was $21.50. Converted to 2016 dollars, that would be $48.00. The current price of a single "Value" day admission to the MK is $105.00.

That's one expensive candy bar.

Lol.. Today is the first time I've had a Kit Kat bar in probably 5 years, I don't think it was worth the $1.25 that I paid for it. Just happened to be eating one when I read that. Yes, I was being sarcastic.

 

[21stamps]

I'm pretty sure any inflation calculator on the planet will tell you that's not true...

Edit: A one-day MK ticket in 1986 started at $21. Adjusted for inflation, that's $46.03. One-day MK tickets now start at $105 - well over double the adjusted cost. Which leads me to wonder: what exactly would you do for a Kit Kat Bar, let alone a Klondike Bar!

Wow I probably haven't had a Klondike Bar in 20 years, now you're going to make me go buy one!!

I just think inflation is the most overused and most misunderstood calculation.

If you apply the same calculator to most things in life you will find the same as the info listed above- most things, almost everything in life, have increased in price wayyyy beyond what "inflation" would dictate.

Ps. I wasn't joking about the Klondike bar.. That actually does sound really good right now!lol

 

[RobidaFlats]

Wow I probably haven't had a Klondike Bar in 20 years, now you're going to make me go buy one!!

I just think inflation is the most overused and most misunderstood calculation.

If you apply the same calculator to most things in life you will find the same as the info listed above- most things, almost everything in life, have increased in price wayyyy beyond what "inflation" would dictate.

Ps. I wasn't joking about the Klondike bar.. That actually does sound really good right now!lol

That is factually impossible. Inflation is measured by comparing prices of set products and services over time. The most commonly used is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The change in price of those items in the CPI is the rate of inflation, so by definition, the baskets of goods and service measured cannot exceed the inflation rate.

If you want to pull out the more in depth numbers (including/excluding fuel, etc.) then things can get a little more complicated. However, it is disingenuous to state that the cost of "almost everything in life" exceeds the rate of inflation. That is just impossible given the definition of inflation.

 

[21stamps]

That is factually impossible. Inflation is measured by comparing prices of set products and services over time. The most commonly used is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The change in price of those items in the CPI is the rate of inflation, so by definition, the baskets of goods and service measured cannot exceed the inflation rate.

If you want to pull out the more in depth numbers (including/excluding fuel, etc.) then things can get a little more complicated. However, it is disingenuous to state that the cost of "almost everything in life" exceeds the rate of inflation. That is just impossible given the definition of inflation.

Ok so, a car, a house, rent, an education. Let's just use those 4 widely "purchased" items.

Out of those 4 how many are priced at where an "adjusted for inflation" number would put them? Using 2016 and 1985

The main point is- people choose to spend their money or not. But with those 4 items- people are choosing to still spend. With Disney? People are choosing to still spend. Maybe some are being knocked out price wise, the same way people get knocked out of other "extras" as well.

But the main thing is- a company will charge a price based on what they think the market will pay. It's not a Disney exclusive practice.

Is the market unwilling to pay Disney World prices? TBD... I think the market is willing, others think the opposite. Only time will tell.

It's a fact that parents are spending more on their kids than ever before. For better or for worse. Everyone and anyone has been trying to capitalize on it.

 

[RobidaFlats]

Ok so, a car, a house, rent, an education. Let's just use those 4 widely "purchased" items.

Out of those 4 how many are priced at where an "adjusted for inflation" number would put them? Using 2016 and 1985

That's not how it works. I stated that by definition, "almost everything" cannot be decoupled from the rate of inflation. Calculating rates on a number of things does not prove or disprove that assertion. The problem is that if you cannot compare purchasing power with some set of goods and services being the baseline, i.e. the same adjusted cost, then you cannot have an inflation rate to exceed.

Also, it is irrelevant here since it doesn't actually address the issue at hand, but it is generally good form to do the math to make your argument. Making a statement and then leaving it to someone else to run the numbers is poor form.

 

[culturenthrills]

Well Tower was a walk on at 9 tonight and I'm standing in a perfect dead center spot for Star Wars A Galactic Spectacular that I got 10 minutes ago. It is dead for a summer night

 

[21stamps]

That's not how it works. I stated that by definition, "almost everything" cannot be decoupled from the rate of inflation. Calculating rates on a number of things does not prove or disprove that assertion. The problem is that if you cannot compare purchasing power with some set of goods and services being the baseline, i.e. the same adjusted cost, then you cannot have an inflation rate to exceed.

Also, it is irrelevant here since it doesn't actually address the issue at hand, but it is generally good form to do the math to make your argument. Making a statement and then leaving it to someone else to run the numbers is poor form.

I wasn't the one who quoted inflation in the first place- trying to prove a case that Disney is losing customers bc they have raised their pricing above what was comparable in 1986.
That isn't how a business sets their pricing. It also isn't how most, if any, consumers make a decision to purchase something.

Which is why I think it's overused and misunderstood. If someone cares to use inflation as a bullet point, then they should look at all of the "things" we buy these days..to keep it in context. Which is completely relevant.

A vacation purchase is first and foremost based on emotion. This is why I don't believe that Disney will fail anytime soon. Key word "I". You can believe whatever you wish.

I do apologize for the bad form of hoping someone would not need to have the numbers displayed for them.

Well Tower was a walk on at 9 tonight and I'm standing in a perfect dead center spot for Star Wars A Galactic Spectacular that I got 10 minutes ago. It is dead for a summer night

We walked on ToT over and over while people were seating for F! It's the main reason I think the dining combo is a must.

Do you think HS in general seems less crowded than the other parks? I'm still so interested in attendance for that park- if SW is bringing in more people than previous years, or if more are staying away bc of other closed attractions.

 

[RobidaFlats]

I wasn't the one who quoted inflation in the first place- trying to prove a case that Disney is losing customers bc they have raised their pricing above what was comparable in 1986.
That isn't how a business sets their pricing. It also isn't how most, if any, consumers make a decision to purchase something.

Which is why I think it's overused and misunderstood. If someone cares to use inflation as a bullet point, then they should look at all of the "things" we buy these days..to keep it in context. Which is completely relevant.

A vacation purchase is first and foremost based on emotion. This is why I don't believe that Disney will fail anytime soon. Key word "I". You can believe whatever you wish.

I do apologize for the bad form of hoping someone would not need to have the numbers displayed for them.

It's bedtime for me, and I think this conversation has reached its conclusion. However, I would to sum up what actually happened here:

1. A person asked if anyone had converted 1980s tickets into 2016 dollars.
2. You made a sarcastic response that was ambiguous.
3. I did my best to answer the initial person's question and confirmed that you were being sarcastic.
4. You stated that almost everything in life exceeded the rate of inflation.
5. I explained that this was impossible based upon the definition of the inflation calculation.
6. You responded with a few specific items that presumably (I didn't run the numbers) exceed the rate of inflation.
7. I pointed out that that proved nothing and my statement stands.
8. You brought in another conversation with someone else about extrapolating inflation to explain a loss of of customers by Disney.

It's kind of a great example of why discussions tend to go nowhere and people talk past each other. In an effort to answer someone's honest question, we got to witness a great round of windmill tilting with a sprinkling of logical fallacies for good measure.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I would consider @ParentsOf4 to be the preeminent numbers person on this forum, but even a quick google search for 1980s prices can offer an estimate. Just for an example, let's take November of 1985, where a single day was $21.50. Converted to 2016 dollars, that would be $48.00. The current price of a single "Value" day admission to the MK is $105.00.

I tend to use median income instead of inflation calculators. Consumers don't buy WDW tickets with Kit Kat bars (or a gallon of gas or a loaf of bread or a ...). They buy it with the cash they made as income.

1985 was a transitional period for WDW and DLR prices.

Michael Eisner became CEO in 1984 and implemented a series of huge price increases at the Disney theme parks from 1984 to 1987, the biggest ever. When it comes to Disney theme park prices, there's a "before 1984" and "after 1987".

I haven't recently graphed the data back to 1985, but below is something I prepared using 1990 as a basis, tracking ticket prices up till 2015:

For those unfamiliar with WDW history, the 1990s were "The Disney Decade". The company was investing heavily in its domestic theme parks during the decade. The 1990s also were the last decade of decent personal income growth.

By the way, the left y-axis is non-inflation adjusted dollars. Thus, for example, Disney was investing more absolute dollars in 1995 than it spent 20 years later in 2015. Those of you who think Disney is spending a lot at WDW today have no appreciation of the kind of money it used to spend.

In some ways, the 1990s represent WDW's Golden Age. Price increases remained inline with income gains while much of the money Guests were spending at the theme parks was being reinvested back into the theme parks.

Since 9/11, it's been pretty bad. Ticket prices are up, personal income gains have been weak, and theme park investment is down.

 

[21stamps]

I tend to use median income instead of inflation calculators. Consumers don't buy WDW tickets with Kit Kat bars (or a gallon of gas or a loaf of bread or a ...). They buy it with the cash they made as income.

1985 was a transitional period for WDW and DLR prices.

Michael Eisner became CEO in 1984 and implemented a series of huge price increases at the Disney theme parks from 1984 to 1987, the biggest ever. When it comes to Disney theme park prices, there's a "before 1984" and "after 1987".

I haven't recently graphed the data back to 1985, but below is something I prepared using 1990 as a basis, tracking ticket prices up till 2015:

View attachment 150863

For those unfamiliar with WDW history, the 1990s were "The Disney Decade". The company was investing heavily in its domestic theme parks during the decade. The 1990s also were the last decade of decent personal income growth.

By the way, the left y-axis is non-inflation adjusted dollars. Thus, for example, Disney was investing more absolute dollars in 1995 than it spent 20 years later in 2015. Those of you who think Disney is spending a lot at WDW today have no appreciation of the kind of money it used to spend.

In some ways, the 1990s represent WDW's Golden Age. Price increases remained inline with income gains while much of the money Guests were spending at the theme parks was being reinvested back into the theme parks.

Since 9/11, it's been pretty bad. Ticket prices are up, personal income gains have been weak, and theme park investment is down.

I agree with most of what your saying. I don't think your original post about the inflation was wrong. I just think the idea of it comparing to a ticket in 1986 is fanciful. I think we would all like everything to cost the same (adjusted for inflation) as things did back then. So like I said earlier- is the price sustainable? We'll see.
I don't have the answers, that's the only thing that I know for sure

 

[21stamps]

It's bedtime for me, and I think this conversation has reached its conclusion. However, I would to sum up what actually happened here:

1. A person asked if anyone had converted 1980s tickets into 2016 dollars.
2. You made a sarcastic response that was ambiguous.
3. I did my best to answer the initial person's question and confirmed that you were being sarcastic.
4. You stated that almost everything in life exceeded the rate of inflation.
5. I explained that this was impossible based upon the definition of the inflation calculation.
6. You responded with a few specific items that presumably (I didn't run the numbers) exceed the rate of inflation.
7. I pointed out that that proved nothing and my statement stands.
8. You brought in another conversation with someone else about extrapolating inflation to explain a loss of of customers by Disney.

It's kind of a great example of why discussions tend to go nowhere and people talk past each other. In an effort to answer someone's honest question, we got to witness a great round of windmill tilting with a sprinkling of logical fallacies for good measure.

I can't go through all of your numbered sections. I also totally understand where the disconnect was, I don't blame you for not reading all or most or even the past 10 pages in this thread. At all!
5&6 I'd like to answer though- if you're interested in how those calculations are made- you can spend time to learn about it. It's actually pretty crazy when you realize how much we spend compared to generations before us. It's also more than a little frightening.

 

[Nubs70]

That is factually impossible. Inflation is measured by comparing prices of set products and services over time. The most commonly used is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The change in price of those items in the CPI is the rate of inflation, so by definition, the baskets of goods and service measured cannot exceed the inflation rate.

If you want to pull out the more in depth numbers (including/excluding fuel, etc.) then things can get a little more complicated. However, it is disingenuous to state that the cost of "almost everything in life" exceeds the rate of inflation. That is just impossible given the definition of inflation.

Do not forget "Replacement Theory". Under Replacement Theory, it entirely possible to exceed CPI.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

This is what marketing professionals do every day.

They make presumptions from economic and demographic data.

not about individual families.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I think I read in here somewhere that you live in Ft Lauderdale. Several years ago, before the crash, the Sun Sentinal had an article about the percentage of income that South Floridians pay for their housing. I forget what the number was- but it was quite high, much higher than the national average. It's also not the only place like that.
What people perceive that a lifestyle may be and what said lifestyle can include, based on someone else's income, doesn't always equal reality.

Thank you for backing up my argument.