Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[Disone]

Hotels have nothing to do with park attendance, hotels were built to capitalize on the park guests. If they are coming here we should have hotels for them to stay in. The parks drive the hotels not the other way around. Disney over the years has added to the experience by become an over all resort but at their core they are still dependent on park attendance as their business driver. Why else would you stay in a hotel in Orlando if you weren't going to the parks? Orlando offers nothing except going to theme parks.

This used to be true, however it's not as true anymore. At over 25,000 Disney on hotel rooms on property, that does not include things like the Swan and Dolphin and Hotel Plaza, Hotel occupancy does impact Park attendance. Parks and hotels have a little bit more of a symbiotic relationship now. It is why Disney continues to invest heavily in DVC which ensures occupancy for the next 50 years.

Don't compare Universal need in the past ten years to Disney. If universal did not go nuts and build a ton they be closed.

This is a undervalued point. During the eighties and nineties Disney already expanded at a rate that Universal is currently trying to do to keep up.

You are changing the context from natl tourism trends to local econ indicators. Fine. Disney has sufficient market share (~70%) of an oligopoly market (or duopoly if you prefer) and therefore they command the price points - it's their game. It's why Universal automatically raises their ticket prices right after Disney. If they keep playing the way that they have been, they are going to lose share one way or the other. They've been 'sitting pretty' for a long time....it's not sustainable.

There have been a handful of time where Universal has been the first to raise their prices. It is not always Disney that does so first.

Go nuts?? Adding a brand new E-Ticket every year is what you consider going nuts? On top of that, you said "IF"... Well. They did. Sooo... I mean.. What is your point?

I'm guessing his point is that Disney's enjoying the advantages of the Investments it made during the eighties and nineties when it didn't have so much competition. Those Investments have now paid off big-time in that they have put Disney so far ahead that for all of universal investments has had in the past 10 years they really still are not nipping at the heels of Disney.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

WDW's is seeing a complete collapse in attendance far exceeding what the rest of the market is seeing.

Things are going to get ugly. This isn't a travel stoppage like 9/11. This is Disney ing off their faithful customers.

 

[jlsHouston]

Irrelevant. Who goes online to a message board when at Disney or Orlando ?!

I do....

 

[King Panda 77]

Might be a bit early to figure the UK into how quiet it is as summer holidays haven't started over here yet.

 

[alphac2005]

WDW's is seeing a complete collapse in attendance far exceeding what the rest of the market is seeing.

Things are going to get ugly. This isn't a travel stoppage like 9/11. This is Disney ****ing off their faithful customers.

Two of our boys went out to California with my mom a few weeks back and visited Disneyland while my wife and I took our little one to Universal and the MK a month prior. We just returned from a week in Washington, D.C., which was their first trip there, and as much as they enjoy theme parks, Washington was a huge winner with our kids.

Prices at WDW that are not justifiable to anyone that has any fiscal sense or cares about their bank account coupled with poor quality and an utter disregard for their customer, or rather contempt, I think it's exactly what you're thinking, they have hit that breaking point and their long cherished customers are bailing in droves.

 

[jlsHouston]

Hotels have nothing to do with park attendance, hotels were built to capitalize on the park guests. If they are coming here we should have hotels for them to stay in. The parks drive the hotels not the other way around. Disney over the years has added to the experience by become an over all resort but at their core they are still dependent on park attendance as their business driver. Why else would you stay in a hotel in Orlando if you weren't going to the parks? Orlando offers nothing except going to theme parks.

I can buy into your logic about the purpose of tiered pricing. And until recently I would chime in agreement why would anyone come to Orlando except for the Theme Parks.
Then I stayed at the Four Seasons Orlando. That's practically a vacation experience in itself..

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I can buy into your logic about the purpose of tiered pricing. And until recently I would chime in agreement why would anyone come to Orlando except for the Theme Parks.
Then I stayed at the Four Seasons Orlando. That's practically a vacation experience in itself..

That's the joy of an actual luxury experience.

And a lot of Disney fans believe that that is what they are getting at The Grand. Haha!

 

[jlsHouston]

Huh? Do you really not understand the correlation between Disney's revenue, hotel occupancy and attendance? Disney wants full hotels and that is a far bigger concern than a specific segment of day-visitors. It's doubtful that hotel guests and one-day ticket purchases are significantly overlapping groups. If it was the ticket strategy as you claim then there would also not be lower numbers at the hotels.

I don't think TWDC business strategies have made their resort occupancies a priority. Only if you count converting rooms to DVC. I've seen too many increases in maintenance and service issues over the past 3 of 5 years I've been staying on property. Almost every visit back to a property leaves me with the feeling my previous stay at that particular resort was better. The exceptions have been SSR which always meets my expectations and the POLY right after the refurb was about 80% completed. I'd like to include BWI with these two but I think I need to revisit once the construction is complete on the Boardwalk to the restaurants and see if the changes they've made are an improvement for guest experience.

 

[jlsHouston]

That's the joy of an actual luxury experience.

And a lot of Disney fans believe that that is what they are getting at The Grand. Haha!

The GF is horrible. We were just there last month. The lack of organization at the Front Desk is now compounded with the Concierge Desk closed due to consolidation. Valet was better organized and more helpful. Gaspirilla's menu offerings are shameful, and only exceeded by the surly, unhelpful staff in that QS location. The room we had at Big Key was dated with bathroom facility issues. In general, it felt like they didn't have the property staffed fully until we were over run with security.
I was really disappointed with that resort. BWI, even with construction was much much better than the GF.
But Four Seasons delivered in every way.. Even during a Tropical Storm.

 

[jlsHouston]

WDW's is seeing a complete collapse in attendance far exceeding what the rest of the market is seeing.

Things are going to get ugly. This isn't a travel stoppage like 9/11. This is Disney ****ing off their faithful customers.

I love WDW, but except for a few exceptions this is pretty much what I've seen beginning in 2014, and the 2 visits I've made so far in 2016 it's dramatically spiraling in terms of service versus pricing.

 

[WDWVolFan]

I was there last weekend and can tell you it felt empty for summer. 15 minutes before the electrical parade there were open spots all over frontierland and Liberty square. Wait times were overly exaggerated also. 30 minute wait was really like 15. Epcot felt really empty excluding frozen. 30 minute waits for soarin and test track.

There will be a lot less Brazilians this year. The economy in Brazil has gone down the crapper and it's going to get worse.
I live in the US but my family is still there. My aunt came earlier this year and shortened her trip by a lot, and only came because she had promised the trip to my cousin.

 

[SorcererMC]

There have been a handful of time where Universal has been the first to raise their prices. It is not always Disney that does so first.

Yes - only recently has Universal done that.

My point re: WDW pricing strategy is that Disney is a price-setter....in many ways they act as though they have a monopoly, b/c they have such a large market share relative to Universal (and SeaWorld). As such, they command the price and at what 'quantity' offered, and can maximize profit by differentiating the price. Where Disney has erred, perhaps, is not knowing their price and demand elasticity, ie US customers aren't willing to pay such a high price for the product offered and will go elsewhere (to Universal, to another vacation destination, etc). or skip going altogether. Which was fine for a long time b/c intl tourists avg spend is at least 3x that of the avg US tourist.

 

[SorcererMC]

Again, to think Disney wanted LESS customers is plain ludicrous. What company ever come up with a business plan and said "I have an idea, lets raise prices to go above a threshold and thin the crowds out?" Said none ever. Just name one other business that wanted less paying customers? Just one.

Most businesses operate on the knowledge that not everyone is willing to pay the price offered, and as such they 'want less paying customers'. It only becomes a concern if they are not profit-maximizing and revenue is falling.

 

[Disone]

Yes - only recently has Universal done that.

My point re: WDW pricing strategy is that Disney is a price-setter....in many ways they act as though they have a monopoly, b/c they have such a large market share relative to Universal (and SeaWorld). As such, they command the price and at what 'quantity' offered, and can maximize profit by differentiating the price. Where Disney has erred, perhaps, is not knowing their price and demand elasticity, ie US customers aren't willing to pay such a high price for the product offered and will go elsewhere (to Universal, to another vacation destination, etc). or skip going altogether. Which was fine for a long time b/c intl tourists avg spend is at least 3x that of the avg US tourist.

No, not recently. there have been a handful of times going back to 2002-ish I know once was in the months after 911, and it had been months since Universal raise their price, and everyone kept waiting for Disney to do so. When asked to comment about it, Al Weiss replied only that at this time, WDW was holding on its price. Your point is still 100% valid. But just wanted to point out Universal has occasionally being first, and there was a time that Disney under Al Weiss let them lead for a period of time.

 

[SorcererMC]

WDW's is seeing a complete collapse in attendance far exceeding what the rest of the market is seeing.

Things are going to get ugly. This isn't a travel stoppage like 9/11. This is Disney ****ing off their faithful customers.

In many ways, Orlando has just experienced a 'localized' 9/11, which will further weaken domestic demand for them. Since 2014, there has been a decline in the high spending intl tourists (across the board - Canada, UK, and Brazil), and an increase in domestic tourists to Orlando, and FL (ie, domestic tourists are driving the record growth in tourism; Orlando receives ~2/3 of all FL visitors). It wouldn't surprise me if WDW is seeing more of a decline than Universal given the negative publicity surrounding recent events - they have an oversize share of the market. If you know more specific to WDW attendance that you can share, please do.

And don't forget about the toxic algae.

 

[SorcererMC]

No, not recently. there have been a handful of times going back to 2002-ish I know once was in the months after 911, and it had been months since Universal raise their price, and everyone kept waiting for Disney to do so. When asked to comment about it, Al Weiss replied only that at this time, WDW was holding on its price. Your point is still 100% valid. But just wanted to point out Universal has occasionally being first, and there was a time that Disney under Al Weiss let them lead for a period of time.

ok, good. I definitely wasn't thinking that far back.

 

[SorcererMC]

Disney has a big group think problem and I'm not sure there are enough people with real talent left to turn the boat so to speak.

Definitely a concern. Decisions that will be made over the next two years will impact their long-term growth, Iger won't have to clean up the mess, so to speak. Good question on the available talent pool.

 

[ford91exploder]

Consumers turning their backs on an industry leader does present rather suddenly and it is very difficult to reverse.

And it's happened time and time again, Unfortunately Disney seems unable to learn from the mistakes of others, Good friend of mine observed the key ability of a professional is to learn from the mistakes of others. Disney for decades was a solidly middle class experience unfortunately a insular group of overpaid executives have forgotten this and tried to market a much diminished experience relative to even 5 years ago, Not even going to compare the current experience to the 'Disney Decade' as a premium experience based on pricing only. And it's failing at an exponential rate and the global macroeconomic conditions are accelerating the process.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

In many ways, Orlando has just experienced a 'localized' 9/11, which will further weaken domestic demand for them. Since 2014, there has been a decline in the high spending intl tourists (across the board - Canada, UK, and Brazil), and an increase in domestic tourists to Orlando, and FL (ie, domestic tourists are driving the record growth in tourism; Orlando receives ~2/3 of all FL visitors). It wouldn't surprise me if WDW is seeing more of a decline than Universal given the negative publicity surrounding recent events - they have an oversize share of the market. If you know more specific to WDW attendance that you can share, please do.

And don't forget about the toxic algae.

WDW's numbers started collapsing in April and has been having a whirlpool effect on the entire market in Orlando. Some faithful Disney fans are doing Universal instead. Most are just avoiding Orlando all together this year.

Universal's numbers are down in line with the greater market. They are not experiencing the collapse that WDW is seeing.

 

[SorcererMC]

WDW's numbers started collapsing in April and has been having a whirlpool effect on the entire market in Orlando. Some faithful Disney fans are doing Universal instead. Most are just avoiding Orlando all together this year.

Universal's numbers are down in line with the greater market. They are not experiencing the collapse that WDW is seeing.

Very good/ thanks for sharing your insight. No question then that April trends are being magnified by recent events. (Again I think Disney's response in addressing it has been poor, the same old marketing tricks aren't going to work).