JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
Uh oh. I think we're hitting the "wall". That or J&J is having a significant impact. But my gut tells me we're about to hit the wall of the anti-vaxxers
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
- Start date
-
- Tags
- coronavirus covid covid-19
- Status
Uh oh. I think we're hitting the "wall". That or J&J is having a significant impact. But my gut tells me we're about to hit the wall of the anti-vaxxers
Still planning on the August trip?
As I think that's our biggest difference. You have hope and see the bright side and assume community spread will be low by the middle of August. I have concern, and while I was holding out that you're correct, this morning I moved our 7/31 reservation to June 2022. It's possible we're both right, I think there's 2 weeks between my old date and your date. It's possible that's enough time to make a difference. There's always hope.
I'm going mid August. Unless things get much worse, I'm keeping the trip.
Our travel party includes 3 kids.. 16, 14, and 14. The 16yo is vaccinated as are all the adults. I suspect the 14yo's will be vaccinated by then.
If things remain the same as they are now, we will have a trip with tons of resort time. We'll make the best of the parks, masks and respecting social distancing. Lack of entertainment and fireworks will be disappointing, but it will be a different type of trip. We will take advantage of Food & Wine at Epcot.
I'm still crossing my fingers that there will be some normalcy by mid August. Higher restaurant capacity, perhaps some fireworks/fantasmic, and maybe even outdoor mask mandate lifted. But I'm still expecting mid August, even under better scenarios, to still have limitations. (I still believe even if Covid disappeared by June 1, Disney is keeping a lid on spending until October 1 and wouldn't rush to bring stuff back, which is why we are getting a partial-FOTLK).
JD80
Well-Known Member
There aren't that many anti vaxxers. We just need to make them universally easier to access across the board. Some places don't allow walk ins for example. Some people still have to drive a distance to get to and can't because of work.
As a country, we haven't made a true effort to get people vaccinated because so many people were self motivated and our supplies were low. Once that flips which we're at in many places now, you'll start seeing marketing campaigns by companies and the government.
Just wait until you start seeing "FREE (keyword) COVID Shots at Walmart" and any other sort of incentive. Couldn't do that before because of an unreliable supply chain.
As a country, we haven't made a true effort to get people vaccinated because so many people were self motivated and our supplies were low. Once that flips which we're at in many places now, you'll start seeing marketing campaigns by companies and the government.
Just wait until you start seeing "FREE (keyword) COVID Shots at Walmart" and any other sort of incentive. Couldn't do that before because of an unreliable supply chain.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
JnJ is definitely having an impact since it was logistically much easier to administer.
I would be perfectly fine with continuing a pace of 3M vaccines a day, maybe even drop off some from there. As we get less and less people looking for the vaccine the pace will slow. That’s Ok. It may pick up some in the next few weeks again once 12-15 year olds get formally approved.
OlderCastMember
New Member
Thanks for your kind reply. Glad you got a new job and got to visit the Parks! Best wishes!
OlderCastMember
New Member
ABQ
Well-Known Member
Just had our bi-weekly update for the state from the cabinet secretary of Health and Human Services and the Secretary of Health and they pointed out that though cases are plateauing, about 220 per day on average, and the same with hospitalizations, about 120 beds in use (we're a tiny state), that the severity of cases are not as bad as they once were. They pointed out that as expected, more of the hospitalization are from people between 18 and 40, the average length of stay is 4 days when in the past it was 8-10. Hoping the same is found across the nation.
OlderCastMember
New Member
Laughing Gravy, thanks for the kind thoughts.
Disney has sated that their objectives go beyond profit with responsibility towards not only shareholders but guests, society and cast members. If they don't mean it, would rather have them say they are only interested in the money. I hope that isn't the case, as I was working for Disney to provide magical experiences for our guests.
JAKECOTCenter
Well-Known Member
ABQ
Well-Known Member
They had an hypothesis on the case plateau as well. A combination of two things, the vaccine working well and more and more people just believing the worst is passed and are gathering in large groups more, not wearing masks more and therefor, contracting the virus. Personally, I have not seen people without masks in places I shouldn't, but, I'm sure it happens. Only saving grace us we are vaccinating at a very high rate in our state. If it weren't for that, the cases would be going up rather than flatlining.
We didn't want to wait any longer. It's already going to be difficult booking the replacement. Finding a rental house that's still available for the same time period in drivable location with activities we'll enjoy.
The alternatives were:
- Give up WDW for this summer now, book something else now.
- Wait until later, give up WDW for this summer and not be able to book something else because they're all already booked.
- Wait until later, and the spread goes down, hope Disney expands the value offering, go and accept what exists.
Bonus, it's not CANCELLED, just delayed. All the operation bugs, SEVERAL new rides, all the shows/hours/fireworks, the whole works will be back when we do go.
You've got an extra 2 weeks calendar time, and I'll guess an extra month of positive outlook time on me, maybe more. If I had to guess, your time horizon for deciding is much closer to your balance due date. Nothing wrong with that. We've all go different options.
See, you can both agree on something. Hugs all around. Err, maybe just thoughtful head nods from 6 feet apart all around.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I’m in a slightly different position. We had this whole trip booked for August 2020 in January 2020. I have DVC points I’m using for the room and we booked our flights with Southwest and bought park tickets before the annual price increase. The only thing not paid for was food (which is not insignificant at WDW). When we cancelled I was able to bank the DVC points and Disney extended the park tickets a year and Southwest gave me a flight credit good until September 2021. Basically it was almost all paid for but we really needed to reschedule by September to not have to jump through a lot of hoops. So August 2021 it is. If I end up cancelling I’ll have to rent out some DVC points which shouldn’t be an issue and I think Disney will let me roll the park tickets forward. The flight vouchers I may have to eat or fly somewhere else. So not a train wreck if it happens but I really need to decide by 30 days out for the DVC points, that’s my main time window which is why I said I have time.We didn't want to wait any longer. It's already going to be difficult booking the replacement. Finding a rental house that's still available for the same time period in drivable location with activities we'll enjoy.
The alternatives were:
While 3 would have been nice, there's much risk, even if spread is all down, there's the value proposition. Option 2 is the nightmare, home for a week because we waited to long to book something else. So, we're doing 1, it's very risk adverse. We'll feel a little bad if we get there and option 3 would have been better. But, we would feel way worse picking 3 if we get there and it's not. It's like buying government bonds instead of private bonds. You know the return is worse, but there's no worry you lose it all. Sometimes you buy them, sometimes you buy the junk bonds and roll the dice.
- Give up WDW for this summer now, book something else now.
- Wait until later, give up WDW for this summer and not be able to book something else because they're all already booked.
- Wait until later, and the spread goes down, hope Disney expands the value offering, go and accept what exists.
Bonus, it's not CANCELLED, just delayed. All the operation bugs, SEVERAL new rides, all the shows/hours/fireworks, the whole works will be back when we do go.
You've got an extra 2 weeks calendar time, and I'll guess an extra month of positive outlook time on me, maybe more. If I had to guess, your time horizon for deciding is much closer to your balance due date. Nothing wrong with that. We've all go different options.
Since this trip was paid for and I wasn’t certain it would happen I did double down on vacations this year. We rented a house in the Outerbanks in June so we can drive down and have limited contact with other people. If Disney gets cancelled again we at least got away and if not we just go on 2 trips this Summer. I can use the time off.
MickeyLuv'r
Well-Known Member
If you were referencing my post, then i think you misunderstood what I meant by buying in bulk. I don't shop at Costco, so I absolutely didn't mean shopping at Costco.
I was referring only to small deals my local stores offer. One can of beans is $1, but they often have small deals on 5 cans of beans. Chicken parts are $5 per pound, but a whole chicken is $3 per pound, and the family 5pound pack of chicken is often on sale for $2 per pound.
To me, 3 pounds of meat = buying in bulk, because I can make 3 pounds last over a week. I cook up the 3 pounds, then spilt it up into portions to last however long I need that meat to last to my next paycheck.
Every day, I do something different with it, if possible. Like spices or honey or mixing it with other leftovers.
Southwest cancelled our flights not us as luck would have it. When they did it, the voucher expiration was set to September 2022. Just like you, we're all in on the airfare already, but we got an extra year out of it. Your existing dollar commitment and restrictions definitely makes holding out a better option. Sunk costs and all.
We were practically planning at the exact same time, we booked the original trip in January 2020 too. Double coincidence, I was searching the Outerbanks last night to replace the trip, for all the same reasons as you. There's very little available now for the that week. We need to get our act together and book the replacement stuff this week probably or it's going to change from little to nothing.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
We booked the house back in October so there was more availability but I did notice recently all the weeks were booked for the Summer.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
Just throwing in something that could possibly point to a more optimistic outlook and good news. I do not know much about this particular person on Twitter, but there is a ton of data contained in this thread, and her analysis seems pretty good. And she is an infectious disease specialist with UC San Francisco and San Francisco General Hospital. That being said, it's still a random person on Twitter, so take it for what you will. None-the-less, I think it's worth your time to click through and read the entire thread with her analysis.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
If US follows Israel's orders by June or July then we will go back to normal as outdoor masks will be lift for good by early summer as indoor masks will lift later by late summer/fall.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
- Status