I’m in a slightly different position. We had this whole trip booked for August 2020 in January 2020. I have DVC points I’m using for the room and we booked our flights with Southwest and bought park tickets before the annual price increase. The only thing not paid for was food (which is not insignificant at WDW). When we cancelled I was able to bank the DVC points and Disney extended the park tickets a year and Southwest gave me a flight credit good until September 2021. Basically it was almost all paid for but we really needed to reschedule by September to not have to jump through a lot of hoops. So August 2021 it is. If I end up cancelling I’ll have to rent out some DVC points which shouldn’t be an issue and I think Disney will let me roll the park tickets forward. The flight vouchers I may have to eat or fly somewhere else. So not a train wreck if it happens but I really need to decide by 30 days out for the DVC points, that’s my main time window which is why I said I have time.We didn't want to wait any longer. It's already going to be difficult booking the replacement. Finding a rental house that's still available for the same time period in drivable location with activities we'll enjoy.
The alternatives were:
While 3 would have been nice, there's much risk, even if spread is all down, there's the value proposition. Option 2 is the nightmare, home for a week because we waited to long to book something else. So, we're doing 1, it's very risk adverse. We'll feel a little bad if we get there and option 3 would have been better. But, we would feel way worse picking 3 if we get there and it's not. It's like buying government bonds instead of private bonds. You know the return is worse, but there's no worry you lose it all. Sometimes you buy them, sometimes you buy the junk bonds and roll the dice.
- Give up WDW for this summer now, book something else now.
- Wait until later, give up WDW for this summer and not be able to book something else because they're all already booked.
- Wait until later, and the spread goes down, hope Disney expands the value offering, go and accept what exists.
Bonus, it's not CANCELLED, just delayed. All the operation bugs, SEVERAL new rides, all the shows/hours/fireworks, the whole works will be back when we do go.
You've got an extra 2 weeks calendar time, and I'll guess an extra month of positive outlook time on me, maybe more. If I had to guess, your time horizon for deciding is much closer to your balance due date. Nothing wrong with that. We've all go different options.
Since this trip was paid for and I wasn’t certain it would happen I did double down on vacations this year. We rented a house in the Outerbanks in June so we can drive down and have limited contact with other people. If Disney gets cancelled again we at least got away and if not we just go on 2 trips this Summer. I can use the time off.