Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

Estrogen/Progesterone use in the 6 was n=1 per a previous post with CDC/FDA data. So, only one in the population of the six know clots. That surprised me as I was expecting to be n=6 or n=5.

That being said, this pause is irresponsible and will erode confidence in not only the J&J vaccine, but all of them in my opinion. The risk of clots from an estrogen/progesterone birth control regimen is 1 in 1000, and the medical community deems that is an acceptable risk. The risk for a clot from the J&J is practically 1 in 1,000,000 and we shut down an entire vaccination campaign using this vaccine. Completely irresponsible in my opinion and it was unacceptable for the panel to decline to issue a recommendation today.

One of the reasons I heard they wanted to the pause was to be sure that doctors know not to use heparin if they encounter this type of clotting on the future. Heparin is a normal treatment for blood clots, but its dangerous for this specific type of clot. There is some indication that the person who died was treated with heparin.

 

[jinx8402]

Estrogen/Progesterone use in the 6 was n=1 per a previous post with CDC/FDA data. So, only one in the population of the six know clots. That surprised me as I was expecting to be n=6 or n=5.

That being said, this pause is irresponsible and will erode confidence in not only the J&J vaccine, but all of them in my opinion. The risk of clots from an estrogen/progesterone birth control regimen is 1 in 1000, and the medical community deems that is an acceptable risk. The risk for a clot from the J&J is practically 1 in 1,000,000 and we shut down an entire vaccination campaign using this vaccine. Completely irresponsible in my opinion and it was unacceptable for the panel to decline to issue a recommendation today.

I listened to the call in the background this afternoon, and a few things jumped out to me on why they are pausing.

These adverse reactions were from doses more than 2 weeks ago (prior to march 30). Since the clots are occurring 7-14 days later they need to see how many more occur with the last few weeks of vaccinations. Of that, over 50% of the vaccines occured in the last two weeks. So so far, in totality it's 6 confirmed in the roughly 3 million doses administered before March 30. On top of that, I think they are trying to determine if it stays with affecting only females aged 18-48. Of the 7 million doses, only 1.5 million doses went to that segment.

So saying 1 in a million is not really correct. As of now, it's 6 out of 1,500,000, and that includes the 52% that aren't pass the 2 week period. So more like 6 out of 750,000. They said it is 3x higher than the baseline incidence rate for the clots in young women.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think there may possibly be more to the story with them halting it right now because 6 seems so low based on how many have gotten the shot. I hope it’s just a precaution though but I’m just as surprised as most

regardless this isn’t going to help confidence levels with all of this

I have my doubts that there’s some sort of conspiracy. If that was the case someone would have leaked it by now. The doctors and experts at these agencies aren’t all going to cooperate and cover up something that is life threatening. Too much at risk for them individually to be part of a cover up or conspiracy and little to no benefit.

I think it’s far more likely that it’s routine and once they finish the investigation and release the results they will continue the vaccinations. Way, way more likely to catch Covid and have a blood clot issue than get one from this vaccine.

 

[correcaminos]

I think there may possibly be more to the story with them halting it right now because 6 seems so low based on how many have gotten the shot. I hope it’s just a precaution though but I’m just as surprised as most

regardless this isn’t going to help confidence levels with all of this

I don't think there is. What they think is transparency though is going to cause distrust sadly. I think this is just the same kind of thing as AZ-Oxford though.

Would I get the J&J? Yep, but I will say I'm on BCP so I already have a higher risk anyway.

 

[JoeCamel]

One of the reasons I heard they wanted to the pause was to be sure that doctors know not to use heparin if they encounter this type of clotting on the future. Heparin is a normal treatment for blood clots, but its dangerous for this specific type of clot. There is some indication that the person who died was treated with heparin.

I'm wondering if the normal heparin treatment for the clots causes more lung leakage? That seems to be the mechanism of death in many cases in that the lungs cannot do enough oxygen transfer to maintain the cells.

 

[GoofGoof]

Israel down to a 7 day moving average of 2 cases per 100,000 people. The US equivalent of 6,620 cases a day. Israel at 59% of population with 1 dose. US at 37%. We are about 70M first doses away from that level vaccinated and based on our current pace we are about 30 days away from reaching that level. If our covid cases follow their trend we should be in great shape by Mid-May....even without JnJ doses. Once back they will only speed up our progress. Keep the faith...trust the process

 

[fgmnt]

I woke up on Tuesday thinking the pause was pretty stupid, but the more I think of it, the idea of waiting 2 weeks to make sure that the blood clot number doesn't shift from statistical noise to a targeted, if small correlation can build confidence in vaccines in the medium term. Also, we have a somewhat steady stream of supply matching demand in a lot of the country already, so while it definitely can hurt us at a macro level, at the individual level, people who actively want to get vaccinated should not experience any delay beyond a few days. I know in Virginia, some places were immediately shifting back to Pfizer doses for appointments on Tuesday. And considering we have not hit what I hope will be a wall of declining cases yet, everyone getting vaccinated is likely/hopefully still taking the same public health safety measures they were a week ago.

The one unfortunate thing is these assumptions don't factor in how consistently irresponsible clickbait media will run this story to tank vaccine confidence. Some of my allegedly bright coworkers are scared now over what's really a bunch of bunk headlines and nothing more.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I just don't believe we'll have a UK or Israel style drop in cases. Covid is just too widespread. The UK and Israel had a lockdown advantage too

 

[Touchdown]

Israel is now functioning at essentialy no restrictions. They aren’t locked down anymore. We will get there, in the next 2 weeks cases should start to drop in this country. We have already plateaued in new cases.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Israel is now functioning at essentialy no restrictions. They aren’t locked down anymore. We will get there, in the next 2 weeks cases should start to drop in this country. We have already plateaued in new cases.

Are they no longer masking and social distancing or just not locked down?

 

[James J]

Are they no longer masking and social distancing or just not locked down?

Just not locked down. They're still masking and social distancing, but may lift the outdoor mask mandate this month. There are also caps on gatherings.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I listened to the call in the background this afternoon, and a few things jumped out to me on why they are pausing.

These adverse reactions were from doses more than 2 weeks ago (prior to march 30). Since the clots are occurring 7-14 days later they need to see how many more occur with the last few weeks of vaccinations. Of that, over 50% of the vaccines occured in the last two weeks. So so far, in totality it's 6 confirmed in the roughly 3 million doses administered before March 30. On top of that, I think they are trying to determine if it stays with affecting only females aged 18-48. Of the 7 million doses, only 1.5 million doses went to that segment.

So saying 1 in a million is not really correct. As of now, it's 6 out of 1,500,000, and that includes the 52% that aren't pass the 2 week period. So more like 6 out of 750,000. They said it is 3x higher than the baseline incidence rate for the clots in young women.

Just to put things in a little more perspective, the risk of thrombotic thrombocytic purpura ("TTP", aka, the "clots" we're talking about) from all causes, including unknown, is about 1 in 100,000.

 

[seascape]

There is some good news on the Covid19 front even though the number of cases are still increasing in the US. There are now as n average of 71,511 cases ccx a day in the US, or 21.6 per 100,000. The good news is 3 of the top 10 states are not in the Northeast. In fact NJ is down to 41 and NY is down to 35. Now the bad news for most of us is Florida is up to 30 but 22.59% of Florida's cases are from Miami-Dade.

 

[DisneyCane]

Just not locked down. They're still masking and social distancing, but may lift the outdoor mask mandate this month. There are also caps on gatherings.

Some of the things done or not done in this pandemic are so nonsensical. If there was never an outdoor mask mandate there would be an immeasurable difference in their overall cases. With 60% of their population having begun vaccination they "may" lift an outdoor mandate that was never needed in the first place.

It was clear from very early on that outdoors is very low risk for spread and there never was any science behind any outdoor measures of any kind. Sure there will be some small risk and some number of people could be infected outdoors but likely not from pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers. If somebody is infected and coughing up a storm close to people outside I'm sure they can spread it.

Before somebody brings up the Rose Garden event, it is most likely that the spread took place indoors at other side gatherings than at the outdoor event. Some newspaper had made a picture where they had a view of the crowd and put the people who ended up infected in either color or black and white (I can't remember which). Many of them weren't seated anywhere near each other so it makes no sense that the spread took place at that time.

I wish Disney would make their mask policy either indoor only or indoor and while in a queue or something like that. I can't speak for everybody but my experience was that the worst part of wearing a mask at WDW was while fast paced walking around outside. I could definitely notice the airflow restriction at times. It is more annoying when you know you are experiencing an unpleasant sensation for no good reason.

Before I was vaccinated, you could have filled MK to the reduced capacity with people who were COVID positive and I wouldn't have thought twice about being around them while walking around outside.

 

[DisneyCane]

I ran the data off of yesterday's vaccination report and it was encouraging that the under 45 demographics seem to be increasing in the numbers of newly vaccinated relative to the 45-64. Here is the breakdown by age group showing the newly vaccinated and the percentage of that population vaccinated to date (16-24 is going to be slightly off in percentage because the population data I have is 15-24):

Age	New 4/14	Percent
16-24	22498​	12.2%​
25-34	24778​	18.1%​
35-44	25513​	27.1%​
45-54	23905​	35.8%​
55-64	22949​	52.6%​
65-74	9579​	82.0%​
75-84	4623​	82.0%​
85+	1416​	68.6%​
Total	135261​	35.2%​

The percentage of all 65+ is now at 80.3%. I'd expect this to slowly creep up over 85% and get close to 90%.

 

[ABQ]

Just not locked down. They're still masking and social distancing, but may lift the outdoor mask mandate this month. There are also caps on gatherings.

Seems those masking are not in the majority. Some, but not very much.

 

[Journey_On]

"BlogMickey.com spoke with multiple managers who confirmed the change and said that most of the hand washing stations should be removed now or will be very shortly."

I first noticed this change on Sunday. I used them on every visit to the park and did not see a single one this week at any of the parks or Disney Springs. Really enjoyed them while they lasted, but I get it.

 

[GaBoy]

Agree. I don't know if this will finally change things and they will become permanent - we all know they should be. But I have a feeling that they will end up disappearing.

I believe that Disney will cut every corner possible to try to make up the massive losses. We have always washed hands and brought our own hand sanitizer before COVID and I bet Disney bets that folks will manage their own protection based on an individual's concern. I already see free masks disappearing around here at stores and sanitizer bottles staying empty. If anything comes from this it may only be that people who didn't wash their hands may wash them a little more... just a little.

 

[Touchdown]

Just to put things in a little more perspective, the risk of thrombotic thrombocytic purpura ("TTP", aka, the "clots" we're talking about) from all causes, including unknown, is about 1 in 100,000.

This is not TTP, it’s much closer to a condition called HIT(T) or Heparin Induced Thrombocytopenia (Thrombosis.). Which is a rare side effect some people have to the blood thinner Heparin. People who get this reaction are confirmed to have it when they have thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) and have antibodies to platlet factor 4 (PF4.) The people who had clots in Europe after AZA had PF4 antibodies.

 

[GoofGoof]

I just don't believe we'll have a UK or Israel style drop in cases. Covid is just too widespread. The UK and Israel had a lockdown advantage too

It’s coming, it will just take time. We also need to ease back on restrictions and not just go full stop. Not a light switch, a dial. If we hit the end of May and have 60% of the population vaccinated and cases are really dropping we can’t just stop all restrictions immediately. Dial back some a little at a time but things like masks and distancing will still be around. Otherwise if we remove all restrictions it will take a lot longer for cases to drop. Hopefully if people can hold out and stay disciplined by July 1 we are in a position to relax even masks and most distancing. That’s the hope anyway. People who think life will return to normal by May are not living in reality. It takes time, but the vaccines are working and will continue to as we get most people vaccinated.