Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Thought of this post when I saw a segment on one of our local news broadcasts here

New Mexico physicist believes state has technically reached herd immunity

A New Mexico physicist believes the state has already hit herd immunity.

www.kob.com

Seems a local physicist to my area thinks NM already has reached herd immunity, but, his thoughts won't drive anything as our governor just points to a fluff piece the NY Times put out about her and still insists on the 70-90% vaccination rate. Which, though a nice thing to hope for is just so unlikely to ever be achieved, so , I hope the physicist is correct.

Even if we get kids 12+ approved soon and the number of people eligible increases to 280M and we get 70% of those people vaccinated that’s still just under 60% of the total population. It’s not realistic to expect 70-90% of the total population to be vaccinated before all kids are eligible which is likely the Fall. We would need 83% of eligible 12+ people to take the vaccine to reach 70% vaccinated. Not likely to happen.

 

[sullyinMT]

Frozen Ever After queue will extend to Germany if they don't do something

At least they won't be caught on the wrong side of the bridge to bring out the Taco Truck for Harmonious.

 

[GoofGoof]

Frozen Ever After queue will extend to Germany if they don't do something

Distancing on rides is already being relaxed. Parties are sitting side by side on FoP again. To me, they really need to bring the shows back. There's literally no place to put more people standing in front of the Chinese theater for MMRR.

It’s going to make for a miserable guest experience if they don’t do something and Disney knows this so that’s why I think change is in the works. Lots of rumors flying around about shows and night entertainment coming back. I think a lot more will come out soon as we approach the start of the Summer season. I said this a few weeks back when others said It was too late to call CMs back for the Summer. Disney has to make up for lost time and they are getting ready to ramp back up if demand is there and assuming the vaccine rollout continues on pace.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It’s going to make for a miserable guest experience if they don’t do something and Disney knows this so that’s why I think change is in the works. Lots of rumors flying around about shows and night entertainment coming back. I think a lot more will come out soon as we approach the start of the Summer season. I said this a few weeks back when others said It was too late to call CMs back for the Summer. Disney has to make up for lost time and they are getting ready to ramp back up if demand is there and assuming the vaccine rollout continues on pace.

I’ll take the shows over the people standing on my feet and ankles any day.

 

[Patcheslee]

The data now shows clearly that those who are vaccinated are protected not only from symptoms, but from catching and spreading it as well. Three major studies so far have shown the same thing. Unfortunately, the messaging on this is absolutely horrible but, no, you don't generally have to worry about a vaccinated person catching or spreading Covid.

Unfortunately some news stations contribute to the "eh don't need it" attitude. I've seen alot of "breakthrough" reports for attention grabbing headlines, but once someone does the math it's a a fraction .007% of fully vaccinated people of which .0005% were hospitalized or died. But it looks more dreadful to say 7% of the 5800 breakthrough cases were hospitalized or died.

 

[DisneyCane]

Glad to see the airlines still lying to everyone about maintaining distance in the airports. It’s really not that hard if they put a bit of effort into it.

Not that it matters with the recent information about surface spread but American was touting "touch free" check in and bag check using the app. I did everything in advance, scanned the QR code at the Kiosk and proceeded to go through what appeared to be a process to maximize the number of times you had to touch the screen.

Then it printed paper boarding passes that I didn't ask for.

 

[HarperRose]

At least they won't be caught on the wrong side of the bridge to bring out the Taco Truck for Harmonious.

The taco truck doesn't go anywhere. They are permanently stationed in WS...and they are hideous.

 

[sullyinMT]

The taco truck doesn't go anywhere. They are permanently stationed in WS...and they are hideous.

Exactly. So if the line stretches to Germany, you don’t need to worry about being on the wrong side of an open bridge.
They are an eyesore that I’m not sure will be cured by a curtain of water.

 

[havoc315]

Even if we get kids 12+ approved soon and the number of people eligible increases to 280M and we get 70% of those people vaccinated that’s still just under 60% of the total population. It’s not realistic to expect 70-90% of the total population to be vaccinated before all kids are eligible which is likely the Fall. We would need 83% of eligible 12+ people to take the vaccine to reach 70% vaccinated. Not likely to happen.

Probably correct -- which makes it harder to emulate Israel or the UK. Both Israel and the UK has maintained significant restrictions while their numbers went down. And UK is getting 95%+ vaccinations among eligible age groups. Believe Israel is over 80%, but I'm not sure.

It will take us longer to reach UK/Israel type case reduction when we aren't taking the same mitigation measures and we aren't vaccinated the same portion of the population.
I still think we will get there, but it sadly will take longer than it should.

Israel's rolling 7-day average is now under 200 cases per day.... Equivalent to about 6000 cases per day in the US.

 

[ABQ]

Not that it matters with the recent information about surface spread but American was touting "touch free" check in and bag check using the app. I did everything in advance, scanned the QR code at the Kiosk and proceeded to go through what appeared to be a process to maximize the number of times you had to touch the screen.

Then it printed paper boarding passes that I didn't ask for.

Well if Disney takes the new info on surface spread to heart, which may be why they are removing the hand washing stations from the parks, perhaps airline check-in will return to the hotels when they reopen? I assume that operated independently from Magical Express.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Maybe by late June or July we can see masks and social distancing will be gone for good aka relaxing soon? Then by fall/winter the pandemic will be end in USA this year, but the worldwide will still have the pandemic for a few years.
so IAAPA Expo 2021 is back in this November, I wonder masks and social distancing may be gone for good by then? I guess masks and social distancing may be gone by late summer or fall. Also I checked Kentucky Kingdom's operation and it did not have Halloween event on October yet? Maybe they have to wait until masks and social distancing will be lift for good soon by late summer. @GoofGoof I don't think we will have any more surges, spikes or waves (summer, fall, and winter) because vaccines are working so everything will go back to normal as possible soon. As masks and social distancing will be gone forever, as concerts, events, movie theaters, parks, etc will go back to normal by late summer or fall.

 

[correcaminos]

Well if Disney takes the new info on surface spread to heart, which may be why they are removing the hand washing stations from the parks, perhaps airline check-in will return to the hotels when they reopen? I assume that operated independently from Magical Express.

It did. We used it often to send luggage to the airport and no MDE reservations. You did have to pick it up upon arrival though.

Probably correct -- which makes it harder to emulate Israel or the UK. Both Israel and the UK has maintained significant restrictions while their numbers went down. And UK is getting 95%+ vaccinations among eligible age groups. Believe Israel is over 80%, but I'm not sure.

It will take us longer to reach UK/Israel type case reduction when we aren't taking the same mitigation measures and we aren't vaccinated the same portion of the population.
I still think we will get there, but it sadly will take longer than it should.

Israel's rolling 7-day average is now under 200 cases per day.... Equivalent to about 6000 cases per day in the US.

The end result with vaccination creating few cases will depend on vaccines administered, not mitigation though. A mix of both makes the interim numbers vary more.

 

[GoofGoof]

Probably correct -- which makes it harder to emulate Israel or the UK. Both Israel and the UK has maintained significant restrictions while their numbers went down. And UK is getting 95%+ vaccinations among eligible age groups. Believe Israel is over 80%, but I'm not sure.

It will take us longer to reach UK/Israel type case reduction when we aren't taking the same mitigation measures and we aren't vaccinated the same portion of the population.
I still think we will get there, but it sadly will take longer than it should.

Israel's rolling 7-day average is now under 200 cases per day.... Equivalent to about 6000 cases per day in the US.

Israel is not on lockdown and hasn’t been for over a month. They have less than 55% of the population fully vaccinated....yet they are down under 2 cases per 100,000. They aren’t at 70-90% vaccinated, yet that still seems to be the target a lot of people claim we need to get to. There’s a disconnect between expectations and reality. As I have been saying for a while now we don’t need to reach some unattainable level of vaccination to start seeing a positive impact on cases.

 

[GoofGoof]

The end result with vaccination creating few cases will depend on vaccines administered, not mitigation though. A mix of both makes the interim numbers vary more.

Yep, agreed. When I brought up the UK recently I was shot down and told their cases look good because of lockdowns and not vaccinations but the rest of Europe moved into various levels of lockdowns again too and their cases look far worse and their vaccination level is far lower. It’s a combination of mitigation and vaccination but clearly based on a year plus of experience now the vaccinations are making a huge impact that we never achieved with mitigation alone.

 

[disneygeek90]

Israel is not on lockdown and hasn’t been for over a month. They have less than 55% of the population fully vaccinated....yet they are down under 2 cases per 100,000. They aren’t at 70-90% vaccinated, yet that still seems to be the target a lot of people claim we need to get to. There’s a disconnect between expectations and reality. As I have been saying for a while now we don’t need to reach some unattainable level of vaccination to start seeing a positive impact on cases.

What Israel has been doing though is using the vaccine passports. Certain restaurants and bars are only allowing patrons that are vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

Israel is not on lockdown and hasn’t been for over a month.

But they utilize passports -- Non-vaccinated people can't go into many of the public places that are open to vaccinated.
So again, much tighter restrictions than the US.

yet they are down under 2 cases per 100,000. They aren’t at 70-90% vaccinated,

Most recent estimated are that 85% of Israelis over 16 have either vaccination or infection immunity.



Going to be difficult to reach 85% in the US without 75%+ of adults getting vaccinated.

yet that still seems to be the target a lot of people claim we need to get to. There’s a disconnect between expectations and reality. As I have been saying for a while now we don’t need to reach some unattainable level of vaccination to start seeing a positive impact on cases.

Unquestionable, we should see a significant positive impact on cases even if we don't reach herd immunity. But to get quickly to the same level as Israel and the UK, we need to do better than we are currently doing. Otherwise, it will take longer to reach that point where we have under 5,000 new cases per day (the equivalent of where Israel should be very soon).
Unless we do better than we are currently doing, we won't hit under 5000 cases per day by the end of May. (if we were 6 weeks behind Israel but on the same track, then we would hit this level by the end of May).

 

[havoc315]

It did. We used it often to send luggage to the airport and no MDE reservations. You did have to pick it up upon arrival though.


The end result with vaccination creating few cases will depend on vaccines administered, not mitigation though. A mix of both makes the interim numbers vary more.

Mix of both brings cases down more quickly.

Saw 1 virologist/epidemeologist describe is succinctly: "Vaccines prevent new outbreaks, mitigation/restrictions end existing outbreaks."
That's an oversimplification but has some truth.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

What Israel has been doing though is using the vaccine passports. Certain restaurants and bars are only allowing patrons that are vaccinated.

This is correct. They rolled them out awhile ago and it was why restaurants, sporting events..etc asked for the green pass, is what there cards were called. It helped out greatly with many things but now seems to be hitting a wall because the country is so well vaccinated that a few restaurants and businesses have stopped asking for them. Be interesting to see how it plays out but definitely worked in the beginning and had much support from the citizens.

 

[GoofGoof]

But they utilize passports -- Non-vaccinated people can't go into many of the public places that are open to vaccinated.
So again, much tighter restrictions than the US.




Most recent estimated are that 85% of Israelis over 16 have either vaccination or infection immunity.



Going to be difficult to reach 85% in the US without 75%+ of adults getting vaccinated.





Unquestionable, we should see a significant positive impact on cases even if we don't reach herd immunity. But to get quickly to the same level as Israel and the UK, we need to do better than we are currently doing. Otherwise, it will take longer to reach that point where we have under 5,000 new cases per day (the equivalent of where Israel should be very soon).
Unless we do better than we are currently doing, we won't hit under 5000 cases per day by the end of May. (if we were 6 weeks behind Israel but on the same track, then we would hit this level by the end of May).

The Bloomberg tracker shows 55% in Israel fully vaccinated. The 85% from the attached tweet excludes children and then adds in naturally infected. The US will hit 50% of adults started vaccination by next week and 60% by then end of April or beginning of May. If you add in the estimated 20% plus naturally infected (like the 85% from that tweet does) we will be around 80% in less than a month. I think counting naturally infected is a flawed way to do it because we have no way of knowing how much overlap exists between naturally infected and vaccinated so some people will be double counted.

The vaccine passports in Israel are not as widespread as that. They are not used for museums or shopping malls or retail stores and people can still go to work and go to a neighbors house for a party or a meal. They are really used for clubs, bars, sporting events and indoor dining. There are still a lot of activities people can do freely without the passport. I’m not sure we can quantify how much of a difference that makes.

 

[Lilofan]

The Bloomberg tracker shows 55% in Israel fully vaccinated. The 85% from the attached tweet excludes children and then adds in naturally infected. The US will hit 50% of adults started vaccination by next week and 60% by then end of April or beginning of May. If you add in the estimated 20% plus naturally infected (like the 85% from that tweet does) we will be around 80% in less than a month. I think counting naturally infected is a flawed way to do it because we have no way of knowing how much overlap exists between naturally infected and vaccinated so some people will be double counted.

The vaccine passports in Israel are not as widespread as that. They are not used for museums or shopping malls or retail stores and people can still go to work and go to a neighbors house for a party or a meal. They are really used for clubs, bars, sporting events and indoor dining. There are still a lot of activities people can do freely without the passport. I’m not sure we can quantify how much of a difference that makes.

My family has visited Israel and its a nice place to visit. I have read Israel is currently closed to tourists trying to visit