Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I just don't believe we'll have a UK or Israel style drop in cases. Covid is just too widespread. The UK and Israel had a lockdown advantage too

It’s coming, it will just take time. We also need to ease back on restrictions and not just go full stop. Not a light switch, a dial. If we hit the end of May and have 60% of the population vaccinated and cases are really dropping we can’t just stop all restrictions immediately. Dial back some a little at a time but things like masks and distancing will still be around. Otherwise if we remove all restrictions it will take a lot longer for cases to drop. Hopefully if people can hold out and stay disciplined by July 1 we are in a position to relax even masks and most distancing. That’s the hope anyway. People who think life will return to normal by May are not living in reality. It takes time, but the vaccines are working and will continue to as we get most people vaccinated.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Some of the things done or not done in this pandemic are so nonsensical. If there was never an outdoor mask mandate there would be an immeasurable difference in their overall cases. With 60% of their population having begun vaccination they "may" lift an outdoor mandate that was never needed in the first place.

It was clear from very early on that outdoors is very low risk for spread and there never was any science behind any outdoor measures of any kind. Sure there will be some small risk and some number of people could be infected outdoors but likely not from pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers. If somebody is infected and coughing up a storm close to people outside I'm sure they can spread it.

Before somebody brings up the Rose Garden event, it is most likely that the spread took place indoors at other side gatherings than at the outdoor event. Some newspaper had made a picture where they had a view of the crowd and put the people who ended up infected in either color or black and white (I can't remember which). Many of them weren't seated anywhere near each other so it makes no sense that the spread took place at that time.

I wish Disney would make their mask policy either indoor only or indoor and while in a queue or something like that. I can't speak for everybody but my experience was that the worst part of wearing a mask at WDW was while fast paced walking around outside. I could definitely notice the airflow restriction at times. It is more annoying when you know you are experiencing an unpleasant sensation for no good reason.

Before I was vaccinated, you could have filled MK to the reduced capacity with people who were COVID positive and I wouldn't have thought twice about being around them while walking around outside.

Some problems with Disney only requiring masks indoors or while in line is that people would constantly be touching their masks as they put them away or take them out each time they enter or exit spaces where they are required and many people would then complain about how tired they are of having to put it on and take it off (ignoring that they still have the option to not take it off in the first place). And then you get the people who conveniently "forget" they need to put it on when going inside or getting on a line. Enforcement is much easier for the Cast Members when there are no excuses for not wearing it.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I just don't believe we'll have a UK or Israel style drop in cases. Covid is just too widespread. The UK and Israel had a lockdown advantage too

To me, the case count does not mean all that much. The data could be wrong; over counted, multiple days counted as one, missed days, and let’s not forget folks who never got tested, got COVID, and recovered at home.

The real things to watch is the hospitalizations and deaths. This are the true measures. Yes COVID deaths are probably over counted, but these are still good measures of progress.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Are those that are vaccinated still required to wear masks and social distance because it would be hard to know who’s following the rules and who isn’t or are they still required to wear masks because they could still catch it?

If they can still catch it, won’t that always be the case? Covid isn’t ever fully going away I don’t think and I can’t help but think just because I’m indoor sitting at a restaurant table that I have a covid protection bubble around me. Don’t forget the indoor airport 6ft apart and then on a plane you sit right next to someone.

There is just a lot that is so questionable about all of this and I think that’s why there is a lot of vaccine hesitation as well

 

[Tom P.]

Are those that are vaccinated still required to wear masks and social distance because it would be hard to know who’s following the rules and who isn’t or are they still required to wear masks because they could still catch it?

If they can still catch it, won’t that always be the case? Covid isn’t ever fully going away I don’t think and I can’t help but think just because I’m indoor sitting at a restaurant table that I have a covid protection bubble around me. Don’t forget the indoor airport 6ft apart and then on a plane you sit right next to someone.

There is just a lot that is so questionable about all of this and I think that’s why there is a lot of vaccine hesitation as well

The data now shows clearly that those who are vaccinated are protected not only from symptoms, but from catching and spreading it as well. Three major studies so far have shown the same thing. Unfortunately, the messaging on this is absolutely horrible but, no, you don't generally have to worry about a vaccinated person catching or spreading Covid.

 

[DisneyCane]

Are those that are vaccinated still required to wear masks and social distance because it would be hard to know who’s following the rules and who isn’t or are they still required to wear masks because they could still catch it?

If they can still catch it, won’t that always be the case? Covid isn’t ever fully going away I don’t think and I can’t help but think just because I’m indoor sitting at a restaurant table that I have a covid protection bubble around me. Don’t forget the indoor airport 6ft apart and then on a plane you sit right next to someone.

There is just a lot that is so questionable about all of this and I think that’s why there is a lot of vaccine hesitation as well

Logically it's because there's no way to know if somebody is vaccinated. People like Fauci probably think that if masks do something and vaccines do a lot then it's better to have a lot + something than just a lot.

While it is still possible to become infected after being vaccinated, that shouldn't be something that leads to hesitancy because a vaccinated person is nearly 100% protected from serious illness or death.

There isn't that much distancing in the airport recently. Lots of people (me included) sitting back to back in the gate area. My last two flights were on American Airlines and there was no distancing during boarding to speak of. Just the normal board by group process.

 

[sullyinMT]

Some good news on the Pfizer front, regarding children and vaccination. From the head of Cincinnati Children's vaccine research center:

"Work on the trials is moving so quickly that Dr. Robert Frenck, director of the Gamble Vaccine Research Center at Cincinnati Children’s, believes it's 'even a possibility that we'll see a vaccine (allowed for children) as low as age 5' by August or September. The vaccine could be approved for children as young as 2 by December or January."

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/ne...-late-summer-cincinnati-childrens/7187714002/

Are those that are vaccinated still required to wear masks and social distance because it would be hard to know who’s following the rules and who isn’t or are they still required to wear masks because they could still catch it?

If they can still catch it, won’t that always be the case? Covid isn’t ever fully going away I don’t think and I can’t help but think just because I’m indoor sitting at a restaurant table that I have a covid protection bubble around me. Don’t forget the indoor airport 6ft apart and then on a plane you sit right next to someone.

There is just a lot that is so questionable about all of this and I think that’s why there is a lot of vaccine hesitation as well

I think it's a little bit of both. Don't expose the vaccinated to variants as much as possible, while still being able to do things you maybe didn't before. So the mask and distance helps do that for now while community transmission is still high. It might not make our curve the steep cliff Israel or the UK have been, but I think most Americans will accept the compromise once they're vaccinated. Like you, they'll feel safer at restaurants or maybe a movie. Also to your point, if it's only just under half of adults and 1/3 of all Americans that have even started getting vaccinated to date, blanket policies are much better to enforce.

 

[Heppenheimer]

This is not TTP, it’s much closer to a condition called HIT(T) or Heparin Induced Thrombocytopenia (Thrombosis.). Which is a rare side effect some people have to the blood thinner Heparin. People who get this reaction are confirmed to have it when they have thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) and have antibodies to platlet factor 4 (PF4.) The people who had clots in Europe after AZA had PF4 antibodies.

Ah, my bad. I had seen TTP floating around in the news feeds.

But wait, they're attributing the thrombi themselves to HIT? Wouldn't HIT be the consequence of treatment they were given after the clots developed, not the original provoking factor? Unless the vaccines themselves contained heparin, for some reason, but given that HIT is a well-known condition, it would seem to be almost malpractice to include it in a vaccine, knowing that hundreds of millions of people would receive the vaccine , which would guarantee more than a few cases of HIT.

Or, is the thought that the vaccine stimulates the same antibodies that trigger HIT?

Surprisingly, my daily medical news feeds have been relatively silent on this, other than the suspension of the administration.

 

[GoofGoof]

Are those that are vaccinated still required to wear masks and social distance because it would be hard to know who’s following the rules and who isn’t or are they still required to wear masks because they could still catch it?

If they can still catch it, won’t that always be the case? Covid isn’t ever fully going away I don’t think and I can’t help but think just because I’m indoor sitting at a restaurant table that I have a covid protection bubble around me. Don’t forget the indoor airport 6ft apart and then on a plane you sit right next to someone.

There is just a lot that is so questionable about all of this and I think that’s why there is a lot of vaccine hesitation as well

It’s a good question. Here’s my take. At some point when we hit a tipping point and the vast majority of people are vaccinated we will see requirements for masks and distancing relaxed overall. In some cases, like a place of work, it may be possible to ease things sooner for only the vaccinated people, but for public settings it’s not practical to know who is vaccinated and who isn’t so everyone will have to wait until it’s safe to remove restrictions.

I don’t think vaccinated people have to wear a mask because of the small risk that they can get infected. They still have to wear masks because there’s no practical way to differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinated so we assume everyone in public spaces is unvaccinated and everyone wears a mask. In the future assuming we get to 70%+ of the eligible population vaccinated we will turn towards assuming everyone is vaccinated and relax the restrictions. This assumes cases drop as expected. The way I see it is we wear masks and we distance so that we don’t get Covid and we don’t pass it on to others. The vaccines are highly effective at both preventing infection and preventing spread as well.

 

[sullyinMT]

Ah, my bad. I had seen TTP floating around in the news feeds.

But wait, they're attributing the thrombi themselves to HIT? Wouldn't HIT be the consequence of treatment they were given after the clots developed, not the original provoking factor? Unless the vaccines themselves contained heparin, for some reason, but given that HIT is a well-known condition, it would seem to be almost malpractice to include it in a vaccine, knowing that hundreds of millions of people would receive the vaccine , which would guarantee more than a few cases of HIT.

Or, is the thought that the vaccine stimulates the same antibodies that trigger HIT?

Surprisingly, my daily medical news feeds have been relatively silent on this, other than the suspension of the administration.

There is thought, I believe, that there is some interaction with the PF4 antibody. I'm not sure why it seems to be occurring with the vector vaccines (AZ & JnJ), as you're correct they don't specifically contain heparin. So the mimicking of, or confusion with, TTP isn't so far fetched with the drop in platelets and thrombi.

 

[Nubs70]

Ah, my bad. I had seen TTP floating around in the news feeds.

But wait, they're attributing the thrombi themselves to HIT? Wouldn't HIT be the consequence of treatment they were given after the clots developed, not the original provoking factor? Unless the vaccines themselves contained heparin, for some reason, but given that HIT is a well-known condition, it would seem to be almost malpractice to include it in a vaccine, knowing that hundreds of millions of people would receive the vaccine , which would guarantee more than a few cases of HIT.

Or, is the thought that the vaccine stimulates the same antibodies that trigger HIT?

Surprisingly, my daily medical news feeds have been relatively silent on this, other than the suspension of the administration.

It's the similarity to HIT and the PF4 commonality that is raising concerns. Is the vaccine vector the causal factor?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Logically it's because there's no way to know if somebody is vaccinated. People like Fauci probably think that if masks do something and vaccines do a lot then it's better to have a lot + something than just a lot.

While it is still possible to become infected after being vaccinated, that shouldn't be something that leads to hesitancy because a vaccinated person is nearly 100% protected from serious illness or death.

There isn't that much distancing in the airport recently. Lots of people (me included) sitting back to back in the gate area. My last two flights were on American Airlines and there was no distancing during boarding to speak of. Just the normal board by group process.

Glad to see the airlines still lying to everyone about maintaining distance in the airports. It’s really not that hard if they put a bit of effort into it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

This is not TTP, it’s much closer to a condition called HIT(T) or Heparin Induced Thrombocytopenia (Thrombosis.). Which is a rare side effect some people have to the blood thinner Heparin. People who get this reaction are confirmed to have it when they have thrombocytopenia (low platelet count) and have antibodies to platlet factor 4 (PF4.) The people who had clots in Europe after AZA had PF4 antibodies.

OK, so now I think I have it...

How Some COVID-19 Vaccines Could Cause Rare Blood Clots

Regulatory agencies in the US and around the world are scrambling to determine the risk of potentially lethal but rare blood clots linked to adenovirus vaccines.

www.medscape.com

HIT is essentially TTP with a definitively attributable cause, so both are invoked here. From what I read, the thought is that the viral vectors used in the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZenica vaccines have triggered the same antibody involved in HIT.

The article notes that about 67 people in Europe have experienced the blood clots. If the cause is thought to be the same between the two vaccines, the greater numbers in Europe should help us tease out the relevant patient characteristics, and hopefully, risk-stratify who can and who should not receive these vaccines.

I have treated patients before for cerebral venous thrombi, but none of those cases were caused by TTP or HIT specifically.

 

[danlb_2000]

I woke up on Tuesday thinking the pause was pretty stupid, but the more I think of it, the idea of waiting 2 weeks to make sure that the blood clot number doesn't shift from statistical noise to a targeted, if small correlation can build confidence in vaccines in the medium term. Also, we have a somewhat steady stream of supply matching demand in a lot of the country already, so while it definitely can hurt us at a macro level, at the individual level, people who actively want to get vaccinated should not experience any delay beyond a few days. I know in Virginia, some places were immediately shifting back to Pfizer doses for appointments on Tuesday. And considering we have not hit what I hope will be a wall of declining cases yet, everyone getting vaccinated is likely/hopefully still taking the same public health safety measures they were a week ago.

The one unfortunate thing is these assumptions don't factor in how consistently irresponsible clickbait media will run this story to tank vaccine confidence. Some of my allegedly bright coworkers are scared now over what's really a bunch of bunk headlines and nothing more.

If you look at the VAERS database there have been a lot of serious conditions and deaths co-incident with getting the vaccine, most of which probably have no connection the the vaccine itself. I believe the difference with this one is that there is some reason to believe that there actually is a connection, thus the pause to better understand what is going on.

 

[danlb_2000]

There is some good news on the Covid19 front even though the number of cases are still increasing in the US. There are now as n average of 71,511 cases ccx a day in the US, or 21.6 per 100,000. The good news is 3 of the top 10 states are not in the Northeast. In fact NJ is down to 41 and NY is down to 35. Now the bad news for most of us is Florida is up to 30 but 22.59% of Florida's cases are from Miami-Dade.

Sort of a repeat of last Spring, cases initially surged in the northeast, but then dropped off, but surged in Florida and other parts of the south.

 

[ABQ]

We usually focus on Israel as the front runner in vaccine distribution and things continue to go well there, but changing gears a minute to look at the UK situation. Just under 48% of the total population has received 1 dose. They are focusing on first doses and then going back to do dose 2 later. Cases and deaths have really come down:
View attachment 547626
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Daily cases reported today were 1,730 which is about 2.5 cases per 100,000 or adjusted for population size the US equivalent of 8,275 cases. On the death front the 7 day daily average is down to 36 or 0.05 per 100,000 which would be the US equivalent of 166 deaths a day. The point is things are looking pretty darn good with just under half the population vaccinated. There’s a lot of focus on herd immunity and projections of needing 70-90% of the population vaccinated but as we can see from Israel and the UK the impacts of the vaccines are felt at a far lower percentage vaccinated. That’s not to say either place has reached full and lasting herd immunity, but they are both looking good and hopefully a glimpse into the US future state in 4-6 weeks time as we catch up on vaccinations. We are actually on pace to reach 50%+ of the whole population with at least 1 shot by the first week of May based on the current pace.

Thought of this post when I saw a segment on one of our local news broadcasts here

New Mexico physicist believes state has technically reached herd immunity

A New Mexico physicist believes the state has already hit herd immunity.

www.kob.com

Seems a local physicist to my area thinks NM already has reached herd immunity, but, his thoughts won't drive anything as our governor just points to a fluff piece the NY Times put out about her and still insists on the 70-90% vaccination rate. Which, though a nice thing to hope for is just so unlikely to ever be achieved, so , I hope the physicist is correct.

 

[Touchdown]

Ah, my bad. I had seen TTP floating around in the news feeds.

But wait, they're attributing the thrombi themselves to HIT? Wouldn't HIT be the consequence of treatment they were given after the clots developed, not the original provoking factor? Unless the vaccines themselves contained heparin, for some reason, but given that HIT is a well-known condition, it would seem to be almost malpractice to include it in a vaccine, knowing that hundreds of millions of people would receive the vaccine , which would guarantee more than a few cases of HIT.

Or, is the thought that the vaccine stimulates the same antibodies that trigger HIT?

Surprisingly, my daily medical news feeds have been relatively silent on this, other than the suspension of the administration.

It’s HIT like, creating the same antibodies. But it’s caused by (presumably) the adenovirus vector itself. But practically it means we need to treat those people just like HIT (ie argatoban bridge to warfarin and a 5-10 day hospital stay.)

 

[GoofGoof]

Based on the stories posted on the front page today it looks like Disney is starting their ramp up for the Summer season. A few weeks back they started expanding hours, now they have added significant capacity to the park reservation system and a large number of CMs are being called back to work. This isn’t really shocking as most of us expected a large ramp up this Summer, only a handful of people were predicting little or no change. As expected the call backs of CMs have started as we get closer to the start of the Summer season. More to come. It will be interesting to see which entertainment options return and when. I know the big one everyone is waiting for is a return of fireworks.

With a definite large increase in park capacity I do wonder if a change to the distancing and/or the return of some people eating shows will be announced formally some time soon. They can’t possibly cram more people in the parks without increasing attraction capacity and the only 2 ways to do that is to relax distancing on ride vehicles and/or bring back large, people eating shows.

 

[ABQ]

Based on the stories posted on the front page today it looks like Disney is starting their ramp up for the Summer season. A few weeks back they started expanding hours, now they have added significant capacity to the park reservation system and a large number of CMs are being called back to work. This isn’t really shocking as most of us expected a large ramp up this Summer, only a handful of people were predicting little or no change. As expected the call backs of CMs have started as we get closer to the start of the Summer season. More to come. It will be interesting to see which entertainment options return and when. I know the big one everyone is waiting for is a return of fireworks.

With a definite large increase in park capacity I do wonder if a change to the distancing and/or the return of some people eating shows will be announced formally some time soon. They can’t possibly cram more people in the parks without increasing attraction capacity and the only 2 ways to do that is to relax distancing on ride vehicles and/or bring back large, people eating shows.

Frozen Ever After queue will extend to Germany if they don't do something

 

[disneygeek90]

Based on the stories posted on the front page today it looks like Disney is starting their ramp up for the Summer season. A few weeks back they started expanding hours, now they have added significant capacity to the park reservation system and a large number of CMs are being called back to work. This isn’t really shocking as most of us expected a large ramp up this Summer, only a handful of people were predicting little or no change. As expected the call backs of CMs have started as we get closer to the start of the Summer season. More to come. It will be interesting to see which entertainment options return and when. I know the big one everyone is waiting for is a return of fireworks.

With a definite large increase in park capacity I do wonder if a change to the distancing and/or the return of some people eating shows will be announced formally some time soon. They can’t possibly cram more people in the parks without increasing attraction capacity and the only 2 ways to do that is to relax distancing on ride vehicles and/or bring back large, people eating shows.

Distancing on rides is already being relaxed. Parties are sitting side by side on FoP again. To me, they really need to bring the shows back. There's literally no place to put more people standing in front of the Chinese theater for MMRR.