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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I think that's about as good of a summary as you can get.
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
In ten years, a lot of folks are going to lie about how they behaved and what they believed in 2020. I fear this will be especially true as we learn more about the long term effects of the disease and the source of a lot of outbreaks.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
An interesting poll, but it doesn't capture "how have you gone out of the house". For instance, we were in the 81% that didn't visit relatives for 2 months. But at some point, we felt that seeing them outside their house from >10ft away was a reasonable compromise to be made. So we are in the "have visited family" category, but not in the same way we did 6 months ago.
The amount of people eating in resturants is downright frightening though.
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
So a lot of the outbreaks that are forcing lockdowns in the northeast are being traced to Myrtle Beach and Florida in a general sense. When (not, I suspect, if) a major outbreak gets traced back to WDW, how do they respond?
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
GoofGoof
Premium Member
They probably won’t. There’s never going to be a way to ”prove” people got sick at WDW. If that type of story comes out and Disney responds defensively it makes it a bigger story. Their best hope for that type of story to blow over is to ignore it, decline to comment and wait for the next story that takes its place.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
A measles outbreak was traced back to Disneyland a couple of years ago. That story blew over because the outbreak did not receive national coverage. It's possible the same could happen soon, but this time I doubt it would be ignored.
An outbreak at WDW would be reported both in and outside of the USA. It would be a major blow to Disney's ego, much like all the reporting over WDW reopening on the same day Florida had a record number of cases.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I‘m not saying it wouldn’t be bad PR. The specific question was how would Disney respond. IMHO a vigorous defense only makes them look worse. They may use back channels to attempt to kill the story but I wouldn’t expect a public defense. Again, this is all speculative based on a story actually breaking.
The big liability for Disney is if a bunch of guest-facing cast members in one area get sick. That is hard to avoid the narrative that the cast is spreading amongst themselves, so they must be spreading amongst guests, too.
FWIW, I've heard anecdotal reports from folks working down there this is already starting to happen.
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
these are a subset of questions asked in a survey about social distancing that Ipsos has been conducting since March
they get at the other behaviors (masks, 6 feet distance) with other questions
so of course it’s possible to see how those correlate
you could certainly visit the site and download the data if interested; I won‘t link since there are questions about government response included
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
it did get national coverage. And then a year later when people were getting legionnaires from the A/C in NOS it made national news too. SO I can't imagine a covid outbreak will sneak past media 'exposure.'
Yeah, and the Governor of Pennsylvania has ZERO EVIDENCE of those statements.
chrisvee
Well-Known Member
and you know that how?
He didn’t share evidence that would take a ton of heat off of him personally.
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
The people giving him “heat” will be totally unwilling to accept evidence. They know what they want to believe, and that is all that matters - it has nothing to do with facts.
October82
Well-Known Member
A quick search of one of the main medical research databases for recent studies on the impacts of masks yields around 400 independent studies in scientific journals. Among the topics of those papers include experimental measurements of the reduction in aerosolization of particles, empirical studies of mask efficacy on the spread of coronavirus in Europe, and quantitative studies of the combined impact on spikes in transmission of mask wearing and stay at home orders in the United States.
I realize that not everyone is familiar with how scientific research is conducted and published, but it took me twice as long to write this comment then it took to do the literature search.
I realize that not everyone is familiar with how scientific research is conducted and published, but it took me twice as long to write this comment then it took to do the literature search.
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Yodascousin
Active Member
Bit of a scandal from the uk this morning natural deaths are being counted as covid because of people testing positive months ago and recovered and then subsequently died. Our health minister wants an urgent review. On more positive news a pre print from oxford suggests the uk has already reached herd immunity due to T cell memory
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
So I looked into this a bit. Here’s my non-expert-in-anything-relevant thoughts:
The “overcount” theory seems based on the idea that in Ireland and Scotland, if you test positive for covid and pass away more then 28 days later, your passing is not linked to covid. In England, this is not true, so even if you were hit by a bus after having covid and recovering, you would be listed as a covid loss.
First, this seems to be a very minor issue, statistically. It seems unlikely the number of people who recovered early and, in the subsequent three months, passed due to something else would be very high. The idea also seems to assume that no one passes from covid more then 28 days after a positive test, which doesn’t go along with what we know about the virus. It’s also worth noting that UKs excess mortality is very, very high over the last several months, making it seem unlikely the covid counts is skewed significantly downwards.
As to the herd immunity level being very low, I think that idea has been floating around in the UK intellectual community for a while. The notion seems to come mainly from mathematicians, the premise being that if a significant portion of the population is naturally immune to covid, the overall percentage that needs to get sick and develop antibodies is much lower. Which, of course, makes complete theoretical sense. But the evidence that a significant percentage of the population, perhaps as high as 50% in these theories, is naturally immune seems thin and shaky. The main evidence for the claim appears to be the fact that London and Spain have somewhat controlled the virus and haven’t seen a resurgence, a fact that seems more likely to be due to the fact that areas that get horribly hammered take the pandemic more seriously going forward and adhere more closely to control measures. It should also be noted that even if the herd immunity level (and remember, we don’t even know if natural herd immunity works with covid) is as low as the lowest estimates in these theories, hard-hit areas like London and Spain would still need to experience suffering in excess of what they have already undergone to achieve even that low level. Finally, as you note, this article has yet to be peer-reviewed.
I should note again that I have no particular expertise, so I may very well be entirely incorrect with any or all of this. I just believe that you always have to critically tear apart any information, ESPECIALLY if you want it to be true.
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