Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Casper Gutman]

Bit of a scandal from the uk this morning natural deaths are being counted as covid because of people testing positive months ago and recovered and then subsequently died. Our health minister wants an urgent review. On more positive news a pre print from oxford suggests the uk has already reached herd immunity due to T cell memory

So I looked into this a bit. Here’s my non-expert-in-anything-relevant thoughts:

The “overcount” theory seems based on the idea that in Ireland and Scotland, if you test positive for covid and pass away more then 28 days later, your passing is not linked to covid. In England, this is not true, so even if you were hit by a bus after having covid and recovering, you would be listed as a covid loss.

First, this seems to be a very minor issue, statistically. It seems unlikely the number of people who recovered early and, in the subsequent three months, passed due to something else would be very high. The idea also seems to assume that no one passes from covid more then 28 days after a positive test, which doesn’t go along with what we know about the virus. It’s also worth noting that UKs excess mortality is very, very high over the last several months, making it seem unlikely the covid counts is skewed significantly downwards.

As to the herd immunity level being very low, I think that idea has been floating around in the UK intellectual community for a while. The notion seems to come mainly from mathematicians, the premise being that if a significant portion of the population is naturally immune to covid, the overall percentage that needs to get sick and develop antibodies is much lower. Which, of course, makes complete theoretical sense. But the evidence that a significant percentage of the population, perhaps as high as 50% in these theories, is naturally immune seems thin and shaky. The main evidence for the claim appears to be the fact that London and Spain have somewhat controlled the virus and haven’t seen a resurgence, a fact that seems more likely to be due to the fact that areas that get horribly hammered take the pandemic more seriously going forward and adhere more closely to control measures. It should also be noted that even if the herd immunity level (and remember, we don’t even know if natural herd immunity works with covid) is as low as the lowest estimates in these theories, hard-hit areas like London and Spain would still need to experience suffering in excess of what they have already undergone to achieve even that low level. Finally, as you note, this article has yet to be peer-reviewed.

I should note again that I have no particular expertise, so I may very well be entirely incorrect with any or all of this. I just believe that you always have to critically tear apart any information, ESPECIALLY if you want it to be true.

 

[Yodascousin]

So I looked into this a bit. Here’s my non-expert-in-anything-relevant thoughts:

The “overcount” theory seems based on the idea that in Ireland and Scotland, if you test positive for covid and pass away more then 28 days later, your passing is not linked to covid. In England, this is not true, so even if you were hit by a bus after having covid and recovering, you would be listed as a covid loss.

First, this seems to be a very minor issue, statistically. It seems unlikely the number of people who recovered early and, in the subsequent three months, passed due to something else would be very high. The idea also seems to assume that no one passes from covid more then 28 days after a positive test, which doesn’t go along with what we know about the virus. It’s also worth noting that UKs excess mortality is very, very high over the last several months, making it seem unlikely the covid counts is skewed significantly downwards.

As to the herd immunity level being very low, I think that idea has been floating around in the UK intellectual community for a while. The notion seems to come mainly from mathematicians, the premise being that if a significant portion of the population is naturally immune to covid, the overall percentage that needs to get sick and develop antibodies is much lower. Which, of course, makes complete theoretical sense. But the evidence that a significant percentage of the population, perhaps as high as 50% in these theories, is naturally immune seems thin and shaky. The main evidence for the claim appears to be the fact that London and Spain have somewhat controlled the virus and haven’t seen a resurgence, a fact that seems more likely to be due to the fact that areas that get horribly hammered take the pandemic more seriously going forward and adhere more closely to control measures. It should also be noted that even if the herd immunity level (and remember, we don’t even know if natural herd immunity works with covid) is as low as the lowest estimates in these theories, hard-hit areas like London and Spain would still need to experience suffering in excess of what they have already undergone to achieve even that low level. Finally, as you note, this article has yet to be peer-reviewed.

I should note again that I have no particular expertise, so I may very well be entirely incorrect with any or all of this. I just believe that you always have to critically tear apart any information, ESPECIALLY if you want it to be true.

I agree I don’t think we will ever know the truth about herd immunity and percentages of a vaccine comes to fruition there is growing evidence though that T cells are very important and it’s great news that I think the modern a and Oxford vaccine help with this. I agree with you on the counting of deaths it doesn’t make a huge difference but it does influence the curve who knows by how much. It also erodes trust in what we are being told and gives ammunition to the covid hoaxers, just a c**k up whatever way you look at it.

also just watched our briefing from Boris basically he wants everything back to normal with stadiums and conferences open in October and social distancing gone by November this I think is highly optimistic I hope it happens but can’t see it

 

[xdan0920]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

“I don’t think so. I have to double-check,” Pino said. “We were arguing, discussing, or trying to argue with the state. Not because of the numbers -- it’s 100…it doesn’t make any difference if it's 99 -- but the fact that the individual didn’t die from COVID-19…died in the crash. But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”

 

[Casper Gutman]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

“I don’t think so. I have to double-check,” Pino said. “We were arguing, discussing, or trying to argue with the state. Not because of the numbers -- it’s 100…it doesn’t make any difference if it's 99 -- but the fact that the individual didn’t die from COVID-19…died in the crash. But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”

So this is a story about a single comment from Dr. Pino. In that comment, he said that he doesn't know if the motorcycle incident is still listed in the data and then goes on to remind people that despite occasional glitches, the overall data is reliable. The news report then goes on to note that state guidelines very explicitly establish that the motorcycle is not a covid fatality, so if it is still included, its an error.

What's really interesting here is the televised report itself. It's a textbook example of how production and tone on a local news cast can make a vague and largely meaningless story into an earth-shattering scandal that casts everything into doubt, all uncovered by action-hero journalists, the last truthsayers. Seriously, its worth watching - it's almost a parody.

 

[chrisvee]

He didn’t share evidence that would take a ton of heat off of him personally.

there have been a string of news reports about the tracing of various outbreaks — like the one in Bucks County to Myrtle Beach — that preceded this announcement

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yesterday our Governor had to issue orders to retrench bc he saw models showing cases per day higher than April in our future. After battling to a 7 day average of under 400 in June, we’re now 2x. He asked all businesses that can to re-implement telework. My company never went back so we’re good. I spoke with a friend in another part of the state. She’s been back for a few weeks. I asked, so are you WFH again starting tomorrow? Nope, the owner of the company is seeking opinions. About a mandate.

BTW Governor says it’s people not wearing masks and folks returning from southern state vacations creating the increase.

Models? Oh boy...... Be careful of models and while you are at it, be careful of the data reported. I have lost faith in both. I continue to wear a mask just in case.

 

[chrisvee]

Models? Oh boy...... Be careful of models and while you are at it, be careful of the data reported. I have lost faith in both. I continue to wear a mask just in case.

I believe in math and science.

I wear a mask whenever I leave the house or if someone is in my house that doesn’t live with me. I also follow all the Governor’s orders including telework.

 

[kong1802]

So this is a story about a single comment from Dr. Pino. In that comment, he said that he doesn't know if the motorcycle incident is still listed in the data and then goes on to remind people that despite occasional glitches, the overall data is reliable. The news report then goes on to note that state guidelines very explicitly establish that the motorcycle is not a covid fatality, so if it is still included, its an error.

What's really interesting here is the televised report itself. It's a textbook example of how production and tone on a local news cast can make a vague and largely meaningless story into an earth-shattering scandal that casts everything into doubt, all uncovered by action-hero journalists, the last truthsayers. Seriously, its worth watching - it's almost a parody.

Another great case study in "Headline vs actual story"

 

[GoofGoof]

This thread gets more and more crazy every day. It‘s pretty useless at this point to have the same back and forth. Some people think the virus is no big deal and some people think it is. Nobody is changing each other’s minds.

Everyone stay safe, wear your mask (even if you think there’s no proof it does anything) and try to enjoy yourself...but think about how your actions impact others around you. We don’t have all the answers on the virus yet, but it’s always better to be safe than sorry.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I believe in math and science.

I wear a mask whenever I leave the house or if if someone is in my house that doesn’t live with me. I also follow all the Governor’s orders including telework.

I am doing exact as you and I also believe in math and science. My only problem is when humans are added to the mix.

Humans can manipulate models, and there is human error in the act of collecting and reporting data.

Heck, the entire reason we are here is when there was human error in a scientific activity!

Lastly, part of science is to question things.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[Andrew C]

Numbers are out -

View attachment 484282View attachment 484283View attachment 484284View attachment 484286

Like clockwork! Thanks!

 

[kong1802]

Positivity rate isn’t rising and that’s the good news for sure.

I know there are issues with the testing but I’m taking it as a good sign.

 

[chrisvee]

I am doing exact as you and I also believe in math and science. My only problem is when humans are added to the mix.

Humans can manipulate models, and there is human error in the act of collecting and reporting data.

Heck, the entire reason we are here is when there was human error in a scientific activity!

Lastly, part of science is to question things.

I work in analytical field capacity in a field that relies on models to make decisions. So it’s pretty easy to sort out what’s what.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

we have reached the 100+ death average....

 

[Disstevefan1]

I work in analytical field capacity in a field that relies on models to make decisions. So it’s pretty easy to sort out what’s what.

I love Analytics. Analytics is where its at! As long as we can trust the system collecting the data is working correctly.

 

[Kevin_W]

we have reached the 100+ death average....

I just looked up the death rate per capita (a fairly morbid stat) and saw that Florida is still ranked 27th in the US, behind places like Iowa that we don't think of as particular hot spots. With the older demographics of the state, I found that somewhat surprising.

 

[Alice a]

I don't know if this sheds any light on long-term plans for WDW or not, but I work at a pretty well-known college here in Charleston (cough, cough) and the CDC briefing to the collective community of colleges and universities last month told the Advisory Board to expect and prepare for this to last for at least 18-24 more months.

 

[chrisvee]

I just looked up the death rate per capita (a fairly morbid stat) and saw that Florida is still ranked 27th in the US, behind places like Iowa that we don't think of as particular hot spots. With the older demographics of the state, I found that somewhat surprising.

Iowa Cases Near Peak

Some discussion in this article about not having flattened the curve sufficiently in spring so that contact tracing could operate effectively plus how re-opening was handled, lack of mask wearing, etc. Sounds very familiar sadly.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I don't know if this sheds any light on long-term plans for WDW or not, but I work at a pretty well-known college here in Charleston (cough, cough) and the CDC briefing to the collective community of colleges and universities last month told the Advisory Board to expect and prepare for this to last for at least 18-24 more months.

this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has been following this thing.