So I looked into this a bit. Here’s my non-expert-in-anything-relevant thoughts:
The “overcount” theory seems based on the idea that in Ireland and Scotland, if you test positive for covid and pass away more then 28 days later, your passing is not linked to covid. In England, this is not true, so even if you were hit by a bus after having covid and recovering, you would be listed as a covid loss.
First, this seems to be a very minor issue, statistically. It seems unlikely the number of people who recovered early and, in the subsequent three months, passed due to something else would be very high. The idea also seems to assume that no one passes from covid more then 28 days after a positive test, which doesn’t go along with what we know about the virus. It’s also worth noting that UKs excess mortality is very, very high over the last several months, making it seem unlikely the covid counts is skewed significantly downwards.
As to the herd immunity level being very low, I think that idea has been floating around in the UK intellectual community for a while. The notion seems to come mainly from mathematicians, the premise being that if a significant portion of the population is naturally immune to covid, the overall percentage that needs to get sick and develop antibodies is much lower. Which, of course, makes complete theoretical sense. But the evidence that a significant percentage of the population, perhaps as high as 50% in these theories, is naturally immune seems thin and shaky. The main evidence for the claim appears to be the fact that London and Spain have somewhat controlled the virus and haven’t seen a resurgence, a fact that seems more likely to be due to the fact that areas that get horribly hammered take the pandemic more seriously going forward and adhere more closely to control measures. It should also be noted that even if the herd immunity level (and remember, we don’t even know if natural herd immunity works with covid) is as low as the lowest estimates in these theories, hard-hit areas like London and Spain would still need to experience suffering in excess of what they have already undergone to achieve even that low level. Finally, as you note, this article has yet to be peer-reviewed.
I should note again that I have no particular expertise, so I may very well be entirely incorrect with any or all of this. I just believe that you always have to critically tear apart any information, ESPECIALLY if you want it to be true.
