Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Anyone looking for some hope and good feelings during these trying times here are 2 stories with positive outcomes. The 104 year old survived the Spanish Flu, WWII and now this pandemic. Tough old guy. They really were the greatest generation.

WWII veteran recovers from coronavirus just in time for 104th birthday: "I made it"

He's lived through the Spanish Flu, the Great Depression and World War II – and now, the coronavirus.

www.cbsnews.com

95-year-old WWII veteran beats the odds, survives coronavirus: 'Have a positive attitude'

A 95-year-old World War II veteran, who beat the odds and survived the novel coronavirus, said on “Fox and Friends First” on Friday that listening to his doctor’s orders to stay positive helped him recover.

www.foxnews.com

 

[DisneyCane]

A quick thought this morning. All of the measures being taken are to "flatten the curve" and prevent overwhelming the health care system. In the NYC metro area this is a real problem due to the level of the outbreak there, which per capita has the worst outbreak in the entire world (possibly with the exception of Wuhan if the real data ever comes to light).

However, in the rest of the country the measures are based on the models (specifically IHME) predicting hospitalizations. The problem is that the model does not seem to be very accurate when it comes to hospitalizations. Looking at Florida, the model predicted 2,193-4,084 on April 3rd. The actual number hospitalized in Florida yesterday (April 3rd) was 1,334 (and I believe that is cumulative but for the sake of discussion I'll assume it is current). On the low end, the model is only over by 64%. The high end isn't even anywhere in the realm of reality as it is over by a mere 206%.

Drastic decisions are being made based upon modeling that isn't any better than using a random number generator. It does seem to be pretty good at predicting deaths which means that it must be close on total cases but the predictions of health care resource use is way off. Something to think about while the economy is shut down and millions of people are losing their jobs...

 

[The Mom]

"San Francisco police have begun issuing citations to violators of the shelter-in-place order requiring non-essential businesses to close and residents to stay home except for the most crucial reasons.

Police Chief Bill Scott said at a noon press conference on Friday that officers had cited one person in the last 24 hours for failing to heed a warning about the order."

“The last time I was in front of you I predicted there would come a time where we have to cite,” Scott told the public. “That time has come, and we have begun citing.”

San Francisco police begin issuing citations for failing to shelter in place

Officers to cite businesses, people who fail to heed warnings

www.sfexaminer.com

I read the whole article, and will not get into specifics - nor will anyone else be allowed to do so. Suffice to say that the person cited was not out for a walk in order to get exercise, or waiting for a take-out order, or waiting to get into any essential business, but was more or less stationary for non-essential reasons - which is not allowed per guidelines - at least in my city.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A quick thought this morning. All of the measures being taken are to "flatten the curve" and prevent overwhelming the health care system. In the NYC metro area this is a real problem due to the level of the outbreak there, which per capita has the worst outbreak in the entire world (possibly with the exception of Wuhan if the real data ever comes to light).

However, in the rest of the country the measures are based on the models (specifically IHME) predicting hospitalizations. The problem is that the model does not seem to be very accurate when it comes to hospitalizations. Looking at Florida, the model predicted 2,193-4,084 on April 3rd. The actual number hospitalized in Florida yesterday (April 3rd) was 1,334 (and I believe that is cumulative but for the sake of discussion I'll assume it is current). On the low end, the model is only over by 64%. The high end isn't even anywhere in the realm of reality as it is over by a mere 206%.

Drastic decisions are being made based upon modeling that isn't any better than using a random number generator. It does seem to be pretty good at predicting deaths which means that it must be close on total cases but the predictions of health care resource use is way off. Something to think about while the economy is shut down and millions of people are losing their jobs...

If you’re attempting to go down the road of “overblown”...I wouldn’t...

Not that I’m saying you are...but it’s possible.

I’d just like to give the same PSA I’ve given for a month: just do it. And then remember down the road and collectively fix the real problem.

Stay vigilant.

 

[The Mom]

Once again, the orders are in place. We do not need the same old argument about "coulda, shoulda, woulda" to continue on until this is all over. There are some who believe we are over reacting, and others who believe we could, and should, do more. History will decide who was right or wrong, but it certainly doesn't need to be argued over and over ad nauseum here.

Please feel free to provide updates from reliable source. Please feel free to share any coping mechanisms, words of encouragement, etc.

But please stop bemoaning the fact that you do not like the current situation - none of us are happy about the way things are, and complaining will not help. And, again, no political posts will be allowed, and please try to stay on topic - WDW fans in the time of Covid-19.

 

[orlandogal22]

Once again, the orders are in place. We do not need the same old argument about "coulda, shoulda, woulda" to continue on until this is all over. There are some who believe we are over reacting, and others who believe we could, and should, do more. History will decide who was right or wrong, but it certainly doesn't need to be argued over and over ad nauseum here.

Please feel free to provide updates from reliable source. Please feel free to share any coping mechanisms, words of encouragement, etc.

But please stop bemoaning the fact that you do not like the current situation - none of us are happy about the way things are, and complaining will not help. And, again, no political posts will be allowed, and please try to stay on topic - WDW fans in the time of Covid-19.

I just noticed a bunch of my comments that I made both this morning and last night have been outright deleted from this thread and my account. WHY? They weren't bad nor were they political.

 

[Lilofan]

The National Hurricane Weather Center has predicted another busy hurricane season this summer. Hurricane season is June 1-Nov 1. In the past before the hurricane approaching, residents rushed to the stores to stock pile on goods, buy items to protect their homes, search for a gas station that actually had gas. All this while most of us were employed and had income. It is a whole new ballgame now. We are setting aside canned food, TP, bottled water etc now because if this covid19 last through the summer, that's hurricane season from FL, TX, LA all the way up the Northeast coast.

 

[John park hopper]

The National Hurricane Weather Center has predicted another busy hurricane season. In the past before the hurricane approaching, residents rushed to the stores to stock pile on goods, buy items to protect their homes, search for a gas station that actually had gas. All this while most of us were employed and had income. It is a whole new ballgame now. We are setting aside canned food, TP, bottled water etc now because if this covid19 last through the summer, that's hurricane season from FL, TX, LA all the way up the Northeast coast.

Hopefully by the hight of hurricane season we will be recovering from this crisis. One positive gas is cheap I should go fill up all my gas cans for my generator.

 

[orlandogal22]

This will probably be deleted too... but if you're going to start policing people's thoughts - and comments - during this time when some folks are only trying to find common ground among each other (i.e. being from the same neck of the woods) or offering up fun stories to lighten the mood (and these were Disney-related stories being told as former CMs!), then that's sad.

 

[phillip9698]

That won't last much longer. Frontier bought Verizon's Fios service in this area about 6 years ago and only offered a bundle. This year they unbundled so I now have Fios/Frontier internet and over the air TV from my own antenna for less than I paid Spectrum for internet and it is faster. The days of bundles only for a good price are over.

Well my response was to someone saying Comcast would be hurting for money right now and look to sell the Marvel rights. Right now they make plenty of money off cable and internet.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Hopefully by the hight of hurricane season we will be recovering from this crisis. One positive gas is cheap I should go fill up all my gas cans for my generator.

Is anyone else getting 3 weeks to the gallon like I am?

 

[John park hopper]

Is anyone else getting 3 weeks to the gallon like I am?

I filled both my trucks up a month ago and they are still full I may have to put gas stabilizer in the tanks if this goes on much longer the gas may go bad

 

[Lilofan]

I filled both my trucks up a month ago and they are still full I may have to put gas stabilizer in the tanks if this goes on much longer the gas may go bad

Wonder if the gasoline that just sit and gather sludge in the neighborhood gas station tanks will need some sort of stabilizer? The gas trucks are used to filling up the gas stations on a regular basis but with hardly anyone going to work and 90% of the population staying home, it's something to ask. I would think driving with gasoline that has sludge is not good.

 

[John park hopper]

Wonder if the gasoline that just sit and gather sludge in the neighborhood gas station tanks will need some sort of stabilizer? The gas trucks are used to filling up the gas stations on a regular basis but with hardly anyone going to work and 90% of the population staying home, it's something to ask. I would think driving with gasoline that has sludge is not good.

When gas did not have ethanol in it, it would last much longer but since they started adding ethanol ethanol absorbs water and the gas breaks down faster. Gas with ethanol is bad for outboard engines I put gas stabilizer in all my boats. Gas sitting in tanks will break down and what is really bad if you happen to fill your car up from a tank that is low. As Rosanna Danna (SNL) would say "it's always something"

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Things are just getting weird at this point.

They have a bunch of different character ones...it's the only kind we can get my youngest to eat.

 

[Kevin_W]

A quick thought this morning. All of the measures being taken are to "flatten the curve" and prevent overwhelming the health care system. In the NYC metro area this is a real problem due to the level of the outbreak there, which per capita has the worst outbreak in the entire world (possibly with the exception of Wuhan if the real data ever comes to light).

However, in the rest of the country the measures are based on the models (specifically IHME) predicting hospitalizations. The problem is that the model does not seem to be very accurate when it comes to hospitalizations. Looking at Florida, the model predicted 2,193-4,084 on April 3rd. The actual number hospitalized in Florida yesterday (April 3rd) was 1,334 (and I believe that is cumulative but for the sake of discussion I'll assume it is current). On the low end, the model is only over by 64%. The high end isn't even anywhere in the realm of reality as it is over by a mere 206%.

Drastic decisions are being made based upon modeling that isn't any better than using a random number generator. It does seem to be pretty good at predicting deaths which means that it must be close on total cases but the predictions of health care resource use is way off. Something to think about while the economy is shut down and millions of people are losing their jobs...

I read an article with some of the people at Ohio State that are working on one of the models being used by the governors here. They were pretty candid that the models are future predictions based on lagging data that is isn't of the highest quality - so you aren't going to have great predictions. (I wouldn't even disagree with your "random number generator" comment!) Everyone is certainly trying to err on the side of caution. It's better to have empty hospital beds than not enough.

As I quoted 100+ pages ago "All models are wrong, but some are useful". Hopefully these are at least somewhat useful.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I read an article with some of the people at Ohio State that are working on one of the models being used by the governors here. They were pretty candid that the models are future predictions based on lagging data that is isn't of the highest quality - so you aren't going to have great predictions. (I wouldn't even disagree with your "random number generator" comment!) Everyone is certainly trying to err on the side of caution. It's better to have empty hospital beds than not enough.

As I quoted 100+ pages ago "All models are wrong, but some are useful". Hopefully these are at least somewhat useful.

I expect with more data they'll improve. Plus, as one can see from the curves, the farther out you get the wider the prediction interval will be. Regardless, I appreciate the efforts made by the researchers to help leaders make informed decisions.

 

[The Mom]

Posters have had posts deleted, rather than getting warnings about off topic posts. One or two off topic are generally tolerated, but several back and forth off topic posts between just two posters were removed. But they did not get a warning, which would then put posters at risk for losing their posting privileges. You are free to have that sort of back and forth in PMs.

They also did not receive a warning for violating the ToS:

10. If you have a problem with or question about a moderator’s decision, contact the moderator privately or submit a message through the contact system. Posts or topics discussing moderator actions will be removed.


You're welcome.

Again, posters who are not happy with the posting guidelines do not have to post here.

 

[John park hopper]

As far as modeling it can vary greatly just look at hurricane tracking models they seem to be all over the map. Usually one is correct picking the correct one is the hard part. Model is only as good as the data you have to put into it

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Walmart will begin limiting shoppers allowed in store.

Walmart now limiting how many shoppers can enter stores as part of coronavirus response

Walmart is limiting the number of shoppers allowed in stores as part of its response to the coronavirus pandemic to promote social distancing.

www.usatoday.com

THANK GOD...took them long enough.