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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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hopemax
Well-Known Member
The IHME model says it's intended for US Hospital systems and governments. But we could speculate that a state model for beds, isn't going to help a rural hospital figure out what they need vs a suburban hospital vs an urban hospital. That makes me think that there is another calculation, that this model doesn't show, where a state number can be used to model down to a more specific case. Something that hospital administrators are comfortable and familiar with using. Take something a little different, structural engineering. If you need something to perform well at 200,000 pounds, you don't design for 200,000 pounds, but some higher over-engineered number. Perhaps, a higher than actual state number as a starting point, can help guarantee that when some local hospital projects their individual needs, they will have enough?
What's interesting is that some east coast areas are using a different model, called CHIME, which is being done by the University of Pennsylvania. That model is even more aggressive about predicting hospitalizations and equipment. I have seen where all of this angst about hospital bed estimations being wrong is coming from, so if they freak out about IHME, then they should be completely apoplectic about the CHIME modeling. While it is great that so much data & modeling is available, we have to remember it's not designed for a bunch of Disney nerds, or other lay people. There is a Washington Post article about the different models, and why DC is using CHIME.
“We pray it’s wrong. We do,” Bowser said. “But we are looking at all of the modeling, and we don’t think one that says we don’t need any additional beds is a model that would be safe preparation for the residents of the District of Columbia.”
Like building a structure, communities can't afford to be wrong, and underestimate their needs. They will choose to over-engineer the system.
RoyalPrinceLeon
Active Member
That's good too know! Last time I went to wmart I was told to stand apart in checkout.Walmart will begin limiting shoppers allowed in store.
Walmart now limiting how many shoppers can enter stores as part of coronavirus response
Walmart is limiting the number of shoppers allowed in stores as part of its response to the coronavirus pandemic to promote social distancing.www.usatoday.com
Rescue Ranger
Well-Known Member
I'm beginning to dream about the parks nightly know and their opening. I guess I can't help it 
Maybe this has been discussed already but I wonder if it would help to do prescreening? Anyone who has a ticket or magic band and wants to enter the park must first fill out and sign a waiver. To be done at check-in and point of ticket purchase. This can be tied to the bands and tickets in order to allow entry.
Perhaps that's not a feasible idea? But just came to mind as an extra layer of caution.
Maybe this has been discussed already but I wonder if it would help to do prescreening? Anyone who has a ticket or magic band and wants to enter the park must first fill out and sign a waiver. To be done at check-in and point of ticket purchase. This can be tied to the bands and tickets in order to allow entry.
Perhaps that's not a feasible idea? But just came to mind as an extra layer of caution.
RoyalPrinceLeon
Active Member
I hope everyone stays safe today. Heading to work.
Watch onward on diz+ and it was a great film to get my mind off this.
Watch onward on diz+ and it was a great film to get my mind off this.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
pre-screening for sickness? I think one of the issues is people can be infected and show no symptoms for days. I think when the parks re-open it may be under a mandate that people wear masks among other restrictions. I don’t know how that would go over and wearing a mask in the summer heat is not ideal but extreme times call for extreme measures. I know we don’t know everything yet about anti-bodies and immunity for people once they are infected and have recovered, but it’s possible they could allow a person who tests positive for antibodies and so is immune to not wear the mask. How you handle that logistically I don’t know. They were issuing color coded cards at one point in China. I think a lot of these discussions are probably going on all over the place right now from theme parks to concert venues to sports teams to large churches. Things will be different once we come out of this.I'm beginning to dream about the parks nightly know and their opening. I guess I can't help it
Maybe this has been discussed already but I wonder if it would help to do prescreening? Anyone who has a ticket or magic band and wants to enter the park must first fill out and sign a waiver. To be done at check-in and point of ticket purchase. This can be tied to the bands and tickets in order to allow entry.
Perhaps that's not a feasible idea? But just came to mind as an extra layer of caution.
That's a good point. Dealing with everything going on is tough, but one thing we do is starting and driving our cars just to get the fluids lubricated. Cars sitting for long periods of time is not recommended.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
On the "glimmer of hope" front it seems like the curve for Florida may be starting to flatten. Broward and Palm Beach Counties look like they definitely have. Finally the two counties can have something good in common!
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
I sure hope so my sister and brother in law are in Palm Beach county and both are in the high risk group for age and medical issues
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I'm beginning to dream about the parks nightly know and their opening. I guess I can't help it
Maybe this has been discussed already but I wonder if it would help to do prescreening? Anyone who has a ticket or magic band and wants to enter the park must first fill out and sign a waiver. To be done at check-in and point of ticket purchase. This can be tied to the bands and tickets in order to allow entry.
Perhaps that's not a feasible idea? But just came to mind as an extra layer of caution.
Maybe Disney can buy a boatload of the Abbott point of care tests and test everyone prior to entry. They could even offer a fastpass line that uses up one of your advanced reservations.
You think bag check slows down entry? Wait until you see this!
Timmay
Well-Known Member
That was me, and I still stand by it after reading the article. Paramedics preform the exact care a physician can when treating cardiac arrest. They follow the same ACLS algorithm. California is one of the most restrictive states when it comes to what a paramedic can do in the field...or at least they used to be. Some states have been practicing what California just established for years and allowing paramedics to “stay and play” on scene due to the medical functions they can perform.I think a few ("a couple 25 pages") back somebody mentioned that this would have no impact on anyone with any other serious/life threatening condition that were seeking medical attention. New York made this type of announcement a few day ago. Now LA does something similar.
L.A. County tells paramedics to delay transporting cardiac patients amid coronavirus
The aim is to keep people who are likely to die out of hospitals, which are expected to be overwhelmed soon with coronavirus patients as the pandemic worsens.www.latimes.com
MickeyLuv'r
Well-Known Member
Walmart will begin limiting shoppers allowed in store.
Walmart now limiting how many shoppers can enter stores as part of coronavirus response
Walmart is limiting the number of shoppers allowed in stores as part of its response to the coronavirus pandemic to promote social distancing.www.usatoday.com
Even better is the second half: the rows are now one-way! I wish EVERY store did this! And that every shopper made an effort to be quick. I understand people are shell shocked right now.
My local store, as of my most recent visit- was out of many items.
Some people go to WDW with a plan, I've always suggested going to WDW with a strategy instead. If you must shop for food, this is the time for strategy shopping instead of a hard plan shopping. Have many back up ideas- you'll need them!
RoyalPrinceLeon
Active Member
We are doing our share. People are staying home.
"El Gran Magnifico"
Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
Right. But we weren't talking about care being rendered by a Paramedic. I was talking more about the inability for an ER/Hospital to properly care for other emergencies that came through the door.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
If they restrict the opening to on site guests only they could administer the Abbot fast test upon check in and prevent the bottleneck getting into the parks. Granted the parks would not be at full capacity but initially wouldn't that be best
Timmay
Well-Known Member
Which that article didn’t address.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
That could work. If testing is widely available I would also think they might require periodic tests for CMs too. Maybe daily if enough tests are available. Then you know CMs aren’t infecting tourists and if you test tourists at check-in then you know they aren‘t infecting each other or CMs. Lots of stuff will change. This stuff was pretty much unimaginable a month ago, but may become the new norm, at least temporarily.
I'm anxiously awaiting the big update to IHME scheduled for today. Hopefully they correct their faulty assumptions that are leading to wildly inaccurate hospitalization estimates. It doesn't seem like any model right now has adapted to the current data over the past week of relatively flat intubations in NY.
For example, NY has averaged 300 new intubations a day over the past week per Governor Cuomo. With more than that number passing away daily, I am going to assume that this ~300 number is NET new intubations. Aka: 900 people intubated - 600 dying while intubated = 300 new intubations. If I am wrong in that assumption, even better, because it means that NY's needs for new ventilators is actually going down daily.
Either way, it appears we are in a good situation when it comes to ventilators (better than predicted.) Per the briefings over the past week, NY had 2200 ventilators stockpiled mid-week, hospitals have another 2500 unused throughout the state, China is sending them 1000, and Oregon another 100+. At the current usage rate of 300 or so a day (stable), and an expected apex in the next 7 days, they will not run out. In fact, they will have thousands of extra ventilators that could be sent to areas with real shortages like New Orleans or Detroit.
All of this is positive news - and I wish the media would do a little math and put all these puzzle pieces together for the mainstream. New confirmed cases keep growing because testing is growing and the results are lagged, but the system should have enough ventilators to handle the apex. Hopefully we get some early results from the clinical trials that have started for therapeutic drugs (I know of at least 3 being tested at a family member's academic center hospital.) This is even more important than ventilators, since the survival rate of anyone being placed on a vent right now is absurdly low.
Once an epicenter like NY reaches its apex in the next week, it will be interesting to see at what point we can begin to take steps to safely re-open the country. No state, nor the federal government, has really talked much about HOW we will do this yet. Those discussions need to start happening over the next few weeks to prepare for May.
MickeyLuv'r
Well-Known Member
I think it would have to be done before they board the ME bus at the airport.
And likely before they boarded the plane before that.
I should think, we'd need a LOT more tests than we currently have.
Josh Hendy
Well-Known Member
I hope that once an apex is recognized to have happened, people don't slack off on isolation and before being told it's OK, break quarantine and go out and either get infected or infect the large number of people who managed to avoid the virus.
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