The key is the lack of data. We have the media acting as if this is the second coming of the black plague when in fact the worst case scenarios from the start was only a fraction of the mortality rate of the black death...and each day as new data does comes to light the situation doesn't look worse, in fact the mortality rate is continually lowered as more data comes in. Sure it isn't an overreaction if someone you knew has died, but overall it certainly looks like an overreaction. In the end it is likely this will have a similar mortality rate as the H1N1 had and the only real difference may be that where H1N1 was more deadly to the young, this virus is more deadly to the old.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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PeoplemoverTTA
Well-Known Member
These are confirmed cases, though, with many areas (including my own) still not having access or providing access freely to tests. While the numbers are all over the place as people make educated (or semi-educated) guesses, one thing that's important is to note is (I believe) that those are people who are expected carry the virus. Not all of them will become infected with COVID-19 or show symptoms. There are likely to be far, far more people who carry the virus than who present with the infection.
You have to factor in the media's desire to look for tragedies and dangers everywhere. How many interviews have you seen in the news with people that have recovered from this virus? Can you even think of one? And yet I've seen several with people that talk about how horrible it it is having it and how bad they feel. The media has stoked the fires of fear as much as they could with this... why they are doing it I have no clue.
The bigger picture says Confirmed cases pass 200,000, more than 8,000 people have died.
Coming your way.
I think the last report has 86% being asymptomatic carriers... Which is a very big number and indicates that this is a far less deadly disease than most people think.
Giss Neric
Well-Known Member
Shanghai Disneyland is now starting phased opening so it's a good sign at least.
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
The 100 million was talking about scenarios where we did not start social distancing. There was an alternate theory that we should just do nothing and go about business as usual and let he virus run it’s course. If we did that a third of the population could end up infected and it would happen much faster. If people actually follow the social distancing less people will get sick overall and spread over a longer period of time to keep from overrunning the hospitals.
Here is some data, illustrating exactly what happens if we take different mitigation strategies (or none at all). This is a very important study:
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Was that done recently? We are in the middle of a pretty bad flu season. A lot of those beds are filled already with flu patients.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
When they say “asymptomatic”, they don’t really mean “never showing symptoms”. While estimates suggest upwards of 90% spend time a symptomatic, most will feel ill at some point. But for most, any symptoms are “mild,” meaning no hospitalization. I’ve read perhaps 10% truly show no symptoms.
We just aren’t testing people who merely have a sore throat.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
Yes it helps me to know a Disney property is open.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Book flights to China!
Very true. The recovery rate is the last thing the media cares to discuss.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
When they talk about mild they just mean not needing hospitalization. My wife had the flu in December and didn’t need to be in the hospital but she was knocked out in bed suffering for about a week. It’s not pleasant at all. I think some of the people out in crowds and not following suggestions hear “mild“ and not in a high risk group and think it will be just like a cold or the sniffles. It could be, but it may be a lot worse too.
But give it is the cold and flu season and moving into the spring allergy season, having a sore throat or runny nose might as well be asymptomatic because most people don't run to the doctor for such minor things or even think they should avoid other people because of a runny nose.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
This feels like a very bad flu to me. When I think “cold”, I think of copious amounts of snot. I’m not very snotty with this. It’s far more systemic. But I’ll be fine.
I get a bit upset when people paint all millennials with a broad brush, as my children are in that age group - I did not have children until later in life so am about a decade behind most Boomers. I know many young people on a more personal level than their bosses/co-workers do - and have watched their growing up and how their path has been different than mine. Not better or worse; just different. At least until now. I fear that they may be facing an economic crisis that hasn't existed in almost a century - I hope I am wrong.
I also am a Boomer, and both my husband and I are the youngest in our respective families. We have friends of varied ages because of our many hobbies.
But to assume that all people in the high risk group - even those over 80 - are feeble old people who are just waiting to die is just not true. Perhaps all of the old people you have encountered fit that description, but that would be as wrong as them assuming that all people in their 20s/30s are the same as the young woman in an earlier video.
My brother (78) is still working from home - and has to turn down clients because he has too much work. One BIL (79) just got back from a skiing trip in January with his grandchildren, and he continued to ski black diamond runs just as he has done for decades. His daughter finally convinced him to not teach med students this week, and he had to cancel his yearly trip to operate in 3rd world countries this year. Another BIL(79) is not helping with income taxes this year, nor will he run any Spring marathons, but is still running daily, and is consulting with the Dept of Health as he is an Epidemiologist. He has been doing tele meetings with various groups since his "retirement" a few years ago. Two of our friends still coach - one will be turning 90 this month, and retired from medicine a few years ago. The same with another friend of the same age- he has had to stop working as a volunteer at a free clinic for the duration. My husband is currently out rowing by himself as it fits social distancing guideline - he does not come within 6 feet of anyone. I myself have been sidelined as a sports official because of this, so I am staying at home or in my yard for the duration.
So please be careful when you describe the high risk group as old, feeble, and should be ready to go. I have a few more items on my bucket list, thank you very much!
I also am a Boomer, and both my husband and I are the youngest in our respective families. We have friends of varied ages because of our many hobbies.
But to assume that all people in the high risk group - even those over 80 - are feeble old people who are just waiting to die is just not true. Perhaps all of the old people you have encountered fit that description, but that would be as wrong as them assuming that all people in their 20s/30s are the same as the young woman in an earlier video.
My brother (78) is still working from home - and has to turn down clients because he has too much work. One BIL (79) just got back from a skiing trip in January with his grandchildren, and he continued to ski black diamond runs just as he has done for decades. His daughter finally convinced him to not teach med students this week, and he had to cancel his yearly trip to operate in 3rd world countries this year. Another BIL(79) is not helping with income taxes this year, nor will he run any Spring marathons, but is still running daily, and is consulting with the Dept of Health as he is an Epidemiologist. He has been doing tele meetings with various groups since his "retirement" a few years ago. Two of our friends still coach - one will be turning 90 this month, and retired from medicine a few years ago. The same with another friend of the same age- he has had to stop working as a volunteer at a free clinic for the duration. My husband is currently out rowing by himself as it fits social distancing guideline - he does not come within 6 feet of anyone. I myself have been sidelined as a sports official because of this, so I am staying at home or in my yard for the duration.
So please be careful when you describe the high risk group as old, feeble, and should be ready to go. I have a few more items on my bucket list, thank you very much!
Very recent it was out March 17th of this year in an article titled " American Hospital Capacity and Projected Need for COVID-19 Patient Care". I don't think you'll be able to find any more recent articles than that.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
They're basically doing this same thing in our town, too, but I think these guys approached it in a much better way. The press release our PD sent out was very scary looking/sounding.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
This association? They seem to be pretty concerned about a shortage (especially of ventilators):
U.S. hospital association warns of ventilator shortage if coronavirus proliferates
"The best way not to overtax the health care system is to keep more people healthy."
www.nbcnews.com
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