Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[thomas998]

Here is some data, illustrating exactly what happens if we take different mitigation strategies (or none at all). This is a very important study:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Well to begin with it is a study based on the ICU capacity in Great Britain so really not of much use to anyone outside that area... but if you look at it you'll notice that the number of ICU beds in Great Britain is about 10 per 100,000 people... and it doesn't matter which type of action you take you'll run out of beds at some point in May. So if that's the case, what difference does it make. According to that study your ship is sinking in less than 2 months and there is no way in the world anyone is going to get a vaccine soon enough to stop it if the study is correct. So frankly if I was in the UK I would have the attitude of the end is near, time to go to the pub and start drinking.

Then again it is quite possible and highly likely that the study is flawed. When someone start painting a picture like this where the reliable data underlying the subject is limited you have to question whether it is valid or not. I'll make a note to look at the UK in May and see if the hospitals are dumping ICU patients on the streets... I suspect they won't be although from that study that's what you would expect.

 

[thomas998]

This association? They seem to be pretty concerned about a shortage (especially of ventilators):

U.S. hospital association warns of ventilator shortage if coronavirus proliferates

"The best way not to overtax the health care system is to keep more people healthy."

www.nbcnews.com

The reality is you can find a study to say whatever you want. Just look at global warming, I can find studies that say the end is near or studies that say its a hoax... Same thing applies here only the media has decided that they don't want to report anything except the doom and gloom sky is falling stuff. The result right now is hysterical panic, why else would people be fighting over toilet tissue. The next stage of this will be acceptance of the danger but when the danger never manifests as the people are led to believe it will they will likely start ignoring the media.. it will be like the boy who cried wolf.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The reality is you can find a study to say whatever you want. Just look at global warming, I can find studies that say the end is near or studies that say its a hoax... Same thing applies here only the media has decided that they don't want to report anything except the doom and gloom sky is falling stuff. The result right now is hysterical panic, why else would people be fighting over toilet tissue. The next stage of this will be acceptance of the danger but when the danger never manifests as the people are led to believe it will they will likely start ignoring the media.. it will be like the boy who cried wolf.

A BEST CASE scenario is we look back and think we over-reacted.

 

[thomas998]

A BEST CASE scenario is we look back and think we over-reacted.

Best case in terms of the deaths from the virus... but not necessarily in terms of the effect it has on the population when the next danger pops up... How likely are people to take the media seriously the next time if they end up being so far off that you would have been better off listening to a 1-900 psychic? People will accept small mistakes and chalk it up to knowing nobody's perfect... but if you miss by a huge margin you'll lose credibility.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It would be really helpful if the MA dept of public health would update their maps and graphs more than once a week. Jebus.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Best case in terms of the deaths from the virus... but not necessarily in terms of the effect it has on the population when the next danger pops up... How likely are people to take the media seriously the next time if they end up being so far off that you would have been better off listening to a 1-900 psychic? People will accept small mistakes and chalk it up to knowing nobody's perfect... but if you miss by a huge margin you'll lose credibility.

We need to work on 1) accountability for the media. No more bull. And 2) teaching people how to discern the facts from all the hype.

 

[GoofGoof]

The reality is you can find a study to say whatever you want. Just look at global warming, I can find studies that say the end is near or studies that say its a hoax... Same thing applies here only the media has decided that they don't want to report anything except the doom and gloom sky is falling stuff. The result right now is hysterical panic, why else would people be fighting over toilet tissue. The next stage of this will be acceptance of the danger but when the danger never manifests as the people are led to believe it will they will likely start ignoring the media.. it will be like the boy who cried wolf.

I’m perfectly willing to listen to both sides. I just haven’t seen anywhere that it’s being reported that this is all overblown or an overreaction outside of a few “conspiracy theory” based talking heads. Even they seem to have backed off that narrative. I would love to see some information or studies from anyone reputable that shows this isn’t as bad as the so called experts all seem to unilaterally agree on. That would be a blessing if true. I certainly don’t want this to turn out bad, but wishing for a better outcome isn’t going to get me anywhere.

 

[techgeek]

Then again it is quite possible and highly likely that the study is flawed. When someone start painting a picture like this where the reliable data underlying the subject is limited you have to question whether it is valid or not. I'll make a note to look at the UK in May and see if the hospitals are dumping ICU patients on the streets... I suspect they won't be although from that study that's what you would expect.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

The reality is you can find a study to say whatever you want. Just look at global warming, I can find studies that say the end is near or studies that say its a hoax... Same thing applies here only the media has decided that they don't want to report anything except the doom and gloom sky is falling stuff. The result right now is hysterical panic, why else would people be fighting over toilet tissue. The next stage of this will be acceptance of the danger but when the danger never manifests as the people are led to believe it will they will likely start ignoring the media.. it will be like the boy who cried wolf.

You are correct if saying you can find whatever backs up your beliefs, studies that say anything anyone wants to enforce their beliefs. If I wanted to see if ghosts or the yeti or if there is a flat earth just type in that and you can be swayed that way. When it comes to global warming and you find out 97-98% of scientists agree, I tend to believe that.
As for the media, I agree. They can make people panic with keywords or putting something on from someone that is just guessing or doesn’t have any facts with them. it’s tough trying to wade through everything being thrown at us, but doing diligent homework on our own parts instead of believing every thing posted online or seeing on tv helps.

 

[asianway]

Update regarding pay:

the union proposed that the agreement to pay be extended through August and the company said they wouldn’t discuss anything past March 31

The union has zero bargaining power.

 

[VaderTron]

How old are Louisiana's coronavirus patients? New state data sheds light

Louisiana on Tuesday released new data on the ages of Louisiana’s nearly 200 positive cases of the new coronavirus, or COVID-19, showing a significant portion of cases are among people

www.theadvocate.com

View attachment 457048

If this lawyer hadn't had immediate medical intervention, he'd have died... not from the flu, but from this "new type of cold"...

Mark Frilot, Kenner lawyer with coronavirus, shows signs of improvement

The 45-year-old Kenner lawyer who has undergone a shocking ordeal fighting off the new coronavirus is showing signs of improvement, his wife said Monday.

www.nola.com

I would like all the people who keep saying "it just kills old people" to read that article about the Lawyer suffering from Covid-19. Healthy, middle-aged man is on a ventilator and given a paralytic. His best case scenario is recovery. Some would say "full recovery", but the statements coming out of Hong Kong that lung function is reduced by 20% to 30% is not, in my book, "full recovery". Who here wants to volunteer to reduce their ability to draw air into their lungs by anywhere from 1/5 to 1/3? That's like volunteering to lose half of one of your lungs. But that's exactly what you are volunteering for when you say we should just not worry about it and let this virus "do it's thing".

 

[Lilofan]

You are correct if saying you can find whatever backs up your beliefs, studies that say anything anyone wants to enforce their beliefs. If I wanted to see if ghosts or the yeti or if there is a flat earth just type in that and you can be swayed that way. When it comes to global warming and you find out 97-98% of scientists agree, I tend to believe that.
As for the media, I agree. They can make people panic with keywords or putting something on from someone that is just guessing or doesn’t have any facts with them. it’s tough trying to wade through everything being thrown at us, but doing diligent homework on our own parts instead of believing every thing posted online or seeing on tv helps.

In regards to Corona or other important matters, the breaking news part of the media is very helpful. In my younger years, the only way I got my news during the day was the local newspaper and at night watching Walter Cronkite.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I would like all the people who keep saying "it just kills old people" to read that article about the Lawyer suffering from Covid-19. Healthy, middle-aged man is on a ventilator and given a paralytic. His best case scenario is recovery. Some would say "full recovery", but the statements coming out of Hong Kong that lung function is reduced by 20% or more is not, in my book, "full recovery". Who here wants to volunteer to reduce their ability to draw air into their lungs by anywhere from 1/5 to 1/3? That's like volunteering to lose half of one of your lungs. But that's exactly what you are volunteering for when you say we should just not worry about it and let this virus "do it's thing".

There's a late-30s dad who has it in my county...his description of this is FAR from a cold or even a severe flu.

 

[disneygeek90]

It would be really helpful if the MA dept of public health would update their maps and graphs more than once a week. Jebus.

Florida's seems put together well. The last update was at 6pm last night but I think they had at least one update earlier in the day before that as well.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

 

[DisneyDebRob]

In regards to Corona or other important matters, the breaking news part of the media is very helpful. In my younger years, the only way I got my news during the day was the local newspaper and at night watching Walter Cronkite.

Totally agree.

 

[Shouldigo12]

Well they're not wrong that the facial expressions are a big part of sign and used to express tone. It's facial grammar, and one of my favorite things about the language. Everything from which direction you pull your eyebrows, to widening your eyes, to nodding your head can be facial grammar and is an important part of the language. It's who interpreters tend to look so dramatic and theatrical.

 

[DryerLintFan]

I get a bit upset when people paint all millennials with a broad brush, as my children are in that age group - I did not have children until later in life so am about a decade behind most Boomers. I know many young people on a more personal level than their bosses/co-workers do - and have watched their growing up and how their path has been different than mine. Not better or worse; just different. At least until now. I fear that they may be facing an economic crisis that hasn't existed in almost a century - I hope I am wrong.

I also am a Boomer, and both my husband and I are the youngest in our respective families. We have friends of varied ages because of our many hobbies.

But to assume that all people in the high risk group - even those over 80 - are feeble old people who are just waiting to die is just not true. Perhaps all of the old people you have encountered fit that description, but that would be as wrong as them assuming that all people in their 20s/30s are the same as the young woman in an earlier video.

My brother (78) is still working from home - and has to turn down clients because he has too much work. One BIL (79) just got back from a skiing trip in January with his grandchildren, and he continued to ski black diamond runs just as he has done for decades. His daughter finally convinced him to not teach med students this week, and he had to cancel his yearly trip to operate in 3rd world countries this year. Another BIL(79) is not helping with income taxes this year, nor will he run any Spring marathons, but is still running daily, and is consulting with the Dept of Health as he is an Epidemiologist. He has been doing tele meetings with various groups since his "retirement" a few years ago. Two of our friends still coach - one will be turning 90 this month, and retired from medicine a few years ago. The same with another friend of the same age- he has had to stop working as a volunteer at a free clinic for the duration. My husband is currently out rowing by himself as it fits social distancing guideline - he does not come within 6 feet of anyone. I myself have been sidelined as a sports official because of this, so I am staying at home or in my yard for the duration.

So please be careful when you describe the high risk group as old, feeble, and should be ready to go. I have a few more items on my bucket list, thank you very much!

My kid's doctor is retiring in a few months. He's amazing and I'm sad to see him go. He's 77 though and wants to take some time for him. He could have retired obviously a while ago, but he loved his work and loved keeping the kids healthy and the parents sane.

Lots of young people contribute. Lots of old people contribute. And lots of blanket statements are made about millennials that really apply to younger people.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Well they're not wrong that the facial expressions are a big part of sign and used to express tone. It's facial grammar, and one of my favorite things about the language. Everything from which direction you pull your eyebrows, to widening your eyes, to nodding your head can be facial grammar and is an important part of the language. It's who interpreters tend to look so dramatic and theatrical.

SO MUCH YES. Those of us with no disabilities don't realize that losing one of the senses robs us of one of the ways we interpret communication. Body language, gesturing, tone, facial expression, verbiage - these and more contribute to how we interpret what is being communicated to us. Remove sight and/or sound from that, and a good chunk of what is being communicated just goes away.

 

[rnese]

The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

[Lilofan]

Trump is tweeting by mutual consent the USA/Canada border is temporarily closed to non essential travel.