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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
It's the way it's here in Canada and there isn't that much complaining going on about keeping restrictions in place til the majority are vaccinated.
Well that’s another difference between Canadians and Americans.

However, the way your country had to clamp down on travel south recently tells me your average Canadian isn’t as altruistic as you suggest.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
CDC at this time is not recommending a required Covid test for domestic travel.

They are however recommending getting one within 72 hours of your trip, getting one 3-4 days afterwards and quarantining for 7 days. Which I really think is overkill, especially for vaccinated individuals. A time is coming very soon where their continued hard line with vaccinated people is either going to lead to a full on revolt of all rules and/or public support for a vaccine failing.

In less then a month, 1 out of 3 seniors in this country are going to be fully vaccinated, and I guarantee you the most powerful voting block in the country will voice their displeasure. I really think public health officials should be stressing masking and social distancing but acknowledging it’s ok for vaccinated people to be more mobile.
True, but at the same time they are no longer recommending quarantining if you are fully vaccinated and have contact with a covid positive person unless you have symptoms. So if you are exempt from quarantine with known contact I would assume you are also exempt from travel quarantining too when fully vaccinated. Maybe reading too much between the lines, but that’s my interpretation.

I think we are starting to see the beginning of relaxing of restrictions based on vaccinations. We aren’t close to enough vaccinated yet to see big moves but I think it’s going to be a reality in a matter of months. Right now only 4% of the population is fully vaccinated but in less than a month that will be over 10% since 11.4% right now have gotten at least 1 shot. It’s coming and sooner than later.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
True, but at the same time they are no longer recommending quarantining if you are fully vaccinated and have contact with a covid positive person unless you have symptoms. So if you are exempt from quarantine with known contact I would assume you are also exempt from travel quarantining too when fully vaccinated. Maybe reading too much between the lines, but that’s my interpretation.

I think we are starting to see the beginning of relaxing of restrictions based on vaccinations. We aren’t close to enough vaccinated yet to see big moves but I think it’s going to be a reality in a matter of months. Right now only 4% of the population is fully vaccinated but in less than a month that will be over 10% since 11.4% right now have gotten at least 1 shot. It’s coming and sooner than later.
The CDC recommendations are for flying are they not? Why not go on road trips instead?
 

Flugell

Well-Known Member
I have enjoyed the look back at what people posted over the past year and the acknowledgment of accuracy or inaccuracies in their opinions/predictions. However I must confess to a feeling of depression when reading posts that still seem to lean towards what people want to happen rather than what needs to happen.
Why would people who have been fortunate enough to be vaccinated, revolt against the very rules that kept them safe, until they were able to be vaccinated? There is, as far as I am aware, no definitive evidence that people who are vaccinated are not able to contribute to the spread of the virus. This is important information.
We have come so far and endured so much it would be tragic to jeopardise the arrival at the winning post by stopping a few days/weeks/ months short. Let science and statistics lead the way not our natural and almost overwhelmingly desire to return to some form of normality. How I long to see my son (December 2019) go on holiday (January 2020) or go out for a meal with friends (January 2020) but if necessary I will continue to wait.
Therefore it would seem that the decent thing to do would be to continue with all restrictions until the vast majority of people are vaccinated or we have irrefutable proof that those who have been vaccinated cannot cause harm to those still waiting. I have little or no sympathy for those who could be vaccinated but refuse to be. Those unable to for medical reasons have my total support.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The CDC recommendations are for flying are they not? Why not go on road trips instead?
I believe the recommendations are for "travel." The test before travel would have been only for air travel.

Certain trips are not feasible by car. My recent trip to Colorado to ski is an example. To drive would have taken three days each way. I only had 6 days including my travel days for the trip. If I got up early enough on day 3 of driving, maybe I could have gotten a few runs in and then maybe a couple in the morning before leaving the next day.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The CDC recommendations are for flying are they not? Why not go on road trips instead?
I believe the recommendations are for "travel." The test before travel would have been only for air travel.

Certain trips are not feasible by car. My recent trip to Colorado to ski is an example. To drive would have taken three days each way. I only had 6 days including my travel days for the trip. If I got up early enough on day 3 of driving, maybe I could have gotten a few runs in and then maybe a couple in the morning before leaving the next day.
Yes, I think it was part of a general recommendation not to travel. They didn’t come out and say “ignore all this stuff once you are vaccinated” but if you don’t need to quarantine after confirmed contact once vaccinated it makes sense that you wouldn’t need to jump through a lot of hoops for travel either.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
I have enjoyed the look back at what people posted over the past year and the acknowledgment of accuracy or inaccuracies in their opinions/predictions. However I must confess to a feeling of depression when reading posts that still seem to lean towards what people want to happen rather than what needs to happen.
Why would people who have been fortunate enough to be vaccinated, revolt against the very rules that kept them safe, until they were able to be vaccinated? There is, as far as I am aware, no definitive evidence that people who are vaccinated are not able to contribute to the spread of the virus. This is important information.
We have come so far and endured so much it would be tragic to jeopardise the arrival at the winning post by stopping a few days/weeks/ months short. Let science and statistics lead the way not our natural and almost overwhelmingly desire to return to some form of normality. How I long to see my son (December 2019) go on holiday (January 2020) or go out for a meal with friends (January 2020) but if necessary I will continue to wait.
Therefore it would seem that the decent thing to do would be to continue with all restrictions until the vast majority of people are vaccinated or we have irrefutable proof that those who have been vaccinated cannot cause harm to those still waiting. I have little or no sympathy for those who could be vaccinated but refuse to be. Those unable to for medical reasons have my total support.

We have never had to prove a vaccine stops transmission we have always assumed it did. Note I’m not in favor of stopping all restrictions, let’s still do the time proven one, of masks and social distancing, but airplanes seem to be realitively safe based on studies, being inside socially distant and masked seems to significantly lower your risk of transmission of disease making going into stores reasonable, likewise outdoor activities. That is because on top of the lower risks then expected vaccinated people are 95% likely not to get sick when exposed.

It’s called risk management, no situation in life is risk free, the question is when is it acceptable. When I’m 95% likely to not get the disease (and presumably around that, maybe less likely to transmit disease) and am willing to continue to do the most effective mitigations (mask and social distant) my risk is incredibly low. And the reward of living life far outweighs that risk.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Darker is more doses administered per 100k. Looks like FL is doing pretty well from a shots in the arm perspective especially compared to other States with similar population. Map from the CDC:

ltc.jpg
 

Rimmit

Well-Known Member
What if we listened to Dr. Fauci when he said (paraphrasing) you shouldn't travel unless you have to for work? Or now would be a good time for young, healthy people to get deals on vacations?

I understand that things changed as more data came in but let's not pretend like Dr. Fauci was spot on from day one and knew exactly what was going to happen or what to do to prevent it. The task force, with him on it from day one, was formed in January of last year.

No where did I say he was spot on from Day 1 or that he knew what to do to prevent it. I only stated that he and the rest of the task force were stating that a lot of people were gonna die, and that all you had to do was listen to the experts and look at what happened to other countries to know this wasn’t some hoax that was gonna disappear come November. No where did I ever state or even imply he was spot on from day one.

Again, it did not take an advanced degree to predict this outcome. People only had to listen to and trust science. Unfortunately, this is something that we as a society have gotten very bad at over the last several years.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I wonder for Florida got more allocations earlier because their >65 population was higher than other states relative to total population?
It’s not supposed to work that way. Each state is supposed to get an allocation based solely on population. Most of the differences now are how many doses states are holding back for second shots or LT care (although they should be done most places by now) and also reporting delays. I think some states are more aggressive in giving out shots and taking the risk there aren’t enough for 2nd shots and others are being more conservative.
 

GhostHost1000

Premium Member
Odds of Disney World parks being maskless with nighttime shows returned in October is?
Trump downplayed Covid for his own personal gain (popularity)

Fauci downplayed masks for a few weeks to allow hospitals and healthcare providers to get properly stocked before another panic buy by the public wiped out supply.

That’s the difference.

Personally I’m not a Trump fan but I gotta say I think he just didn’t panic or want America to panic instead of everyone go crazy (think about what happened with just toilet paper alone) and then think we are all gonna die.
 

SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
So I have a question for those who seem to be a bit more knowledgeable about the science of COVID.
If I get tested say tomorrow, and it comes back negative, does that mean for all intents and purposes I most likely was not carrying Covid asymptomatically within the prior ten days? Because it it takes two weeks to incubate and/or leave my system right? So negative means I am not carrying it at that moment and wasn’t prior ten days, positive means yes? Only reason I ask is I’m going to be around non-household members next weekend and am getting tested after to make I wasn’t carrying and gave to them or someone at the store/gas station on the road.
 
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lisa12000

Well-Known Member
No where did I say he was spot on from Day 1 or that he knew what to do to prevent it. I only stated that he and the rest of the task force were stating that a lot of people were gonna die, and that all you had to do was listen to the experts and look at what happened to other countries to know this wasn’t some hoax that was gonna disappear come November. No where did I ever state or even imply he was spot on from day one.

Again, it did not take an advanced degree to predict this outcome. People only had to listen to and trust science. Unfortunately, this is something that we as a society have gotten very bad at over the last several years.

Okay again speaking for the UK here - one problem with science is that it is supposed to be apolitical and objective. Of course we know science can never be truly value free due to the fact its human led but still.. My issue is with the SAGE group in the UK. We have a situation now where member of the SAGE group are all popping up on breakfast TV, other daytime programs, every new program to the point where I feel we are seeing most of them every day. There sole aim seems to be to keep restrictions in place longer and go against the govt narrative at times (even though they advise them) - we have John Edmunds telling us we will need to keep masks on forever the other day! Not good for the nations morale, they also advised during Jan that the govt should make it mandatory for. person to wear a mask everywhere but their private dwellings. Its almost seems as though some of them are enjoying the publicity too much, and also making political views known which I do not agree with - its not their job! Just stay off the TV and advise the govt!

Once people see this then the trust starts to wane and start to see conspiracies when they're not there. We forget that for many scientists this is their life work coming to fruition (hope that doesn't sound sadistic), they are able to put into practice what they know - and they dont seem to see the consequences of their words at times (especially when the same SAGE group all are saying different things each day). When Neil Ferguson (of the imperial college model early on!) is one of the most optimistic I do worry a little.

Another issue we have in the UK at the moment are the unions (same in the US?). The NEU I know are protecting their members but they were a little too gleeful when schools were shut (tweets of "we won we are better together" didnt go down well!) and they are already starting to rail against school openings and using it to ask for a pay rise! - it all a bit messy
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I wonder for Florida got more allocations earlier because their >65 population was higher than other states relative to total population?
They didn't. Desantis requested a higher allocation due to the >65 population ratio but (still under the Trump administration) they denied the request and said it was allocated based on total population.
I think some states are more aggressive in giving out shots and taking the risk there aren’t enough for 2nd shots and others are being more conservative.
For sure some are a lot more aggressive. All you need to do is subtract total doses administered from total doses delivered and compare to the number of first shot only recipients. If the result of the subtraction is close to the number of first shot only then the State is being conservative and holding back doses. If it isn't they are relying on the second dose showing up. Based on that, FL appears to be holding back 2nd shots for the most part.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
They didn't. Desantis requested a higher allocation due to the >65 population ratio but (still under the Trump administration) they denied the request and said it was allocated based on total population.

For sure some are a lot more aggressive. All you need to do is subtract total doses administered from total doses delivered and compare to the number of first shot only recipients. If the result of the subtraction is close to the number of first shot only then the State is being conservative and holding back doses. If it isn't they are relying on the second dose showing up. Based on that, FL appears to be holding back 2nd shots for the most part.
Yep, makes sense. Looking at the Bloomberg list FL sits at #28 on percent of doses used which implies they are holding back some doses for 2nd shots which is necessary. Some of the rural states near the top of the list have used almost all doses but will grind to a halt once people need to get their second shots.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Yep, makes sense. Looking at the Bloomberg list FL sits at #28 on percent of doses used which implies they are holding back some doses for 2nd shots which is necessary. Some of the rural states near the top of the list have used almost all doses but will grind to a halt once people need to get their second shots.
Not necessarily. The Dakotas and Montana are being very deliberate in allocation which portion of the shipments are earmarked for first and second doses. People will still get their series on time assuming manufacturing doesn’t fall short (no indication yet for that happening).

What may slow down is the pace of first doses. Where we’re well above 10% in many rural states, the climb to 20, 30, 40+ may stall, but fully vaccinated % will climb rather quickly. I’m fascinated by ND’s dashboard. As of Mon, over 20% of 80+ were fully protected.
 

OrlandoRising

Well-Known Member
There sole aim seems to be to keep restrictions in place longer and go against the govt narrative at times (even though they advise them) - we have John Edmunds telling us we will need to keep masks on forever the other day!

Where's the evidence he actually said that? In the ITV interview I saw, he said the COVID-19 virus will be around in some form "probably forever," which is totally different. Almost all infectious disease experts agree that the virus is likely to be endemic, much like the flu, but doesn't mean mandatory masks forever at all (or even once most people have been vaccinated).
 

Flugell

Well-Known Member
Okay again speaking for the UK here - one problem with science is that it is supposed to be apolitical and objective. Of course we know science can never be truly value free due to the fact its human led but still.. My issue is with the SAGE group in the UK. We have a situation now where member of the SAGE group are all popping up on breakfast TV, other daytime programs, every new program to the point where I feel we are seeing most of them every day. There sole aim seems to be to keep restrictions in place longer and go against the govt narrative at times (even though they advise them) - we have John Edmunds telling us we will need to keep masks on forever the other day! Not good for the nations morale, they also advised during Jan that the govt should make it mandatory for. person to wear a mask everywhere but their private dwellings. Its almost seems as though some of them are enjoying the publicity too much, and also making political views known which I do not agree with - its not their job! Just stay off the TV and advise the govt!

Once people see this then the trust starts to wane and start to see conspiracies when they're not there. We forget that for many scientists this is their life work coming to fruition (hope that doesn't sound sadistic), they are able to put into practice what they know - and they dont seem to see the consequences of their words at times (especially when the same SAGE group all are saying different things each day). When Neil Ferguson (of the imperial college model early on!) is one of the most optimistic I do worry a little.

Another issue we have in the UK at the moment are the unions (same in the US?). The NEU I know are protecting their members but they were a little too gleeful when schools were shut (tweets of "we won we are better together" didnt go down well!) and they are already starting to rail against school openings and using it to ask for a pay rise! - it all a bit messy
First of all you are not speaking FOR the U.K. but FROM the U.K.. A semantic but vital difference. (Sorry but you’re not speaking for me!)
The government has been accused of ignoring the science so having SAGE speaking to us directly I consider progress. If, as they say, restrictions need to remain in place then they should remain in place. I doubt that they are on a power crush, instead I think that they are desperately trying to explain to the British public what they believe to be true.
I do not understand the reticence of wearing masks whenever you leave the house. Forever seems unlikely but who can see into the future and decide now when it will happen in the future? Surely it is better to remain cautious rather than risk the outbreak spreading again.
As for the Unions, you especially mentioned teachers. Teachers who have suffered horrendously throughout the pandemic. Being an ex teacher and having many friends who remain in the profession I can’t begin to explain the fear, the stress and the additional work load that they have had to cope with. That doesn’t even take into account the number of school based staff who have had COVID-19 and those who have died. Education is vital but health and safety overrides everything. The Union celebrated because it meant that teachers and school based staff were in less danger. Schools remain open for the children of key workers so staff are dealing with and planning lessons for those in school, those distance learning and being available for zoom classes throughout the day.
There is no easy solution but releasing the restrictions too quickly will, in my opinion, risk the R rate increasing with the resulting hospitalisations and deaths. Not to mention making the roll out of vaccines less effective. There is no scientific evidence, as yet, that those who are vaccinated are not able to spread the virus as asymptomatic carriers do. Until we have clarification on this I firmly believe it would be utterly stupid to remove any restrictions or reopen schools and non essential shops and services.
 

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
There is no scientific evidence, as yet, that those who are vaccinated are not able to spread the virus as asymptomatic carriers do.
There is some scientific evidence that at least the duration and viral load is lower if vaccinated. ( See the linked studies in previous posts.).

Conclusive clinical evidence is still pending on how much ( if any) transmission occurs through those fully vaccinated. But there is some evidence.
 
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