Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[The Mom]

Sometimes I go a week or more without reading this thread and at times I spend I’ll spend a few days. I cant remember who said what on each topic.

Which is why posters shouldn't doubt another poster's information about past posts unless they know for a fact that something definitely was not posted.

It is also difficult to remember who posted what where because so many threads are Covid related these days. Which is understandable, since it is the one issue that has dominated most of our lives this past year, with the election being in second place. Many people would actually reverse that order.

 

[Miss Bella]

Which is why posters shouldn't doubt another poster's information about past posts unless they know for a fact that something definitely was not posted.

It is also difficult to remember who posted what where because so many threads are Covid related these days. Which is understandable, since it is the one issue that has dominated most of our lives this past year, with the election being in second place. Many people would actually reverse that order.

I find it’s better to just move on the re hash old arguments. Sometimes people say things they regret or their opinions change over time.
i wouldnt still be married after 26 years if I harbored every disagreement.

 

[Heppenheimer]

My hope is that these stories are just the errors on the margins that you could predict would happen somewhere, at sometime. A rollout of this scale was never going to go on without a hitch. It was discovered, fixed, hope someone learned something

My fear is that American hubris and decades of neglect and weakening of public health infrastructure will leave us not so much the proverbial "sleeping giant," but as Endgame Thor (we watched it again last night while waiting for midnight) without a Mom to get us emotionally back on track. And these stories are early warnings of how deep a hole we might have dug ourselves in. And it's not so easy to just "turn it on" when we need it.

From what we know, this doesn't have the whiff of a systemic problem. Probably more like a series of labeling and communication errors.

On review, most medical errors tend to invovle communication break-downs.

 

[The Mom]

I find it’s better to just move on the re hash old arguments. Sometimes people say things they regret or their opinions change over time.
i wouldnt still be married after 26 years if I harbored every disagreement.

It's a good thing everything we say in real life isn't written. But, since people are being punished and insulted today for doing or saying things years - or even a century ago - I doubt that people are going to stop rehashing old arguments.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I found this graph from the CDC interesting:

This works out to be an average of about 36 thousand deaths per year.

With COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. approaching 350 thousand, this suggests that COVID-19 is roughly 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu.

Estimated world-wide deaths for the 1918-20 pandemic range from 17 to 100 million, with a World population of roughly 1.8 billion. (Today's World population is 7.8 billion, with 1.8 million COVID-19 related deaths recorded so far.)

What's particularly frightening about the Spanish flu was its high morbidity among the young:

My point is simply to highlight some statistics to put these into perspective.

 

[marni1971]

More interpretation of some of the research starting to come out about the UK variant.

So far, the variant is more prevalent in children than adults. Mostly age 10-19, but also ages 0-9. Could be outcome of the greater transmissibility moving through schools. Concern - is it making kids sicker so they are actually getting tested? Concern 2 - eventually transmission that starts in younger people works its way through to older people, resulting in more hospitalizations and deaths.

Also, concerning. The R number WITH lockdown-type precautions is 1.45, regular variant is .92. As we know, if R is above 1, bad things start happening with increasing frequency. Unchecked, in 2 months, cases (and therefore hospitalizations and deaths) could increase by an order of magnitude in the UK.

Some will take this as, "see, nothing we can do." From a disease fighting perspective, it means schools should be closed, more restrictions on what people should be doing, etc. But, look around, people are bored and tired, and leaders are responding to those feelings more than they are the ground situation regarding the virus. Here, in CO, the Governor unexpectedly announced we are moving from Red to Orange. He didn't tell the mayors it was happening (he also told people over 74 to contact their PCPs to arrange for the vaccine, since they are in the next group, when the PCPs have no vaccines and no instructions from county or state, so that's a whole 'nother basket of problems.) *We* aren't asking our leadership for protection, so they aren't responding along those lines and, worse, don't even think they can sell it anymore.

I feel we are in the part of the zombie film when people think they've found some relative safety and that's when someone stupidly opens a door to look outside, and is overwhelmed and the safe haven is overrun. So, yes, I will be in my basement for the next two months.

The latest over here as of just now is that the new variant can add up to 0.7 to the R number.

 

[The Mom]

I found this graph from the CDC interesting:
View attachment 521553
This works out to be an average of about 36 thousand deaths per year.

With COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. approaching 350 thousand, this suggests that COVID-19 is roughly 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu.

Estimated world-wide deaths for the 1918-20 pandemic range from 17 to 100 million, with a World population of roughly 1.8 billion. (Today's World population is 7.8 billion, with 1.8 million COVID-19 related deaths recorded so far.)

What's particularly frightening about the Spanish flu was its high morbidity among the young:

View attachment 521554

My point is simply to highlight some statistics to put these into perspective.

Many of the young were soldiers living together in close quarters, which we know is where the disease spreads most rapidly. The very young and very old (1918 65+ was more akin to 2020 85+) were still the groups with the highest mortality.

So we can protect the younger population by keeping them out of close density living situations as much as possible. Another factor of this time was that households were much larger, and more multi-generational, than today. So a 1918 household's immediate family could exceed today's gathering guidelines. Add in the wealthier (or even more solidly middle class) population, with servants from poorer, more crowded living conditions, and it is easy to see how rapidly the disease spread.

My neighbor (now deceased) lived through the 1918 Pandemic, and her middle class family had "day help" for cleaning and cooking. Just a couple of decades prior to my purchasing my home previous owners had a maid and chauffeur who lived in the little apartment above my garage - which I renovated and use as a guest room - but it could be rented as studio apartment in the future.

So the average family was in close contact with many people even in their home.

My neighbor also spoke about seeing someone at church (they did not close churches) on Sunday and attending their funeral (again, people still had funerals) on Wednesday. With no treatment - such as respirators, IVS, etc, people either got better or died. Rapidly.

Our current mortality rate would be so much higher if we didn't have more advanced medical treatment.

 

[JoeCamel]

The latest over here as of just now is that the new variant can add up to 0.7 to the R number.

That is what was on the morning news here. 70% more transmissible

 

[ParentsOf4]

Many of the young were soldiers living together in close quarters, which we know is where the disease spreads most rapidly. The very young and very old (1918 65+ was more akin to 2020 85+) were still the groups with the highest mortality.

So we can protect the younger population by keeping them out of close density living situations as much as possible. Another factor of this time was that households were much larger, and more multi-generational, than today. So a 1918 household's immediate family could exceed today's gathering guidelines. Add in the wealthier (or even more solidly middle class) population, with servants from poorer, more crowded living conditions, and it is easy to see how rapidly the disease spread.

My neighbor (now deceased) lived through the 1918 Pandemic, and her middle class family had "day help" for cleaning and cooking. Just a couple of decades prior to my purchasing my home previous owners had a maid and chauffeur who lived in the little apartment above my garage - which I renovated and use as a guest room - but it could be rented as studio apartment in the future.

So the average family was in close contact with many people even in their home.

My neighbor also spoke about seeing someone at church (they did not close churches) on Sunday and attending their funeral (again, people still had funerals) on Wednesday. With no treatment - such as respirators, IVS, etc, people either got better or died. Rapidly.

Our current mortality rate would be so much higher if we didn't have more advanced medical treatment.

I'd also make the argument that the current mortality rate would be higher without masks and social distancing.

My grandparents lived through the Spanish flu. Despite the old photos you see, almost no one wore masks. I was once told that's why you see photos of people wearing masks from 1918-1920. It was newsworthy when someone actually wore a mask; that's why photographers took those photos.

 

[BrianLo]

I'd also make the argument that the current mortality rate would be higher without masks and social distancing.

My grandparents lived through the Spanish flu. Despite the old photos you see, almost no one wore masks. I was once told that's why you see photos of people wearing masks from 1918-1920. It was newsworthy when someone actually wore a mask; that's why photographers took those photos.

Undoubtedly it would be worse. The burden of respiratory disease in children (Bronchiolitis, croup, asthma, CAP, PICU and hospitalizations for Influ) has dropped off a cliff. To the point where some of it is non existent for the first time ever.

Yet COVID-19 deaths are still 10X worse, ultimately.

It’s a clear conclusion that what we do both matters and why we are doing it for this specific infectious disease is more than justified.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'd also make the argument that the current mortality rate would be higher without masks and social distancing.

My grandparents lived through the Spanish flu. Despite the old photos you see, almost no one wore masks. I was once told that's why you see photos of people wearing masks from 1918-1920. It was newsworthy when someone actually wore a mask; that's why photographers took those photos.

I think mask wearing was highly dependent on where you were too and there was strong resistance to requiring masks. History really does repeat itself . According to this story mask requirements were more common in Western States and less so on the East Coast.

When Mask‑Wearing Rules in the 1918 Pandemic Faced Resistance | HISTORY

Most people complied, but some resisted (or poked holes in their masks to smoke).

www.history.com

 

[Polkadotdress]

The information may never become publicly available (I'm sure our collective attention will move onto something else soon anyway), but the fault analysis for this event should prove interesting. If I were a betting man, I'd wager a combination of poor communication, lapsed safety practices and a chain of errors.

How does an infusion drug, generally used only at hospitals and infusion centers, end up at a vaccination clinic????

 

[GoofGoof]

How does an infusion drug, generally used only at hospitals and infusion centers, end up at a vaccination clinic????

Here’s the other thing, we need to do a better job educating people. Anyone who has seen any of the coverage should have known it’s a shot, not an IV drip. As soon as they hooked up the IV I would have been questioning what the heck was going on. We need more public vaccinations of celebrities that people actually care about. The majority of Americans don‘t care if Mike Pence or AOC get vaccinated. You publicly vaccinate Lebron, a few Kardashians maybe Bieber and people will watch and learn.

 

[Touchdown]

How does an infusion drug, generally used only at hospitals and infusion centers, end up at a vaccination clinic????

Must suppress want to make West Virginia joke...

 

[DCBaker]

Here’s the other thing, we need to do a better job educating people. Anyone who has seen any of the coverage should have known it’s a shot, not an IV drip. As soon as they hooked up the IV I would have been questioning what the heck was going on. We need more public vaccinations of celebrities that people actually care about. The majority of Americans don‘t care if Mike Pence or AOC get vaccinated. You publicly vaccinate Lebron, a few Kardashians maybe Bieber and people will watch and learn.

It reads as if they were injected with Regeneron, not via an IV drip?

"Forty-two people in Boone County, in southwestern West Virginia, who were scheduled to receive the coronavirus vaccine on Wednesday were mistakenly injected with an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment instead, the West Virginia National Guard said on Thursday."

"The experimental treatment, a cocktail of antibodies made by Regeneron, is the same one President Trump received when he was hospitalized with Covid-19 in November. It is meant to be administered in an intravenous infusion, not in a direct injection like the vaccine."

42 people in West Virginia are mistakenly given a virus treatment instead of the vaccine. (Published 2020)

www.nytimes.com

 

[DisneyCane]

I found this graph from the CDC interesting:
View attachment 521553
This works out to be an average of about 36 thousand deaths per year.

With COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. approaching 350 thousand, this suggests that COVID-19 is roughly 10 to 20 times more deadly than the flu.

Estimated world-wide deaths for the 1918-20 pandemic range from 17 to 100 million, with a World population of roughly 1.8 billion. (Today's World population is 7.8 billion, with 1.8 million COVID-19 related deaths recorded so far.)

What's particularly frightening about the Spanish flu was its high morbidity among the young:

View attachment 521554

My point is simply to highlight some statistics to put these into perspective.

Definitely an interesting comparison, but to draw the conclusion that COVID-19 is 10 to 20 times more deadly than the average flu from that data is not correct. It may cause 10 to 20 times more deaths but a big part of that is that it is more contagious since there was no real natural immunity and no artificial immunity until a few weeks from now when people start getting the second shot.

Based on infection fatality rate, it is probably around 2-5 times more deadly than a typical flu and they both have very low IFR compared to the Spanish Flu.

 

[GoofGoof]

It reads as if they were injected with Regeneron, not via an IV drip?

"Forty-two people in Boone County, in southwestern West Virginia, who were scheduled to receive the coronavirus vaccine on Wednesday were mistakenly injected with an experimental monoclonal antibody treatment instead, the West Virginia National Guard said on Thursday."

"The experimental treatment, a cocktail of antibodies made by Regeneron, is the same one President Trump received when he was hospitalized with Covid-19 in November. It is meant to be administered in an intravenous infusion, not in a direct injection like the vaccine."

42 people in West Virginia are mistakenly given a virus treatment instead of the vaccine. (Published 2020)

www.nytimes.com

That makes more sense. I had lost faith in humanity thinking that a bunch of people showed up and got an IV drip when they were supposed to get a shot and nobody realized it.

 

[techgeek]

That makes more sense. I had lost faith in humanity thinking that a bunch of people showed up and got an IV drip when they were supposed to get a shot and nobody realized it.

I was under the impression that the Regeneron product was decidedly not cheap... so I’m a little amazed there wasn’t greater inventory accountability that caught this.

 

[GoofGoof]

I was under the impression that the Regeneron product was decidedly not cheap... so I’m a little amazed there wasn’t greater inventory accountability that caught this.

Yeah, it’s still a major screw up on multiple levels, just not on the people who got the shot.

 

[correcaminos]

That makes more sense. I had lost faith in humanity thinking that a bunch of people showed up and got an IV drip when they were supposed to get a shot and nobody realized it.

One never knows