Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

On a very trivial note (For those who want a break from drama):
Here is how Pfizer/BioNTech came up with a name for their vaccine. Course I just call it by the larger of the two companies corporate name

The inside story behind Pfizer and BioNTech's new vaccine brand name, Comirnaty

Comirnaty. It’s a name we’ll all know soon. | Comirnaty. It’s a name we’ll all know soon. The new brand for Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty mashes up community, immunity, mRNA and COVID—pretty much everything that could fit into the moniker for the world's most high-profile...

www.fiercepharma.com

Ask your doctor if Comirnaty is right for you.

 

[mgf]

What should the federal government be responsible for?
1. Helping through the powers it has (DPA, etc.) to get supply chain problems resolved? Yes. Though privately held companies can decline giving the government the visibility into the supply chain if they are not entangled with federal funds. (Example: Pfizer). Should the government force them to divulge their business process?

2. Helping the interstate transport of supplies and final product? Yes.

3. Help getting the word out to the public on vaccination? Yes

4. Help inform states on their part in the process? Yes

5. Provide protocols and frameworks? Yes.

6. Force states to strictly adhere to the protocols and frameworks? No.

Command economies fail, and we are a union of states, who reserve powers and rights granted to them by the public. Allowing local decisions, responsibilities, and accountability can serve to make a more effective outcome. Rural Alaska is not Disneyworld, or Brooklyn, NY. Each have their unique strengths and problems, which are more apparent to local powers than the national ones. If a state or locality fail, should we as people help in order to save lives? Yes.

The government has done work such as operation Warp Speed. If there are faults in the execution, then debriefing, acknowledging and correcting those issues is a healthy response for the federal government. But states cannot lie down and say the federal government is responsible for everything in our state, we do not have to do anything. That would be irresponsible, and I do not think any reasonable state government would do that. States do customize the protocols and frameworks developed by the federal government (Such as CDC) for their unique local priorities. That is being responsible.

A clear line of responsibility is the delivery of the vaccine to the states as coordinated through the federal government. If they have failed at getting those vaccines to the states, that is a fault in the federal government. While if the states fail to set and enforce vaccine priorities, or local distribution and storage, that would be their fault. If we as public do not get vaccinated when it is available to us, that would be our fault.

I can get behind some of the above. 1-6 are largely fine (although I think the feds have authority to exercise more force on item 6 than you suggest).

We are a union of states but with a federal government for a reason. [No one is suggesting a command economy here, by the way.] This is one of the (literally) textbook scenarios for when the US federal government is uniquely positioned and empowered to take significant actions. This falls into categories of national security and common defense. States absolutely should and must be partners, but the federal government is the only standing body in the country with the funds, personnel, equipment, expertise, and authority to implement a 50-state response plan down to last mile delivery. This is not a philosophical position. It is factual. There is nothing comparable to the federal government's capabilities in this particular context and on this particular timeline. And precisely to your point, different localities will have different resources and capabilities and supply chain gaps. The federal government can smooth those [and this is where it can get more into political philosophy] through regulatory changes, partnerships, opening cash flows, federalizing NG troops, leveraging the military, etc.

Anyway, all of this discussion above is relatively moot because of your point #2. This simply is not happening efficiently or effectively. It has not from the beginning. It is documented that states of all political leanings have -- throughout this pandemic -- begged for federal support and not gotten it. Now the vaccine companies are sitting on stores that cannot get transported.

Again, my view is that at best the federal government fell down on the job (or more likely intentionally did not act) and found "federalism" a convenient justification after the fact. The AARs will certainly come. It will be interesting to learn from them.

We can respectfully disagree with one another to be sure. Thank you for your thoughtful reply.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Reminds me also of the TV dinners that were meant to be special since they were more expensive. Still love those brownies lol

We were talking about goulash and trying to explain to my kid what it was. Even my husband never had the joy of eating it (didn't live on the mainland his whole childhood) so I had to google pics to show. My kid gets subs, chicken sandwiches, not Kraft mac n cheese, french toast and sausages... all things with whole wheat, low sodium etc. Fresh fruit (not in cups) and veggies etc. It's crazy how much better he has it now.

Few things in life are better than a warm bowl of goulash on a cold winter's day.

 

[Disney Experience]

Few things in life are better than a warm bowl of goulash on a cold winter's day.

Ahh but there is hot chocolate with whip cream, which is very high up on my list of hard to refuse items.

But I love goulash, last time I think I ate it was when my mother made it for us as children.

 

[Disney Experience]

Few things in life are better than a warm bowl of goulash on a cold winter's day.

When growing up we were very poor, but our neighborhood started to have more well-to-do people in it. A fifty foot wide lot costs over two million dollars now, but my step-father was a truck driver, with a limited income and was able to buy long before the prices skyrocketed.

But we were poor. I say that in order to make the following story about food more understandable. Growing up we had bean burritos, goulash, liver and the like. Never had a steak until I was operating nuclear reactors as a teenager in the Navy (I left that field). But we had a beautiful cocker spaniel/springer mix dog, which we had Gainsburgers for the dog to eat. It would look up at us with it's sweet eyes, not taking a single byte. We would let the dog out when it had to go (Dog catcher never caught him) [Not the PC way to do it now, but this was a long, long time ago].

One day I went outside to walk down a block to take care of this old lady's cats for her. As I stepped out, our upstairs apartment renter who was a lawyer saw me and said, "We saw your dog last night and we had some extra Filet Mignon, we gave some to him". I thought, "Wow, I never have had a steak in my life, but look what our dog achieved". Well when I arrived at the old ladies house she opened the door and said," Your dog came by last night and looked so hungry. I had some extra Rack of Lamb and gave it to him. I hope that was okay".

Filet Mignon and Rack of Lamb. Lol. Lucky dog. I now know why it did not eat the Gainsburgers we had for him.

 

[SamusAranX]

Man, where did you do time?

12 years in the school system. Prison in all but name only

 

[hopemax]

*Sigh* For the 2nd time, I have rebooked my visit to my Dad in the Lion's Den aka Orlando. I was supposed to leave next Wed, now pushed back to mid-February, although I expect I will be moving it again. SWA's $49 fares are only thru mid-April, and I want to rebook for my Dad's birthday at the end of April. But even that is dependent on vaccination status. He is eligible now in FL, as he's over 70 but is waiting for the registration process to be less of a mess. (let's see how that goes)

 

[Lilofan]

Life was so much simpler when frozen Ellios pizza on Friday was a huge treat

Jiffy Pop popcorn watching a movie rented from Blockbuster on VHS.

 

[correcaminos]

Few things in life are better than a warm bowl of goulash on a cold winter's day.

I'm an old school tomato soup and grilled cheese gal to be honest. I've never made goulash nor did my family, and only had it in school. Never experienced good goulash, but with onion issues I doubt I will.

Ahh but there is hot chocolate with whip cream, which is very high up on my list of hard to refuse items.

But I love goulash, last time I think I ate it was when my mother made it for us as children.

Hot chocolate with small marshmallows here. Might make some tonight after dinner. Which is arroz con pollo. Another comfort food here.

 

[DCBaker]

"The new strain of the coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom and Colorado has been detected in Southern California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday.

Newsom made the announcement while hosting Dr. Anthony Fauci for a virtual conversation about the pandemic."

State’s 1st case of new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus detected in SoCal

A new, more contagious strain of the coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom and Colorado has been detected in Southern California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. Newsom made the announcement…

ktla.com

 

[JoeCamel]

When growing up we were very poor, but our neighborhood started to have more well-to-do people in it. A fifty foot wide lot costs over two million dollars now, but my step-father was a truck driver, with a limited income and was able to buy long before the prices skyrocketed.

But we were poor. I say that in order to make the following story about food more understandable. Growing up we had bean burritos, goulash, liver and the like. Never had a steak until I was operating nuclear reactors as a teenager in the Navy (I left that field). But we had a beautiful cocker spaniel/springer mix dog, which we had Gainsburgers for the dog to eat. It would look up at us with it's sweet eyes, not taking a single byte. We would let the dog out when it had to go (Dog catcher never caught him) [Not the PC way to do it now, but this was a long, long time ago].

One day I went outside to walk down a block to take care of this old lady's cats for her. As I stepped out, our upstairs apartment renter who was a lawyer saw me and said, "We saw your dog last night and we had some extra Filet Mignon, we gave some to him". I thought, "Wow, I never have had a steak in my life, but look what our dog achieved". Well when I arrived at the old ladies house she opened the door and said," Your dog came by last night and looked so hungry. I had some extra Rack of Lamb and gave it to him. I hope that was okay".

Filet Mignon and Rack of Lamb. Lol. Lucky dog. I now know why it did not eat the Gainsburgers we had for him.

If you had spaniel eyes you would be eating filet too.

 

[JoeCamel]

"The new strain of the coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom and Colorado has been detected in Southern California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday.

Newsom made the announcement while hosting Dr. Anthony Fauci for a virtual conversation about the pandemic."

State’s 1st case of new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus detected in SoCal

A new, more contagious strain of the coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom and Colorado has been detected in Southern California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. Newsom made the announcement…

ktla.com

Be everywhere before long

 

[GoofGoof]

Be everywhere before long

It probably already is. Probably why this second wave seems a lot worse than the Spring in most places. I wonder if the government already knew it and so thats why they never bothered with flight bans.

I don’t want to speculate too wildly, but if the new strain is more contagious does that mean we need more people to get vaccinated to reach herd immunity?

 

[Disney Experience]

I don’t want to speculate too wildly, but if the new strain is more contagious does that mean we need more people to get vaccinated to reach herd immunity?

Yes. Classic formula for herd immunity =(1-1/R0)/Efficacy.
Assume R0=2.6 , and a 95% efficacy: Immunity is achieved at 64.777%
Assume R0=3.0, and a 95% efficacy: Immunity is achieved at 70.175%

Mix in varying efficacy vaccines and it gets more complicated (Pfizer and Moderna are 95% +/- about 2%, while AstraZeneca is likely less). These are models only.

Calculating true R0 is difficult though:

COVID-19 R0: Magic number or conundrum?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics

As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation declines causing the rate at which new infections occur to slow down. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are more...

www.medrxiv.org

(PDF) The Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PDF | Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

www.researchgate.net

“Herd Immunity”: A Rough Guide

Abstract. The term “herd immunity” is widely used but carries a variety of meanings [1–7]. Some authors use it to describe the proportion immune among indi

academic.oup.com

 

[mmascari]

It probably already is.

The UK is doing surveillance testing and sequencing a significant number of them.

The US isn’t doing either.

It may have been here first, we would never know. We’re not doing the things that would spot it.

 

[GoofGoof]

The UK is doing surveillance testing and sequencing a significant number of them.

The US isn’t doing either.

It may have been here first, we would never know. We’re not doing the things that would spot it.

We hardly know who has Covid let alone which variant they have

 

[Horizons '83]

Be everywhere before long

Pretty sure its already here.

Haven't we had about 12 mutations already? I'm fairly sure, like most viruses, we see these mutations and quite common. I suppose with this one, its just more contagious.

 

[Disney Experience]

Example Super spreader situation:

https://www.yakimacounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/26758/122920_Update-to-COVID-19-Outbreak-at-Costco

The Yakima Health District continues to investigate an outbreak of COVID-19 at Costco. After conducting site-wide testing, as recommended by YHD, there are now a total of 145 employees that have tested positive for COVID-19. All 145 individuals that have tested positive are currently completing their isolation or quarantine period. After reviewing the number of cases, and the timeline in which they were identified, there is evidence to show that this sharp increase in cases mimics the type of activity that happens after some sort of superspreader event where multiple people are infected at the same time.

 

[Horizons '83]

Example Super spreader situation:

https://www.yakimacounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/26758/122920_Update-to-COVID-19-Outbreak-at-Costco

Did all 145 decide to party after work or something? How the heck did that happen?

 

[Disney Experience]

Did all 145 decide to party after work or something? How the heck did that happen?

“Due to the large amount of cases within a three-day period, the information suggests that the majority of these cases came from some sort of super-spreader event that occurred in December,” Bravo said in an update.

Total COVID-19 cases among Costco workers in Union Gap rises to 145

The number of COVID-19 cases among employees of Costco in Union Gap increased to 145 as of Monday, Yakima Health District officials reported.

www.yakimaherald.com

Perhaps a store Christmas / holiday party? [Pure speculation on my part]
Many are asymptomatic since it was mass employee testing at the store that revealed the extent of covid-19 in the employees