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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
This is just so bad. I think half of the states are starting to report over 1,000 cases a day.
And every graph is trending in the wrong direction.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Good news. For anyone with doubts on the vaccine‘s safety, on the investigation into the JnJ one it was concluded that the adverse event was not caused by the vaccine. Good news that they paused to investigate and even better news that the event was not related to the vaccine. Good sign that the trials are following good safety protocols. On the AstraZeneca one there was a recent pause in Brazil as well when a trial participant died, but the trial has already restarted there too and they disclosed that the participant was in the placebo group (did not receive the actual vaccine) and died from Covid complications. Really sad for the person involved but also a good sign that the trials are following safety protocols.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Looking for a silver lining....each of the vaccine studies needs to have 53 participants get infected in order to judge efficacy. There‘s little doubt they reach that number, probably pretty soon now. That doesn‘t mean the vaccines will be effective just that they will have enough infections to tell one way or the other if it worked. That‘s the best I got.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Hopefully it works.Looking for a silver lining....each of the vaccine studies needs to have 53 participants get infected in order to judge efficacy. There‘s little doubt they reach that number, probably pretty soon now. That doesn‘t mean the vaccines will be effective just that they will have enough infections to tell one way or the other if it worked. That‘s the best I got.
sigh...its going to get real rough.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
If we would have done nothing and let it run its natural course it would have been gone in 2 months or so. There would have been what many people would have considered an unacceptable number of deaths in a short amount of time but it would have disappeared.Someone last night told me the virus would soon be gone...but he’s said that before and was wrong
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
It doesn’t matter if you’re right or wrong, the majority of the worlds leaders think otherwise.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
You are certainly entitled to believe that if it floats your boat. That’s all I‘ve got to say about that
Too many negatives for me to comprehend your point...
If you're saying that if someone doesn't wear a mask that they only hurt themselves, then that's completely wrong. People were masks mostly in case they are asymptomatic and contagious. It protects others. If we all wore masks we'd all be protecting everyone.
The takeaway from that article is not that people who test positive aren't contagious but we need tests which show the viral load, not just whether the virus is present or not. This was back in August. The result is to push for different kind of tests, which apparently, the Trump administration was onboard with. But a test that isn't sensitive enough to determine level of contagiousness isn't entirely a bad thing, it still identifies who had the virus for the sake of tracking the disease.
Some of the nation’s leading public health experts are raising a new concern in the endless debate over coronavirus testing in the United States: The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.
Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time. But researchers say the solution is not to test less, or to skip testing people without symptoms, as recently suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Instead, new data underscore the need for more widespread use of rapid tests, even if they are less sensitive. “The decision not to test asymptomatic people is just really backward,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, referring to the C.D.C. recommendation.
“In fact, we should be ramping up testing of all different people,” he said, “but we have to do it through whole different mechanisms.”
In what may be a step in this direction, the Trump administration announced on Thursday that it would purchase 150 million rapid tests.
The most widely used diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, called a PCR test, provides a simple yes-no answer to the question of whether a patient is infected.
But similar PCR tests for other viruses do offer some sense of how contagious an infected patient may be: The results may include a rough estimate of the amount of virus in the patient’s body.
“We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.”
But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said.
Source?
Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red. In this update: AstraZeneca's and Johnson & Johnson's trial resume...
Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...
Monderna/NIH
Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun
AstraZeneca/Oxford
Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel
Novavax
Phase 3:
In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.
Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...
Monderna/NIH
Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)
Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses
Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September
Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.
Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020. It's *possible* that interim results in November can lead to Federal emergency use approval in December, otherwise, beginning of 2021.
Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun
Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)
Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people
Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)
Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.
Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3. Now, not going to happen until Thanksgiving the earliest.
AstraZeneca/Oxford
Type: altered chimp adenovirus
Warp Speed: $1.2B
Phase 3: in progress, recently started, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US. Restarted in the U.S. too.
Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.
Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.
Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel
Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]
Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)
Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness. Enrollment restarted (the illness was in the placebo group).
Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.
Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.
Novavax
Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles
Warp Speed: $1.6B
Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021
Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.
Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.
Phase 3:
Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind
Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.
Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.
If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.
An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.
In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.
In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.
GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
None of the vaccine producers nor medical authorities are committing to a firm, hard, release date. With all the steps necessary to properly generate a safe and effective vaccine that need to be taken it is reasonable. If anything its all pretty clear.
I haven't typed anything to the contrary. What was the point of your post?
GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
You claimed "confusion"!
My confusion was over who was doing what and how far along, especially when there were claims being put out by Trump which didn't match what the companies themselves were saying. So, I documented and outlined the information. By organizing information I am fighting against entropy and the eventual heat death of the universe. You're welcome!
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
Do you know about the loofa system?
Phil12
Well-Known Member
Both my auto insurance and health insurance rates go up due to people that don't wear seat belts and people that don't wear masks during a pandemic.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Well...
...yep...I got nothing on the villages
It used to be “can do” attitude...the fact this isn’t everyone’s Goal is just mind boggling.
It’s “I don’t wanna...cause I don’t wanna!!” Now.
But what about a nighttime parade for magic kingdom??
(Too soon?)
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