Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Well...

...yep...I got nothing on the villages



It used to be “can do” attitude...the fact this isn’t everyone’s Goal is just mind boggling.
It’s “I don’t wanna...cause I don’t wanna!!” Now.




But what about a nighttime parade for magic kingdom??

(Too soon?)

It’s never too soon for freedom.

 

[Lilofan]

It’s never too soon for freedom.

And a continual booming business for the health care industry

 

[GimpYancIent]

It’s never too soon for freedom.

Queue the pyro!

 

[GimpYancIent]

My confusion was over who was doing what and how far along, especially when there were claims being put out by Trump which didn't match what the companies themselves were saying. So, I documented and outlined the information. By organizing information I am fighting against entropy and the eventual heat death of the universe. You're welcome!

WOW! You just keep on doing what you say you are doing. Have a magical day.

 

[DisneyCane]

The takeaway from that article is not that people who test positive aren't contagious but we need tests which show the viral load, not just whether the virus is present or not. This was back in August. The result is to push for different kind of tests, which apparently, the Trump administration was onboard with. But a test that isn't sensitive enough to determine level of contagiousness isn't entirely a bad thing, it still identifies who had the virus for the sake of tracking the disease.

Some of the nation’s leading public health experts are raising a new concern in the endless debate over coronavirus testing in the United States: The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.​

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Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time. But researchers say the solution is not to test less, or to skip testing people without symptoms, as recently suggested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.​

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Instead, new data underscore the need for more widespread use of rapid tests, even if they are less sensitive. “The decision not to test asymptomatic people is just really backward,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, referring to the C.D.C. recommendation.​

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“In fact, we should be ramping up testing of all different people,” he said, “but we have to do it through whole different mechanisms.”​

In what may be a step in this direction, the Trump administration announced on Thursday that it would purchase 150 million rapid tests.​

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The most widely used diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, called a PCR test, provides a simple yes-no answer to the question of whether a patient is infected.​

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But similar PCR tests for other viruses do offer some sense of how contagious an infected patient may be: The results may include a rough estimate of the amount of virus in the patient’s body.​

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“We’ve been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus — that’s all,” Dr. Mina said. “We’re using that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making.”​

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But yes-no isn’t good enough, he added. It’s the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient’s next steps. “It’s really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue,” Dr. Mina said.​

Needing tests that show the viral load is BECAUSE the existing tests show "positive" for a lot of people who are not likely to be contagious. From the article:

"The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.

Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time."

and

"In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus"

"A" takeaway is that tests that measure viral load are needed but another takeaway is that a large number of people who test positive are not contagious, at least at the time the test was taken.

 

[DisneyCane]

Both my auto insurance and health insurance rates go up due to people that don't wear seat belts and people that don't wear masks during a pandemic.

Your health insurance rates go up a lot more because people can't stop themselves from eating and become obese than from people who don't wear random fabric during a pandemic that may not even do anything in most situations.

This virus is obviously contagious but it is not as contagious as people imagine it is. The chance of contracting it outdoors walking around a theme park (even without the infected wearing magic masks) is miniscule.

My accountant's wife got COVID from a visiting their daughter. When she first started getting symptoms, she didn't know yet that her daughter had it and didn't get tested right away. She did not isolate from her husband. They slept in the same bed for several days and were in the same room with each other frequently and ate together. He was tested multiple times and didn't contract it. She isolated after she tested positive but if it was insta-contagious the way people picture, my accountant would have contracted it.

The only "high risk" areas of WDW would be the queues if they didn't do social distancing. Does anybody really think transmission is likely on a moving ride vehicle on a 5 or 6 minute ride if they didn't skip rows or separate parties?

 

[techgeek]

Your health insurance rates go up a lot more because people can't stop themselves from eating and become obese than from people who don't wear random fabric during a pandemic that may not even do anything in most situations.

This virus is obviously contagious but it is not as contagious as people imagine it is. The chance of contracting it outdoors walking around a theme park (even without the infected wearing magic masks) is miniscule.

My accountant's wife got COVID from a visiting their daughter. When she first started getting symptoms, she didn't know yet that her daughter had it and didn't get tested right away. She did not isolate from her husband. They slept in the same bed for several days and were in the same room with each other frequently and ate together. He was tested multiple times and didn't contract it. She isolated after she tested positive but if it was insta-contagious the way people picture, my accountant would have contracted it.

The only "high risk" areas of WDW would be the queues if they didn't do social distancing. Does anybody really think transmission is likely on a moving ride vehicle on a 5 or 6 minute ride if they didn't skip rows or separate parties?

Some fresh science on the use of face masks:

Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States - Nature Medicine

A modeling study using case and mortality data from the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States explores five potential future scenarios of social distancing mandates and mask use at the state level, with projections of the course of the epidemic through winter 2021.

www.nature.com

 

[danlb_2000]

Your health insurance rates go up a lot more because people can't stop themselves from eating and become obese than from people who don't wear random fabric during a pandemic that may not even do anything in most situations.

This virus is obviously contagious but it is not as contagious as people imagine it is. The chance of contracting it outdoors walking around a theme park (even without the infected wearing magic masks) is miniscule.

My accountant's wife got COVID from a visiting their daughter. When she first started getting symptoms, she didn't know yet that her daughter had it and didn't get tested right away. She did not isolate from her husband. They slept in the same bed for several days and were in the same room with each other frequently and ate together. He was tested multiple times and didn't contract it. She isolated after she tested positive but if it was insta-contagious the way people picture, my accountant would have contracted it.

The only "high risk" areas of WDW would be the queues if they didn't do social distancing. Does anybody really think transmission is likely on a moving ride vehicle on a 5 or 6 minute ride if they didn't skip rows or separate parties?

So you feel that masks are totally un-necessary in the marks?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Your health insurance rates go up a lot more because people can't stop themselves from eating and become obese than from people who don't wear random fabric during a pandemic that may not even do anything in most situations.

This virus is obviously contagious but it is not as contagious as people imagine it is. The chance of contracting it outdoors walking around a theme park (even without the infected wearing magic masks) is miniscule.

My accountant's wife got COVID from a visiting their daughter. When she first started getting symptoms, she didn't know yet that her daughter had it and didn't get tested right away. She did not isolate from her husband. They slept in the same bed for several days and were in the same room with each other frequently and ate together. He was tested multiple times and didn't contract it. She isolated after she tested positive but if it was insta-contagious the way people picture, my accountant would have contracted it.

The only "high risk" areas of WDW would be the queues if they didn't do social distancing. Does anybody really think transmission is likely on a moving ride vehicle on a 5 or 6 minute ride if they didn't skip rows or separate parties?

Here we go again with the masks. “Magic mask”. Please stop. We get the feelings you have on it. Every new study says they help. Every scientist in the know agrees. You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. We get it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Food for thought:

COVID-19 Vaccine Standards Questioned at FDA Advisory Meeting

FDA advisers on Thursday heard calls for changes in how the agency plans to review applications for clearance of COVID-19 vaccines.

www.medscape.com

Some legitimate concerns, perhaps? Personally, I'm of the opinion that even if the initial vaccine released is only partially effective at reducing community spread, that's a far improvement over what's happening today.

They do raise some interesting points that perhaps the 2 month observational period may not be enough to ensure adequate safety. They perhaps have a good point for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, since this technology has never before seen used. 2 months should be more than sufficient for the other vaccines using traditional methods, though.

 

[matt9112]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red. In this update: AstraZeneca's and Johnson & Johnson's trial resume...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

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Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

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Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

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Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

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Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020. It's *possible* that interim results in November can lead to Federal emergency use approval in December, otherwise, beginning of 2021.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

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Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

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Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​

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Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​

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Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3. Now, not going to happen until Thanksgiving the earliest.​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

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Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

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Warp Speed: $1.2B​

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Phase 3: in progress, recently started, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US. Restarted in the U.S. too.​

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Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

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Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

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Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

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Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness. Enrollment restarted (the illness was in the placebo group).​

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Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

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Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

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Warp Speed: $1.6B​

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Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

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Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

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Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

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Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

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Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

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If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

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An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

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In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.

I just want to point out that -20 is common in almost any hospital and is easily scalable. (We can build that infrastructure) -70...not so much...the logistical network dosen't exsist to move the volume they want. I know they invented that special box so maybe it iwll work.

 

[matt9112]

Do you know about the loofa system?

God dont remind us. That place is in another reality.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s never too soon for freedom.

Well there’s a “new” one

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Your health insurance rates go up a lot more because people can't stop themselves from eating and become obese than from people who don't wear random fabric during a pandemic that may not even do anything in most situations.

This virus is obviously contagious but it is not as contagious as people imagine it is. The chance of contracting it outdoors walking around a theme park (even without the infected wearing magic masks) is miniscule.

My accountant's wife got COVID from a visiting their daughter. When she first started getting symptoms, she didn't know yet that her daughter had it and didn't get tested right away. She did not isolate from her husband. They slept in the same bed for several days and were in the same room with each other frequently and ate together. He was tested multiple times and didn't contract it. She isolated after she tested positive but if it was insta-contagious the way people picture, my accountant would have contracted it.

The only "high risk" areas of WDW would be the queues if they didn't do social distancing. Does anybody really think transmission is likely on a moving ride vehicle on a 5 or 6 minute ride if they didn't skip rows or separate parties?

...again?

Here we go again with the masks. “Magic mask”. Please stop. We get the feelings you have on it. Every new study says they help. Every scientist in the know agrees. You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. We get it.

...can’t stop the stupid train

 

[Chi84]

Here we go again with the masks. “Magic mask”. Please stop. We get the feelings you have on it. Every new study says they help. Every scientist in the know agrees. You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. We get it.

Nothing that @DisneyCane said in this particular post justified that kind of response. It's not the subject of masks that people here object to, but what is said about them. Yesterday, someone posted a somewhat impassioned plea for everyone to wear masks (#42,191) and no one objected to the subject of masks being discussed.

As always, one's tolerance for speech increases greatly when one agrees with what is being said.

 

[DisneyCane]

...again?



...can’t stop the stupid train

You really think you are much more intelligent than you are. People who disagree with you aren't stupid. Before throwing around insults you should look in the mirror because they likely apply to you more than the people you are directing them at. The most appropriate insult would get me banned from the forum so I'll refrain.

I like how easily triggered the "masks solve everything" crowd is. My post was factual about what drives health insurance premiums. For those of you who are constantly harping on the "science," there is no science that says that any outdoor scenario is a high transmission risk with or without "magic masks." The fact that there was no significant spread associated with the protests over the summer should be all the proof anybody needs about that.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

You really think you are much more intelligent than you are. People who disagree with you aren't stupid. Before throwing around insults you should look in the mirror because they likely apply to you more than the people you are directing them at. The most appropriate insult would get me banned from the forum so I'll refrain.

I like how easily triggered the "masks solve everything" crowd is. My post was factual about what drives health insurance premiums. For those of you who are constantly harping on the "science," there is no science that says that any outdoor scenario is a high transmission risk with or without "magic masks." The fact that there was no significant spread associated with the protests over the summer should be all the proof anybody needs about that.

Damn right...it’s amazing how going to church, school, and work spreads the virus, but protests seem to have no impact.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Damn right...it’s amazing how going to church, school, and work spreads the virus, but protests seem to have no impact.

Yes, I’m being sarcastic .

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Nothing that @DisneyCane said in this particular post justified that kind of response. It's not the subject of masks that people here object to, but what is said about them. Yesterday, someone posted a somewhat impassioned plea for everyone to wear masks (#42,191) and no one objected to the subject of masks being discussed.

As always, one's tolerance for speech increases greatly when one agrees with what is being said.

Without question it needed a response. There was no name calling just a plea to stop with the same diminishing data about masks. We not only have a right to correct someone on the facts but to try and stop the flow of bad information and data. I said in my response it’s his opinion and he’s entitled to it but when you constantly belittle data that is widely believed, with no links or studies to things you say here, it doesn’t do good for any of us.