Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s almost statistically impossible that no guests got sick at WDW or Universal since they re-opened. It’s also almost impossible to prove someone actually got sick there, especially Universal. If someone visits Universal for a day or 2 and gets sick a few days later there’s no way to know if they got sick at Uni or at dinner off site that night or at home the day after they left. WDW is slightly more possible if someone visits for long enough (over a week) and doesn‘t leave the property. I guess in theory that could happen at Universal but you would really have to like Harry Potter to stay there for more than a week. Probably not too common.

I think Disney will be see a major uptick next summer assuming a viable vaccine hits. It won’t be back to business as usual but a return to profitability. I don’t see them getting to that point in 2020.

I heard from one of the few remaining acquaintances in the swamp that 2021 is looking like very much a loss/writeoff too. There are segments of business that just can’t be disrupted and then return in a year...

Conventions being a huge one. But not the only one.

 

[Andrew C]

Most of Europe is seeing what may be described as the start of a second spike. Check back in a few weeks to see if we can offer advice in how to limit it for when it hits over there.

This could be your “reopening surge” like what we had through June and July. I don’t think cases will reach our level (I imagine your response will be a bit tougher), and am hoping death rates will end up better than the first time around.

That or we have diverged so much with how the virus is impacting our regions that one region is no longer a prediction of the other.

I’m a bit anxious about it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This could be your “reopening surge” like what we had through June and July. I don’t think cases will reach our level, and am hoping death rates will end up better than the first time around.

That or we have diverged so much with how the virus is impacting our regions that one region is no longer a prediction of the other.

I’m a bit anxious about it.

Except our “reopening surge” wasn’t that...

...As it was centered in areas that never closed. Actually we really had no closures. And I’m in what was the “hot zone”. It never happened.

 

[Polkadotdress]

As you all continue to banter about vaccine % effectiveness can I ask about the elephant in the room: the vaccine has not yet been tested on children. At all. So....

Are only adults able to get the vaccine when it's available, and wouldn't that skew the %s?

 

[GoofGoof]

I heard from one of the few remaining acquaintances in the swamp that 2021 is looking like very much a loss/writeoff too. There are segments of business that just can’t be disrupted and then return in a year...

Conventions being a huge one. But not the only one.

Conventions aren’t coming anywhere near back by next summer. Disney will still get families on vacation, sports teams, special events (food and wine, marathons, etc). I think a lot depends on how quickly they can loosen restrictions. It may be 6 months into 2020 before many of the most limiting restrictions start coming off. Remember the mouse is on a 9/30 fiscal year so that means 9 months into the 2021 fiscal year before things begin to improve greatly so 2021 may very well be a financial wipe out for TWDC parks division but I’m hopeful that the summer of 2021 starts the uptick.

 

[sullyinMT]

As you all continue to banter about vaccine % effectiveness can I ask about the elephant in the room: the vaccine has not yet been tested on children. At all. So....

Are only adults able to get the vaccine when it's available, and wouldn't that skew the %s?

Pfizer recently put in to expand their age low stop to 16yo. Not children, but it is an age range that includes the self-mobile and more unwilling to self-quarantine in the event of an infection.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Pfizer recently put in to expand their age low stop to 16yo. Not children, but it is an age range that includes the self-mobile and more unwilling to self-quarantine in the event of an infection.

...for some strange reason...parents aren’t real keen on putting their kids in vaccine trials

 

[GoofGoof]

Pfizer recently put in to expand their age low stop to 16yo. Not children, but it is an age range that includes the self-mobile and more unwilling to self-quarantine in the event of an infection.

AstraZeneca also has children as young as 5 in their non-US trials.

 

[Andrew C]

AstraZeneca also has children as young as 5 in their non-US trials.

I believe children would be one of the last groups to be vaccinated.

 

[sullyinMT]

I believe children would be one of the last groups to be vaccinated.

For the mortality risk alone. They just may not be able to see grandparents for a few more months until the grown up table gets theirs.

 

[GoofGoof]

I believe children would be one of the last groups to be vaccinated.

I’m gonna stick mine first to make sure it’s safe before getting one myself. They have an easier time getting over stuff

 

[sullyinMT]

...for some strange reason...parents are real keen on putting their kids in vaccine trials

It is a bit odd. Adults can make their own decisions and calculated risks in their lives as to long term effects. Who knows what may happen to the littles?!
This expands to other trials, as well. Rare cancers and the like I understand doing whatever it takes. Beyond that it would be a tough sell.
ETA: Then again, I wasn’t alive in the 1960s to see the polio summers. Who knows what I might have done as a parent then.

 

[Andrew C]

I’m gonna stick mine first to make sure it’s safe before getting one myself. They have an easier time getting over stuff

If only I didn’t compromise my immune system in college.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

AstraZeneca also has children as young as 5 in their non-US trials.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I’m gonna stick mine first to make sure it’s safe before getting one myself. They have an easier time getting over stuff

Disturbing.

 

[The Mom]

Just a reminder:

2. Please do not attempt to circumvent the censoring options we have set up. Abbreviations or the use of symbols to mask inappropriate language is not permitted.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m gonna stick mine first to make sure it’s safe before getting one myself. They have an easier time getting over stuff

Brilliant!

Disturbing.

...are you from Wisconsin?

 

[Parker in NYC]

Disturbing.

It's called wit.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[DisneyCane]

Sadly as of this week the testing system is broken. Just when we need it most.

I didn't know that. Thanks for the report from across the pond.