Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Although I agree that this point makes COVID-19 worse than the seasonal flu, it is far from the only factor. COVID-19 has a longer asymptomatic incubation period, a much higher percentage of asymptomatic carriers, and those who are symptomatic tend to get much sicker with a longer recovery period. We don't have absolutely great comparisons for mortality yet, because the data is still emerging and with lessons learned, the mortality rate for COVID-19 has decreased, but it still seems to have a higher mortality rate than the average seasonal flu, and definitely so for those with symptomatic disease.

Oh, and we have a medication that can at least speed up the recovery for the flu. We have nothing specific for COVID yet (not including corticosteroids, because these are commonly used in most severe respiratory infections).

EDIT: Fixed the formatting...

I've been told by several people in the medical and pharmaceutical fields that Tamaflu doesn't do much of anything. Also, I'm not sure asymptomatic flu carriers have ever been studied. I certainly don't ever recall large scale random flu testing of asymptomatic people.

In the UK, yes. It’s an emerging disaster over here.

I was referring to testing. The UK seems to be doing plenty of testing.

Leading from the rear...

Good thing Florida had it under control way back when, huh?

Don't really understand the leading from the rear comment. The tiny (under 10 million population) can't be compared to large population countries. Among large population countries, the USA is #2 and was #1 until the UK ramped up testing in the past couple of weeks in response to the spike happening there.

The spike in Florida was inevitable without a several month, complete and total lock down (including "essential" activities). Just look at California which had a similar spike with much stricter measures in place before, during and after.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The spike in Florida was inevitable without a several month, complete and total lock down (including "essential" activities). Just look at California which had a similar spike with much stricter measures in place before, during and after.

So they didn’t have it figured out in Florida in April? Coulda swore I saw that typed somewhere?

“Leading from behind” would apply if a country controlled somewhere around 80% of the world’s economic resources and struggled for months to get its act straight...and now is barreling toward the winter when any resurgence is going to be potentially crippling.

Did I miss the summer?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No, just the Dominicans in NYC and the Cubans in Miami.
Also, do the sovereign Native Americans count?

...outside shot in Dade County....
...not so much in Queens

 

[sullyinMT]

The seasonal flu vaccine is usually a mixture of 3 or more different A and B antigens each. The exact mixture is a bit of an educated prediction about which strains will predominate in the coming flu season. If they hit both antigens correctly, the vaccine is usually very effective, less so with each mismatch.

At least so far, COVID-19 doesn't present this challenge because the main target antigens on the virus haven't changed measurably since the pandemic begin.

I had read something similar but couldn’t articulate it as well into words. Hopefully that stays the same for Covid. At least one way in which this virus isn’t being intentionally difficult. I did see somewhere that the actual H1N1 vaccine from 2010 was actually near 90% effective because it only targeted one particular strand of flu.

Question then about future COVID vaccine updates. I know this is rhetorical as we just don’t know yet, but there seems to be some expertise from the two of you.
Say next summer we find a meaningful mutation in the virus, and we also see the need for a seasonal booster a la flu. My understanding is that each year’s flu vaccine is either fast tracked or doesn’t need formal approval beyond manufacturing regulatory control. What do you suspect would be protocol for COVID? Similar, or would we need a whole new vetting process as this is still so new?
My limited understanding with H1N1 is rhat the process was so quick because we had some idea of what we were dealing with (Spanish Flu was a variant) and The regulatory process was therefore not as relevant as it is in this case.

 

[mmascari]

The cdc just reversed the covid testing guidelines again to where anyone in contact with a covid postive should be tested. Asymptomatic or not.

That will drive testing back up...and cases identified up.

Hold off on booking that flight to Orlando...in other words.

It should drive the positivity down too. As more people who had a contact are tested and not all of them are positive. The ones that are positive should cause the cycle to repeat and if we can do it fast enough we stand a chance at containment.

Many months ago all kinds of academics (I think it came from Harvard) said that the US would need 750,000 tests per week to return to some form of normalcy. The 7 day rolling average is 781,000 PER DAY and that's considered a failure?

Was there any active infected level associated with that model? How large community spread was, how much it was under control, was this a maintenance level or a reduction and containment level?

That may have been a good number and model back then, when there was less active cases. Something able to contain the infection based on a lower number of currently active infections. If you find a link, it might provide some insight.

I would bet the number of currently active infections and current rate of community spread today would change what that model predicts for the number of daily tests needed to contain now. A common problem we have looking at old models, they assume old starting conditions that are no longer correct.

Does that 7 day rolling average break out tests returned within 24, 48, or 72 or more hours? That's a breakdown I would love to see. I would really love to see statistics on time between someone identified as needing a test and the test result. But, that's a much harder stat than time between test taken and result, which is still hard to see reported.

And a test is a snapshot in time. You could test, be negative, but become infected on the way home from taking the test. So why in the world would it do any good to test everybody? It would tell you absolutely nothing.

It would tell you who was positive at that snapshot in time. People who presumably don't all know they are positive, who can now isolate for 14 days, trace all their contacts for the last 3 days. Those contacts can isolate, or take a couple of tests over a few days (to weed out false negative results to early). If they turn positive in those days, repeat the cycle.

A single negative test doesn't tell you much. But, that doesn't mean taking the test tells you nothing, as a positive result is completely different.

 

[Jrb1979]

Short term, there is no argument here. Long term, I think Disney is setting themselves up for a big win. They’ve been open for two months (with their coopetition in Orlando) without a major event. Add in that they’re all 3 pulling off some semblance of late year holiday celebrations. If that goes well, and a vaccine becomes more widely available in the first half of 2021, they’ll be golden.
In the meantime, WDW and others get to be somewhat open, and take in some revenue from people willing to be Guinea pigs. Every week it seems, there’s something old that’s new again reopened to enjoy.
It’s painful to watch and witness, and I wish it were faster for everyone at large. But at least there’s movement, and I’ll take that as glass half full.

Without any contact tracing we will never know if anyone got Covid from Disney. I don't think Disney or Universal is going make as quick a rebound as you think. The loss of jobs is just starting and many won't be able to afford a Disney vacation anytime soon. They can't even fill resorts now and this is before people feel the job losses. IMO the regional parks are going to benefit the most from this next summer. Many families will opt for the cheaper theme park experience over Disney.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

#1 you thanked one of the court jesters on this topic

Thank you. And a test is a snapshot in time. You could test, be negative, but become infected on the way home from taking the test. So why in the world would it do any good to test everybody? It would tell you absolutely nothing.

It would matter if you quarantined and traced...which every country with more intelligence than Brazil not with “United” in its title has done...

And even as successful as that has been...problems are developing in real time as they try “back to normal”

At the end of this tale...the smarties will win over the hoaxies. Like an MCU. Sorry to give away the end of the movie.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

So they didn’t have it figured out in Florida in April? Coulda swore I saw that typed somewhere?

“Leading from behind” would apply if a country controlled somewhere around 80% of the world’s economic resources and struggled for months to get its act straight...and now is barreling toward the winter when any resurgence is going to be potentially crippling.

Did I miss the summer?

I think we all missed the summer. I didn’t, I’m ready for fall and some snow in winter but I’ve heard from others that the summer disappeared .

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think we all missed the summer. I didn’t, I’m ready for fall and some snow in winter but I’ve heard from others that the summer disappeared .

...I can do without the heat...

But without the northern hemispheres more favorable conditions for Heath? Not so much

 

[sullyinMT]

Without any contact tracing we will never know if anyone got Covid from Disney. I don't think Disney or Universal is going make as quick a rebound as you think. The loss of jobs is just starting and many won't be able to afford a Disney vacation anytime soon. They can't even fill resorts now and this is before people feel the job losses. IMO the regional parks are going to benefit the most from this next summer. Many families will opt for the cheaper theme park experience over Disney.

Directly from a theme park they don’t know. But they know if they came home sick from vacation.
You may well be right for midwesterners that have a good regional park near them. For those of us that must choose Silverwood or travel to Kings Island, Cedar Point, or Orlando (among many others), and have that luxury of choice, families will have a tough choice based on thrill threshold/preference.
The biggest determinant for recovery will be the opening of our borders to international discretionary air and international appetite for travel. That’s why I DO get so angry at the lack of meaningful response. We clearly have the broad capacity for testing and tracing. Tracers can be hired and trained en masse from the pool of unemployed, and state governments can elect to keep those hired on unemployment AND pay them. There’s a way out, or at least to the top of this, but the back and forth or just shear laziness is frustrating.

 

[marni1971]

I was referring to testing. The UK seems to be doing plenty of testing..

Sadly as of this week the testing system is broken. Just when we need it most.

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree, the two things you mention are completely impossible. That’s what I’m saying - why even mention it? We could discuss a ray gun from out of space that would heal everyone as well, but also impossible. So to infer that everyone should be tested is not useful. That’s all I meant.

I get you now. I thought you were saying it would not be useful to test everyone. It would but it’s not possible or practical so it’s not useful to talk about.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sadly as of this week the testing system is broken. Just when we need it most.

...the impression we’re getting (from those of us that read) on this side of the pond is you’re not doing well there...

...allies to the end. If I’m your Willie Clinton will you be my Tony Blair???

...or Ronnie and Maggie?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I get you now. I thought you were saying it would not be useful to test everyone. It would but it’s not possible or practical so it’s not useful to talk about.

I put equal odds on the ray gun working than the other plans I’m hearing...

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Testing levels are pretty good right now. Capacity is decent. There are certain weak spots in the country still here and there. And contact tracing is a different story. However, when this all started, testing capabilities were almost non existent. Just didn’t have an appropriate system. This really slowed us down and took a long time to recover from. We still are.

You are correct in saying testing was basically non existent when this started. Took a long time for us to ramp up and we’ve gotten better. Anything is better then what we started with however. Many states are still struggling to test. There are a few articles out there saying we are at 68-72% level that’s need to mitigate the spread. If this was May I would say we are on our way but it’s almost October and we still haven’t got our act together.

Is Your State Doing Enough Coronavirus Testing? (Published 2021)

The number of daily coronavirus tests conducted in the United States is only 52 percent of the level necessary to mitigate the spread of the virus, according to estimates by researchers at the Harvard Global Health Institute.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I put equal odds on the ray gun working than the other plans I’m hearing...

There’s a classic joke.. but it’s political and not appropriate here.. pm me for a laugh.

 

[marni1971]

...the impression we’re getting (from those of us that read) on this side of the pond is you’re not doing well there...

...allies to the end. If I’m your Willie Clinton will you be my Tony Blair???

...or Ronnie and Maggie?

Most of Europe is seeing what may be described as the start of a second spike. Check back in a few weeks to see if we can offer advice in how to limit it for when it hits over there.

 

[GoofGoof]

Without any contact tracing we will never know if anyone got Covid from Disney. I don't think Disney or Universal is going make as quick a rebound as you think. The loss of jobs is just starting and many won't be able to afford a Disney vacation anytime soon. They can't even fill resorts now and this is before people feel the job losses. IMO the regional parks are going to benefit the most from this next summer. Many families will opt for the cheaper theme park experience over Disney.

It’s almost statistically impossible that no guests got sick at WDW or Universal since they re-opened. It’s also almost impossible to prove someone actually got sick there, especially Universal. If someone visits Universal for a day or 2 and gets sick a few days later there’s no way to know if they got sick at Uni or at dinner off site that night or at home the day after they left. WDW is slightly more possible if someone visits for long enough (over a week) and doesn‘t leave the property. I guess in theory that could happen at Universal but you would really have to like Harry Potter to stay there for more than a week. Probably not too common.

I think Disney will be see a major uptick next summer assuming a viable vaccine hits. It won’t be back to business as usual but a return to profitability. I don’t see them getting to that point in 2020.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You are correct in saying testing was basically non existent when this started. Took a long time for us to ramp up and we’ve gotten better. Anything is better then what we started with however. Many states are still struggling to test. There are a few articles out there saying we are at 68-72% level that’s need to mitigate the spread. If this was May I would say we are on our way but it’s almost October and we still haven’t got our act together.

Is Your State Doing Enough Coronavirus Testing? (Published 2021)

The number of daily coronavirus tests conducted in the United States is only 52 percent of the level necessary to mitigate the spread of the virus, according to estimates by researchers at the Harvard Global Health Institute.

www.nytimes.com

But if you can’t cherry pick the details and have to consider the whole scenario...how can you be “right” while being completely wrong?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Most of Europe is seeing what may be described as the start of a second spike. Check back in a few weeks to see if we can offer advice in how to limit it for when it hits over there.

...we won’t listen anyway.