Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
Many months ago all kinds of academics (I think it came from Harvard) said that the US would need 750,000 tests per week to return to some form of normalcy. The 7 day rolling average is 781,000 PER DAY and that's considered a failure?

For countries with a population over 10 million, the US is behind only the UK in total tests per capita (they're at 30.2% of population and the US is at 28.8%, not 20%). Again, a failure?
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Leading from the rear...

Good thing Florida had it under control way back when, huh?
 
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Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
Kevin_W said:
Right, I don't think it's fair to say we've failed at testing given the state of the technology. Sure, we'd all love to have a $0.25 instant test we could take every morning, but I think the US has brought the technologies we do have to scale pretty well.Per capita, only Denmark and a couple other countries have tested more than the US.

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The # per day has been flat-to-decreasing for a while. That coincides with cases dropping, so I would assume less people diagnosed as positive = less people they contacted needing tests. though with the mandatory testing colleges are doing, I'm surprised we didn't see an increase when classes started for the fall.

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Testing levels are pretty good right now. Capacity is decent. There are certain weak spots in the country still here and there. And contact tracing is a different story. However, when this all started, testing capabilities were almost non existent. Just didn’t have an appropriate system. This really slowed us down and took a long time to recover from. We still are.
 
G

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
Andrew C said:
Testing levels are pretty good right now. Capacity is decent. There are certain weak spots in the country still here and there. And contact tracing is a different story. However, when this all started, testing capabilities were almost non existent. Just didn’t have an appropriate system. This really slowed us down and took a long time to recover from. We still are.
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When a rapid test is available on demand at your Dr. Office, Rite-Aid, Walgreens etc. then that will be something.
 
Andrew C

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
GoofGoof said:
That seems to be the case for flu shots. I don’t think we know for sure if it will apply to the Covid vaccine or not. I think I read somewhere for flu it’s usually not that the vaccine didn’t work at all it’s that if the particular strain you are exposed to was not part of this year’s vaccine you are likely to get a less severe infection.
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Apparently, we will have enough doses for all Americans by April. :) well, for “every single American who wants to be vaccinated.”
 
sullyinMT

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
DenseWaveTiger said:
Thank you. And a test is a snapshot in time. You could test, be negative, but become infected on the way home from taking the test. So why in the world would it do any good to test everybody? It would tell you absolutely nothing.
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It’s the ability to test anyone at any given time. Not the need to do it every day. I think you know that, but there is a chunk of the population that wants an all or nothing approach.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Andrew C said:
Apparently, we will have enough doses for all Americans by April. :) well, for “every single American who wants to be vaccinated.”
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Amen. They have to finish the trials first and prove they are safe and effective. I have no doubt that the process to distribute and vaccinate will be a complete goat rodeo. That’s not a knock against the current administration, that would be the case in normal times too. Eventually everyone who wants it will get it, but people need to be realistic and understand that if a vaccine is approved in November that doesn’t mean all restriction are lifted and like flipping a light switch we go back to life as normal. It will take time to see results and if enough people resist the vaccine it may not result in herd immunity. It should still slow the case load enough to start lifting at least some restrictions (or at least that’s my glass half full view on it).
 
sullyinMT

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
The hotels are full?

Right now?
How about next Tuesday?

The following Thursday?

When does the poly open up? Beach club? Art of animation?
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Eventually, people will get numb to the raw numbers. We’ve been managing as a whole right now with healthcare capacity. Restaurants and local drive “staycations” will get old. It is happening slowly, but it is happening. It’s not what Chapek et al expected, but there is improvement in capacity every week.
conventions and large gatherings have a way to go. That’s devastating to hotels like Swolphin. Wouldn’t be surprised if CSR delayed for similar reasons, or half opened via Gran Destino but not traditional rooms.
AoA opens 11/1. Not sure on Beach Club honestly. poly is in a big refurb and they likely have met demand for deluxes with what is available so they can close and be more thorough without disrupting guests.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DenseWaveTiger said:
Thank you. And a test is a snapshot in time. You could test, be negative, but become infected on the way home from taking the test. So why in the world would it do any good to test everybody? It would tell you absolutely nothing.
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Even though it’s impossible from a practical prospective if we had the ability to know everyone who is infected right now and we immediately quarantined them we could snuff out the virus in a matter of weeks. This is all academic talk, But the most you would need to do is run a few days or a week of follow up daily tests. The whole reason this is so hard to battle is that we don‘t know who is carrying it. The same plan could also work if every American agreed to stay locked in their home for 2 weeks with zero outside contact. Also a fantasy, but same logic applies.
 
Heppenheimer

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
That seems to be the case for flu shots. I don’t think we know for sure if it will apply to the Covid vaccine or not. I think I read somewhere for flu it’s usually not that the vaccine didn’t work at all it’s that if the particular strain you are exposed to was not part of this year’s vaccine you are likely to get a less severe infection.
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The seasonal flu vaccine is usually a mixture of 3 or more different A and B antigens each. The exact mixture is a bit of an educated prediction about which strains will predominate in the coming flu season. If they hit both antigens correctly, the vaccine is usually very effective, less so with each mismatch.

At least so far, COVID-19 doesn't present this challenge because the main target antigens on the virus haven't changed measurably since the pandemic begin.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
sullivan.kscott said:
Eventually, people will get numb to the raw numbers. We’ve been managing as a whole right now with healthcare capacity. Restaurants and local drive “staycations” will get old. It is happening slowly, but it is happening. It’s not what Chapek et al expected, but there is improvement in capacity every week.
conventions and large gatherings have a way to go. That’s devastating to hotels like Swolphin. Wouldn’t be surprised if CSR delayed for similar reasons, or half opened via Gran Destino but not traditional rooms.
AoA opens 11/1. Not sure on Beach Club honestly. poly is in a big refurb and they likely have met demand for deluxes with what is available so they can close and be more thorough without disrupting guests.
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The point is the demand is not there.

Low capacity with hotel closures doesn’t make money. But you know that...YOU want to go.

And that’s ok...but it’s not a successful business model for Disney
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Heppenheimer said:
The seasonal flu vaccine is usually a mixture of 3 or more different A and B antigens each. The exact mixture is a bit of an educated prediction about which strains will predominate in the coming flu season. If they hit both antigens correctly, the vaccine is usually very effective, less so with each mismatch.

At least so far, COVID-19 doesn't present this challenge because the main target antigens on the virus haven't changed measurably since the pandemic begin.
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I had read something similar but couldn’t articulate it as well into words. Hopefully that stays the same for Covid. At least one way in which this virus isn’t being intentionally difficult. I did see somewhere that the actual H1N1 vaccine from 2010 was actually near 90% effective because it only targeted one particular strand of flu.
 
Heppenheimer

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
www.wdwinfo.com

Travel Restrictions Between U.S., Canada, and Mexico Extended

Travel restrictions on the United States’ shared borders with Canada and Mexico have been extended through October 21, 2020.
www.wdwinfo.com
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Not surprising. I guess that confirms we're not visiting my wife's family in Ontario next month, not that we thought it likely.

Just wondering, though, I have seen the rare Quebec and even a Nova Scotia license plate here in northern Vermont recently, and these were cars, not commercial vehicles. Some exceptions must apparently exist and I'm wondering what they are. Perhaps citizens of one country who legally reside on the other side of the border?
 
sullyinMT

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
The point is the demand is not there.

Low capacity with hotel closures doesn’t make money. But you know that...YOU want to go.

And that’s ok...but it’s not a successful business model for Disney
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Short term, there is no argument here. Long term, I think Disney is setting themselves up for a big win. They’ve been open for two months (with their coopetition in Orlando) without a major event. Add in that they’re all 3 pulling off some semblance of late year holiday celebrations. If that goes well, and a vaccine becomes more widely available in the first half of 2021, they’ll be golden.
In the meantime, WDW and others get to be somewhat open, and take in some revenue from people willing to be Guinea pigs. Every week it seems, there’s something old that’s new again reopened to enjoy.
It’s painful to watch and witness, and I wish it were faster for everyone at large. But at least there’s movement, and I’ll take that as glass half full.
 
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