Exactly. I wasn’t shocked at Dr Redfield’s timeline at all. I don’t know why anyone who would think logically would be. This is going to be a massive undertaking even if only 50% of the general population seek vaccination. It’s going to take the better part of a year.
The only problem with the “screw the naysayers“ approach is that if the vaccine is only 70% effective and I get the vaccine I still have a 30% chance of getting infected. If the community spread is still wide then many of the restrictions may need to stay longer. If the vaccine is closer to 90- 95% effective that would be a big help. You still need to probably get >50% of the population to buy in. Unfortunately, a lot of people may be skeptical and then there’s a whole other group who dug in on their political views that the virus isn‘t so bad and so won’t get vaccinated because it goes against their “narrative”.
You’re exactly right. And it’s why malpractice policies are so expensive. Bad things do happen, though.
I live in MA, and the governor mandated flu shots for all children attending school as well as college students.
Very few vaccines are that effective. 70% effective, especially if at-risk groups respond, pulls this into flu territory.
The first wave (general public after the emergency approval people) can probably be done in 3 or 4 months depending on availability. The last major distribution of a vaccine was H1N1 and they started injections in November for high risk people. By early December it was available to anyone and by the end of January anyone who wanted the shot had gotten one. In that case only about 30% of the population was vaccinated (partially because flu season was mostly over by the time it was widely available) and that was a single dose vaccine. I would assume if the first wave is around 100-150M people they can get it done in 4 months time assuming 300M doses are available by then. that’s still only 45% of the population and probably not enough to reach herd immunity.
Yes. Once a vaccine is available and determined to be safe and enough doses have gone out that everybody who wants one can get it, you go back to normal. I know that some percentage who get the vaccine can still get the virus but a 70% effective vaccine taken by 70% of the population would make 49% immune. That would be more than enough to naturally significantly suppress the spread.
Agreed. The problem is if we assume the minimum threshold for herd immunity is 40% and no more than 5-10% of people have been naturally infected (official number is 2% but assuming a large number who never got tested) then we need the vaccine to protect at least 35% of the population. At 70% effectiveness (which I agree is probably best case) then we need to get to at least 50% of the public (165M Americans) getting the vaccine. If herd immunity is an even higher threshold the number vaccinated needs to go higher.
I know I waited in a long line for H1N1. It was pretty bizarre to experience but I imagine this will be the same except the line will be longer with everyone 6 feet apart
Just look at the great toilet paper crisis of 2020!
Although I agree that this point makes COVID-19 worse than the seasonal flu, it is far from the only factor. COVID-19 has a longer asymptomatic incubation period, a much higher percentage of asymptomatic carriers, and those who are symptomatic tend to get much sicker with a longer recovery period. We don't have absolutely great comparisons for mortality yet, because the data is still emerging and with lessons learned, the mortality rate for COVID-19 has decreased, but it still seems to have a higher mortality rate than the average seasonal flu, and definitely so for those with symptomatic disease.
*inserts tongue in cheek*I know I waited in a long line for H1N1. It was pretty bizarre to experience but I imagine this will be the same except the line will be longer with everyone 6 feet apart
Also, isn’t there some assumption that the other 30% who do end up infected anyway have a more attenuated infection? Whether or not they’re contagious, that could still impact the toll on overall society.
That actually is not the case. I didn't look up all the efficacy rates for every vaccine, but the rates I found quoted for seroconversion for diptheria, measles, mumps, rubella, pertussis, polio and tetanus were all in the high 90s.
In the UK, yes. It’s an emerging disaster over here.
That seems to be the case for flu shots. I don’t think we know for sure if it will apply to the Covid vaccine or not. I think I read somewhere for flu it’s usually not that the vaccine didn’t work at all it’s that if the particular strain you are exposed to was not part of this year’s vaccine you are likely to get a less severe infection.
