Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Don’t y’all essentially have nursing homes on lockdown? That alone should prevent florida from reaching those numbers. That and a better understanding of how to treat the illness. Obviously cases rising continues to be a problem. And this will lead to some sort of death uptick which is horrible. But I don’t see how Florida would get to those NY numbers unless the hospitals were so overwhelmed that the system collapsed.

I find it also hard to believe that the majority of hospitals didn't prepare over these past 4 months. Those at risk who wish to isolate have been. Some have not but that has been their choice. I saw more people over 60 out and about than younger. Nursing homes have been under high surveillance. I can't imagine the mortality approaching NY.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
I live in NY and think it's not accurate at all to compare what Florida is seeing right now and what NY was seeing in April....yes the positive counts are higher but at its peak NY was seeing almost 800 deaths A DAY. Back when he was giving daily briefings, Cuomo said we reached a huge milestone when the deaths dropped under 100 a day. Florida's cases are extremely high and they have just reached over 100 deaths in a day. I know even 1 death is too many but NY had one week in April where over 3,500 people died.
I can't speak for Florida. I know in my state we had a couple of months to prepare before we got a surge. We went from having 12 negative pressure rooms in the hospital to over 100. The engineers did an awesome job. We were able to stockpile PPE and ventilators. We've also learned a lot about the virus and how to treat it. Our hospital capacity has remained high, yet manageable and our death rate low. Everyone is working really really hard.

Yesterday there were a little less than 1400 positive tests down from our high a week or so ago with 4500. Hopefully, this trend continues. I have no idea what the percent positive is. I do know we are well prepared to deal with this for the long haul.

I give NYC a little bit of a pass because they didn't have the time to prepare. I don't know if it would have made a difference in the death rate or not.
 

The Mom

Moderator
Premium Member
Don’t y’all essentially have nursing homes on lockdown? That alone should prevent florida from reaching those numbers. That and a better understanding of how to treat the illness. Obviously cases rising continues to be a problem. And this will lead to some sort of death uptick which is horrible. But I don’t see how Florida would get to those NY numbers unless the hospitals were so overwhelmed that the system collapsed.

Yes, nursing homes are still on lockdown. We also (at least in my county) have a Covid-only nursing home so residents who have been hospitalized are not discharged back into a vulnerable population.

The average age of those testing positive, and those needing hospitalization , has dropped from what it was earlier.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Don’t y’all essentially have nursing homes on lockdown? That alone should prevent florida from reaching those numbers.


You could remove everyone who was in a nursing home who died from COVID from the overall statistics and it would hardly move the overall numbers.

When we hear about 20 deaths from one home, that is tragic and emotionally impactful. But, 20 deaths is a drop in the bucket for the total number of deaths for a state or the country.

EDIT: Turns out I was incorrect. The number of NH deaths was so great, it had a very significant impact on total deaths.
 
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mickey0825

Active Member
View attachment 483647

You could remove everyone who was in a nursing home who died from COVID from the overall statistics and it would hardly move the overall numbers.

When we hear about 20 deaths from one home, that is tragic and emotionally impactful. But, 20 deaths is a drop in the bucket for the total number of deaths for a state or the country.
Not sure of your point but deaths in nursing homes SIGNIFICANTLY impacted the death counts in NY
 

gmajew

Premium Member
The reason why bars and restaurants are being told to close or being thought of as the issue to stop the spread is because mask cannot be worn while you are eating. The partitions and the 6 feet space needed per most health departments between tables is not working as the AC units in these facilities is spreading the virus even further.

Florida Texas Arizona are all seeing a higher spread rate right now not because people are outside enjoying the weather it is because they then go inside and enjoy these facilities with AC.

The national restaurant association has been worried about this for months when we reopened. I have been on plenty of calls trying to figure out how we prepare for opening with it in my units and nothing we can do can protect everyone.

It is a mess as at the same time we need to be open to survive.... And the gov is not bailing us out so it is not possible to keep the business closed for ever....

It may come to having to do health screening of everyone that comes into places but does not help those with no symptoms.... It is a mess and really sucks for every restaurant in the world right now.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
While deaths are in fact a lagging indicator, I will say it again, a big concern is what happens if you survive the virus. Yes, deaths won't be as dramatic as they were in March/April (HOPEFULLY) but that's because we have become better at treating the virus. What is dangerous is the long lasting effects that covid has on the body, which we won't know for a while. Many report suffering after having the virus months ago. SO people can point their fingers and say "young people aren't dying as much" and "well where are all of the deaths" but doctors are very concerned about long lasting effects on both symptomatic AND asymptomatic pateints.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
The reason why bars and restaurants are being told to close or being thought of as the issue to stop the spread is because mask cannot be worn while you are eating. The partitions and the 6 feet space needed per most health departments between tables is not working as the AC units in these facilities is spreading the virus even further.

Florida Texas Arizona are all seeing a higher spread rate right now not because people are outside enjoying the weather it is because they then go inside and enjoy these facilities with AC.

I wonder if businesses can install appropriate filters and raise the percentage of 'fresh' air that gets put into an AC system to ameliorate the 'indoor effect'?
 

Flugell

Well-Known Member
As a retired teacher (U.K.) I just want to say that missing school for most pupils will not hinder their life chances.
1. I have taught many pupils who arrived with no English and within 6-12 months have equal, or in a surprising number of cases, surpassed their classmates in knowledge and understanding.
2. Sadly I have also taught children with long term illnesses, such as cancer, which has meant them having a year or more out of school and again within 6 months, as long as they have remained healthy, they have achieved the levels expected of them pre diagnosis.
3. In rural Australia, even pre computer, long distance learning was the normal, primarily through radio like CB sets enabling pupils and teachers to communicate.

I do however agree that the social aspect of school is vital. Playtimes were always my favourite part of the day and probably the time when my imagination ran riot, strangely Maths was probably my second favourite. It is also necessary for parents to be able to do their jobs, whether from home or at work and for this younger children need to be cared for, fed and educated.
Essential workers have had no choice but to send their children to school (in the U.K. schools have remained open, even during holidays, for these workers) and teachers have had to work in school, though not every day and prepare online lessons and undertake zoom and such like lessons. This is a very arduous regime! Teachers are scared for their health and that of their families, a proportion of them have some form of risk, obesity, diabetes, race, high blood pressure etc. and are torn between the duty they owe to themselves, their families and their pupils. Opening schools in a non staggered way will only add to that anxiety. Just as people on this forum feel that opening up states too quickly has caused problems, teachers feel the same about schools. Have a % of pupils for a week at a time then swap over, whilst allowing essential workers to continue to send their children, try this for 6 weeks and if there has been little or no infection and the trends in the area remain acceptable then increase the %. Classrooms are small and there are not enough spare rooms or spare teachers to allow the smaller classes that would be safer. So time in and out would be safer for the pupils and their families and for the teachers as they would still be interacting with all pupils but from a safer distance! Face shield and masks should be provided for all! Normality should be achieved eventually if everyone just stays patient a bit longer and then WDW here we come!
Apologies if this is off topic or political but I am replying to an education discussion a couple of pages ago.
 

Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
Source? How many nursing home deaths v. non-nursing-home deaths in NY?

As of 7/12, there were 6,487 deaths in nursing homes and assisted care facilities (only 175 of those were at assisted care facilities) out of 24,989 total deaths, so they were responsible for approximately 25.96% of the state's total deaths so far if those numbers are correct. That still leaves 18,502 deaths that weren't residents of nursing homes or assisted care facilities.

 

mickey0825

Active Member
As of 7/12, there were 6,487 deaths in nursing homes and assisted care facilities (only 175 of those were at assisted care facilities) out of 24,989 total deaths, so they were responsible for approximately 25.96% of the state's total deaths so far if those numbers are correct. That still leaves 18,502 deaths that weren't residents of nursing homes or assisted care facilities.

I agree...my point was that the nursing home deaths significantly impacted the counts. I consider 25% pretty significant.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
I've been looking at the Lab data. You can modify the URL to look at the daily reports from the past 2 weeks. First, the report are cumulative tests since the start of the pandemic. What matters for the daily percentage is the increase. Orlando Health is one of the line items that people are freaking out about because it shows 98% positive. So in today's report it shows:

10 negative, 512 positive, 98% positive

If I go back to the oldest report, 6/28:

10 negative, 497 positive, 98% positive

So in 16 days, they've recorded 15 more tests total, all positive. Orlando Health is huge, that doesn't make much sense. So I suspect that the majority of their tests are being processed under the name of the major laboratories. I don't know what these lines are representative of. Maybe, a specific hospital department or even a specific patient, where the status is already known?

There are other lines that have larger increases over the last 16 days. LAB24 has gone from 342 positive to 446 positive (about 7 per day). LEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL LAB: 242 to 405 (about 10 per day. Note, there is a completely separate Lee Memorial line that has many more tests and that shows 17% positivity). There are other 100% places that are listed in an old report, but aren't shown in today's report. Many of the 100% labs have a total of one positive. Over the entire lifespan of the pandemic.

This data is being used to present an idea that the positivity is wildly being miscalculated. But the day-to-day increases in labs that show 100% positivity, are tiny compared to the number of tests being run. These places are barely running any tests. There may be negatives missing, but there may not be if these represent very specific activity when a positive test is expected.

As of total, the total is 3,268,471 tests. If you assume that there were another 100,000 negative tests (which is very generous considering the daily increases). It would drop the overall positivity, since the beginning from 10.76% to 10.44%.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, I’m not sure why there’s so much gymnastics being done around the statistics. There’s no need to move goal posts, there isn’t even really a need for goal posts anymore. I’m not sure why people are so concerned about “justifying” what they want to do. WDW is open. If you want to go, then go. If you don’t, then stay home. There’s no need to massage numbers or seek out conspiracy theories to disprove any of the stats that look bad, do what you want to do and don’t worry about it. On the flip side if you don’t want to go then sit it out and don’t worry about the people who do go. There’s nothing we are going to say here that will change whether WDW is open or not and certainly nobody is changing anyone’s mind on whether it should be open. Unless you are a CM or live locally to the parks does it really impact you if people visit WDW or not? I get the desire to have good information, but it’s abundantly clear that no matter what information or data comes out someone is not going to believe it. Let’s just all agree to disagree up front instead of having the same back and forth each day when the FL numbers are released.
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
The reason why bars and restaurants are being told to close or being thought of as the issue to stop the spread is because mask cannot be worn while you are eating. The partitions and the 6 feet space needed per most health departments between tables is not working as the AC units in these facilities is spreading the virus even further.

Florida Texas Arizona are all seeing a higher spread rate right now not because people are outside enjoying the weather it is because they then go inside and enjoy these facilities with AC.

The national restaurant association has been worried about this for months when we reopened. I have been on plenty of calls trying to figure out how we prepare for opening with it in my units and nothing we can do can protect everyone.

It is a mess as at the same time we need to be open to survive.... And the gov is not bailing us out so it is not possible to keep the business closed for ever....

It may come to having to do health screening of everyone that comes into places but does not help those with no symptoms.... It is a mess and really sucks for every restaurant in the world right now.

Sincere question. Is outdoor dining proven to be safe? I mean, distance either works or it doesn't. Fresh air filters some of it but how much really if a sick person is out there and if covid is unavoidably that infectious? If covid is too risky for almost entirely outdoor events with safety measures then eating in close proximity outdoors is still risky too. By that logic.

We tried outdoor dining. It was great, I support it totally. I'll do it again. But...we had to go inside to be seated outside. Then the 6 feet apart tables outside felt close enough that I'd imagine that any sickness *could* still do its thing. Meanwhile, they had partitions at every table for indoor dining. That seemed safer than outside lol. How does AC air "blowing virus around" differ from regular air blowing around outside?

There's also a restaurant near me with an indoor tent as outdoor dining. It just felt a little silly to me as that's likely worse than indoor..

I just wish we could make decsions that seem consistent and are based on these months of studying transmission. My feeling is that most indoor businsses with rules are safe to open because viruses favor close and prolonged contact.
 
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