Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

Premium Member

chrisvee

Well-Known Member
I give NYC a little bit of a pass because they didn't have the time to prepare. I don't know if it would have made a difference in the death rate or not.
I think that’s the key point. The virus was entrenched by the time they understood what was going to happen plus treatment procedures were evolving at the moment of need so curve up was steep. But they did a great job pulling it down quickly.
 

wannabeBelle

Well-Known Member
I keep reading this fox 35 article trying to understand what it's actually saying though.
Looking for some objective analysis. If anything, doesn't this indicate a need for further investigation? What is comforting about any lab saying that they had 98% positive rate when they had 9%? Then another lab saying that they had a 76% rate when it was 6%? What kind of "error" was this? Shouldn't we be asking that question?
I think that is exactly what the article is saying is that there needs to be further investigation. That and the fact that someone definitely failed Statistics 101 in college!!! Marie
 

chrisvee

Well-Known Member
Not sure of your point but deaths in nursing homes SIGNIFICANTLY impacted the death counts in NY
something like 44% of deaths in PA occurred at long term care facilities.

ETA: so bummed about Philly canceling the Thanksgiving Day parade it’s the oldest one in the country. 😢

ETA 2: my source is the PA Covid-19 website.
 
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chrisvee

Well-Known Member

But we waste critical time with this pointless discussion, because the facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will likely never be achieved for Covid-19 or any other coronavirus.
Hopefully people who know much more about this than I do will chime in...but I’ve read that antibodies are one thing and T cell mediated immunity is another. So while antibody immunity might not pan out, there might be T cell immunity that could be reinforced periodically.
 

mousefan1972

Well-Known Member
something like 44% of deaths in PA occurred at long term care facilities.

We (Massachusetts) have you beat. 8330 total deaths due to Covid -19 (confirmed and probable), of which 5277 occurred in LTC facilities (aka nursing homes) 63%. Yay, us? (sarcasm)

Before I get the inevitable, snide "source?" reply- mass.gov covid -19 dashboard. In black and white for all the world to see.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
I think that is exactly what the article is saying is that there needs to be further investigation. That and the fact that someone definitely failed Statistics 101 in college!!! Marie
Did you see my posts about the specific lines mentioned in the article? Comparing the Orlando Health line from 6/28 vs today only shows an increase in 15 positive tests. Does anyone really believe that Orlando Health has only run 15 new tests over the last 16 days? No. Which means that line does not mean what people on the Internet thinks it does. It is a very tiny subset of what must be larger data in another line item (I suspect one of the major labs listed first, with the most amount of tests). What it actually represents, who knows. But it represents such a tiny portion of the overall tests, that the concerns that positivity numbers are wildly inaccurate seems unfounded.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
something like 44% of deaths in PA occurred at long term care facilities.

ETA: so bummed about Philly canceling the Thanksgiving Day parade it’s the oldest one in the country. 😢

ETA 2: my source is the PA Covid-19 website.
It’s even higher.

4,712 deaths from LT care facilities out of 6,931 total deaths. 68% of total.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Did you see my posts about the specific lines mentioned in the article? Comparing the Orlando Health line from 6/28 vs today only shows an increase in 15 positive tests. Does anyone really believe that Orlando Health has only run 15 new tests over the last 16 days? No. Which means that line does not mean what people on the Internet thinks it does. It is a very tiny subset of what must be larger data in another line item (I suspect one of the major labs listed first, with the most amount of tests). What it actually represents, who knows. But it represents such a tiny portion of the overall tests, that the concerns that positivity numbers are wildly inaccurate seems unfounded.
Even if the positivity rate is way overstated, it just means the huge rise is the full picture. That’s good but it’s not great because there is still a massive outbreak occurring in the state.
 

chrisvee

Well-Known Member
Not really. I work in a hospital so I’m exposed daily to people that are positive for the flu.
I’m surprised your hospital doesn’t mandate that you have a flu shot but of course there are a small percentage for whom it’s contraindicated.

I will amend my statement that most of us benefit from herd immunity due to widespread use of flu shots.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
what's Mummers?
Philly’s New Years Day parade. It’s hard to explain exactly. Various clubs in the city get together and perform in the parade with elaborate themes and fancy costumes. Sorta like mardi Gras in philly. Theres a competition part of the parade that takes place in Center City now but the party is when they get back to South Philly all down 2nd street. The formal parade has been around since the early 1900s but the tradition dates all the way back to colonial times.


B8553248-55BF-4D36-97A1-F28303506A82.jpeg
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
We (Massachusetts) have you beat. 8330 total deaths due to Covid -19 (confirmed and probable), of which 5277 occurred in LTC facilities (aka nursing homes) 63%. Yay, us? (sarcasm)

Before I get the inevitable, snide "source?" reply- mass.gov covid -19 dashboard. In black and white for all the world to see.
All of the NE states that got caught in the initial wave of the virus had issues with LT care facilities. It’s certainly better for virus spread now, but still sad that people in those facilities can’t get a lot or in some case any visitors. Even though the facilities are locked down now it’s still risky because the workers are moving around in the general population. A spike in overall cases puts those facilities at more risk despite better practices today then March.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Just when you think it can’t get any worse.

Just like I'm skeptical of some doctor's reports of good news, I'm equally skeptical when it's bad news.

This is just anecdotal reporting. And it wouldn't be unsurprising that a very small minority of people who have complications from COVID are all in the same hospital together. And then doctors seeing that and extrapolating that to something much bigger than it is.

A more systematic survey of all people known to have had COVID needs to be done to see the true extent of after effects.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Hopefully people who know much more about this than I do will chime in...but I’ve read that antibodies are one thing and T cell mediated immunity is another. So while antibody immunity might not pan out, there might be T cell immunity that could be reinforced periodically.
Antibody titers are the easiest way to verify immunity for purposes of employment, but the lack of antibodies doesn't mean a person doesn't have at least partial immunity. The other portion is from memory T cells, but their activity isn't directly measurable by commercial lab tests.

One key point... even if COVID-19 infection incurs neither last B cell- (antibody) nor T cell-mediated immunity (we don't have a definitive answer on this yet), this has nothing to tell us about the efficacy of the vaccines under development. It doesn't matter if natural immunity wains quickly or never occurs, if the vaccine stimulates a strong enough response, it should provide enduring immunity. When and if (mostly likely "when") the initial vaccine arrives, the key questions will be how effectively does it prevent infection and for how long?

And so far, COVID-19, despite some genetic differences between strains, has only produced one phenotype of the spike protein that is the target for the vaccines. We haven't seen the kind of antigenic drift that the yearly influenza strains produce (and hopefully, we won't, but only time will answer this question....).
 
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