Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Andrew C]

I’m pretty sure it means we had some days with record increases a couple weeks ago and didn’t know it.

Overall, what we are seeing is a bureaucratic system, with all the usual inefficiencies, and a lack of strong central management.

We would have to see which dates these deaths land to confirm.

 

[mickeymiss]

Whatever number works for you to keep Disney opens will work for you.

Ah yes, this again. I make zero apologies for thinking safety minded businesses should be open. But I'm genuinely looking for the whole picture. I don't believe in reacting to everything in extreme terms ESPECIALLY when there has been evidence of inflation in a major Florida city.

 

[Rider]

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Sooo as it turns out, it seems that the death count no longer matters. /s

 

[kong1802]

I asked this a another thread. Essentially some labs are only reporting positive tests and not all tests, meaning negative tests aren't a part of the "Total Tests" number which inflates the positivity rate.

So when this was revealed, there were about 4000 positives out of the 250000 reported positives that were from labs that were reporting 100%. I believe there were about 2,500,000 negatives. This gave a 10% positivity rate (numbers have been rounded). 250,000/2,500,000

Lets then add 40000 negatives to the total to keep with the above rate. Now recalculate 250,000/2,540,000 = 9.84 %.

Let's go further. Let's say somehow these small labs are testing 80000 people that are negative. 250,000/2580,000 = 9.69%

It isn't a game changer........

Plus I believe the total number may already be reported in the numbers.

Couldn't we just ask how many they have tested?

 

[Casper Gutman]

Most of the people wanting Disney shuttered again emphasized the positivity rate as most important a week ago so we've now moved on to hospital capacity and mortality? Deaths are still in a lag, no?

Dizzy emoji.

Positivity percentages indicated prevalence in the community. It was generally used as a counter to the claim that increased testing was solely responsible for the increase in cases. It was particularly important in the gap between case discovery and outcomes. Now we’re seeing the increase in hospitalizations and outcomes, which are clearer and harder to deny. It’s not theoretical anymore.

Percentage is still important, however. We need it to be accurate.

 

[Andrew C]

Sooo as it turns out, it seems that the death count no longer matters. /s

It matters. Although I wasn’t always aware the lag in death reporting was so significant until recently. It makes things difficult. Another layer of complexity that we don’t need.

 

[mickey0825]

I was referring specifically to current trends. Either way, we know deaths are slightly increasing. But it still is important to note that this record death count isn’t all from one day or one week.

I live in NY and think it's not accurate at all to compare what Florida is seeing right now and what NY was seeing in April....yes the positive counts are higher but at its peak NY was seeing almost 800 deaths A DAY. Back when he was giving daily briefings, Cuomo said we reached a huge milestone when the deaths dropped under 100 a day. Florida's cases are extremely high and they have just reached over 100 deaths in a day. I know even 1 death is too many but NY had one week in April where over 3,500 people died.

 

[mellyf]

It’s not just a question of risk. What happens when a bunch of teachers are sick for weeks at the same time?

I'm sure subs will be lining up! No problem at all!

 

[Casper Gutman]

People in Europe (not the UK) are spending money at a record pace, in relief as life gets back to normal and people want to get out and celebrate again. That's what "living with the virus" can be like if we are smart about it. If we had things under control as well as Germany does, you can bet I'd be spending more than I should at Disney right now!

The minute it’s truly safe, I’m going to Orlando.

For all the obfuscation and sidetracking, we’ve got one way out of the current situation.

 

[The Mom]

I live in NY and think it's not accurate at all to compare what Florida is seeing right now and what NY was seeing in April....yes the positive counts are higher but at its peak NY was seeing almost 800 deaths A DAY. Back when he was giving daily briefings, Cuomo said we reached a huge milestone when the deaths dropped under 100 a day. Florida's cases are extremely high and they have just reached over 100 deaths in a day. I know even 1 death is too many but NY had one week in April where over 3,500 people died.

I think a lot of people are worried that deaths in those numbers may be in FL's future. Which is why they would like the numbers to start falling.

 

[mickey0825]

I think a lot of people are worried that deaths in those numbers may be in FL's future. Which is why they would like the numbers to start falling.

I agree...but Florida has already eclipsed NY in single day cases and is a fraction of where deaths in NY were. Again...I know 1 is too many, but the mortality rate isn't even close

 

[FullSailDan]

Most of the people wanting Disney shuttered again emphasized the positivity rate as most important a week ago so we've now moved on to hospital capacity and mortality? Deaths are still in a lag, no? Are hospitals overrun?

Dizzy emoji.

This is why we should be relying on the experts like the CDC to provide guidance on what we should be doing. None of us here on this forum are infectious disease experts. That being said, the positivity rate was a forecaster of rising cases, which helps us forecast the impact to medical care, which helps us forecast deaths. The arguments for opening back up in the last few weeks has been that younger people won’t get as sick, that largely those testing positive are asymptomatic, and that our medical facilities shouldn’t be taxed. What we’re seeing nationally, doesn’t quite align with that. I think of this like a hurricane. We’re past the point where a positivity rate is helpful, we already know the wind speed is rising. We’re past the point where arguing over asymptomatic matters, the heavy rains are here. We now need to figure out, can the house withstand both the wind and rain, and are there enough rescue teams to get trapped people out of the flooded areas.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I think a lot of people are worried that deaths in those numbers may be in FL's future. Which is why they would like the numbers to start falling.

Yup. If the negative outcome curve matches the case curve - and is largely is, so far - things will get really, really bad.

Even hoping for a 25% improvement due to new treatments, it will be ugly.

 

[xdan0920]

You were at WDW on opening day. Just so everyone knows.

 

[mickeymiss]

Positivity percentages indicated prevalence in the community. It was generally used as a counter to the claim that increased testing was solely responsible for the increase in cases. It was particularly important in the gap between case discovery and outcomes. Now we’re seeing the increase in hospitalizations and outcomes, which are clearer and harder to deny. It’s not theoretical anymore.

Percentage is still important, however. We need it to be accurate.

Thanks. I'm confused by how the error happened and hope all of the numbers get investigated. We definitely need accurate numbers on everything. This is why people have trust issues about data.. Florida suddenly had a surge disproportionate to any other state and exposing any kind of inflation should turn heads. I wouldn't want to be a resident of Florida wondering what's true. Where is Florida at with capacity?

 

[Andrew C]

I think a lot of people are worried that deaths in those numbers may be in FL's future. Which is why they would like the numbers to start falling.

Don’t y’all essentially have nursing homes on lockdown? That alone should prevent florida from reaching those numbers. That and a better understanding of how to treat the illness. Obviously cases rising continues to be a problem. And this will lead to some sort of death uptick which is horrible. But I don’t see how Florida would get to those NY numbers unless the hospitals were so overwhelmed that the system collapsed.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

My son gets the flu vaccine. My son also got the flu this year.

Nobody claims the flu vaccine is 100% effective since there are several strains of the flu and they have to try to determine which strains to include in the vaccine each year, but it has been shown to lessen the severity of symptoms in cases where it does not prevent you from getting it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

1. He points out its more younger people getting the virus. So, yes, that will lower the death rate stat. However, he ignores that so many young people (and the numbers are growing exponentially) will make it more dangerous for the elderly and those with confounding conditions. The elderly go out to the stores, and guess who's their clerk? A young person that was out partying last night without a mask. It is amazing he doesn't consider the widespread increase of cases as eventually problematic for everyone. But, that's easy to do when you spout of a bunch of stats spinning them in a positive way and ignoring one essential stat: Daily deaths have been increasing. No way to spin that, so, it doesn't get mentioned. Just talk about how the surge of infected youngsters aren't dying as much and look at that percentage and ignore the absolute value of the number of increasing deaths.

2. ICU: "We have so much extra capacity now." -- Is that supposed to be a good thing? As if getting a surge of critical patients is OK because we won't be overwhelmed by them... so... bring them on!!!?? Where's the concern to keep critical patients from happening in the first place?

3. Death rate in this county: So, are we getting stats from the Tampa Bay area or from all of Florida? Because you can do a lot of spinning if for each stat we look at, we then chose whether to look at the overall Florida number, or, chose to look at a particular county's number and use the better looking stat. If Florida does not have a stay-at-home order, then people are mobile within the state and they spread the virus throughout the state. This is a lesson the Panhandle should know so well now that their cases are growing when previously they were crowing about how their area has little to no problems.

4. Test positive rate is down. No. No it isn't. It is *not* at 11%. But, even if that was true, he condemns himself as a hack when he admits that at one time the positive rate was 3%. Well, if it was 3% a while ago, but now up to 11%, then that's horrible. That should be panic mode. But, you know, he's not as pessimistic as some.

Current statewide positive rate: 18% (unless maybe you're only switching to the Tampa Bay area stat to make it look better)...

 

[Horizons '83]

Nobody claims the flu vaccine is 100% effective since there are several strains of the flu and they have to try to determine which strains to include in the vaccine each year, but it has been shown to lessen the severity of symptoms in cases where it does not prevent you from getting it.

Which is why I feel the Covid vaccine will not be 100% immunity either if it continues to mutate. If it can reduce symptoms and severity then that is wonderful however.