Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I too think there will be so much pressure to prevent it from happening. From so many levels. Even half a step backwards (reverting to an earlier phase) they won't do.


However, I think the vast majority of people, wherever they land on this spectrum, at least acknowledge New York had to be closed down. The issue becomes how long will they dig their feet in *if* a state starts to look like New York or Italy. I hope none do, but on the balance of things one likely will with the second wave.

Even more worryingly, what if it does and they still won't reverse course?

The people have a say here too. The government doesn’t have to require a full stay at home order for people to revert to more limitations on their own. There was an article posted here many pages back from one of the FL newspapers where they analyzed cell phone data to track mobility and determined that back in March several weeks before any government imposed shut down orders in FL people began to severely limit their time out of the home and changed their behavior. If there’s a prolonged and dramatic increase in infection it’s possible some (even a lot of) people will just go back to more restricted activity on their own. Things like going back to take out only from restaurants, avoiding crowded shopping areas like malls, avoiding large group gatherings (movie theaters, NASCAR races, theme parks, concerts), go back to praying at home, etc... Although you won’t stop everyone without a government mandate it could have a large impact on slowing spread and may help appease some of the political angst if it’s not mandated.

All that being said, I’m still hopeful that the recent numbers are an outlier and the longer term trend will still show an overall decline and this will all be an academic debate.

 

[lazyboy97o]

The people have a say here too. The government doesn’t have to require a full stay at home order for people to revert to more limitations on their own. There was an article posted here many pages back from one of the FL newspapers where they analyzed cell phone data to track mobility and determined that back in March several weeks before any government imposed shut down orders in FL people began to severely limit their time out of the home and changed their behavior. If there’s a prolonged and dramatic increase in infection it’s possible some (even a lot of) people will just go back to more restricted activity on their own. Things like going back to take out only from restaurants, avoiding crowded shopping areas like malls, avoiding large group gatherings (movie theaters, NASCAR races, theme parks, concerts), go back to praying at home, etc... Although you won’t stop everyone without a government mandate it could have a large impact on slowing spread and may help appease some of the political angst if it’s not mandated.

All that being said, I’m still hopeful that the recent numbers are an outlier and the longer term trend will still show an overall decline and this will all be an academic debate.

One of the things I’ve noticed in my area is that it is mostly the national, corporate managed chain restaurants that have reopened their dining rooms. Local chains, independent restaurants and even many franchises closed their dining rooms before being ordered and still have them closed despite being allowed to reopen.

 

[Phil12]

I guarantee Florida will not close down again period.

Florida is purposely ignoring the reality of increasing spread and deaths. Those of us who live here know to profit from the tourists while still isolating ourselves.

 

[GoofGoof]

Florida is purposely ignoring the reality of increasing spread and deaths. Those of us who live here know to profit from the tourists while still isolating ourselves.

I do worry about those who have no choice but to interact with the tourists for their job. Hopefully if people (customers and employees) remain diligent with following safety protocols and social distancing everyone stays as safe as possible.

 

[JoeCamel]

I do worry about those who have no choice but to interact with the tourists for their job. Hopefully if people (customers and employees) remain diligent with following safety protocols and social distancing everyone stays as safe as possible.

Main reason I wear a mask. Those people have to be in their positions for the most part. I would fear coming in contact with so many people each day during this. I wear it for them.

 

[lilypgirl]

Florida is purposely ignoring the reality of increasing spread and deaths. Those of us who live here know to profit from the tourists while still isolating ourselves.

But the deaths aren’t increasing. In fact deaths and hospitalizations are said to not have increased and remain below the phase 1 opening averages.

 

[ThatMouse]

But the deaths aren’t increasing. In fact deaths and hospitalizations are said to not have increased and remain below the phase 1 opening averages.

I'm more worried about the spread than death rate. There's a long time window where people are pre-symptomatic and spreading it. The spreaders are the ones going around with no masks.

I was kidding when I said Florida may close again. For example, Florida is requiring state employees to fully return to work, even those who have been working fine from home. The return to work plans are submitted by each agency/district, but they are all required to submit a plan where everyone is back to a full office by July and August whether or not the infection rates increase.

In contrast, private companies have a stay at home policy usually for those who are able to do their jobs remotely, and that could actually be permanent for a lot of people if they choose. There are not many remote positions at Disney though.

 

[techgeek]

The people have a say here too. The government doesn’t have to require a full stay at home order for people to revert to more limitations on their own. There was an article posted here many pages back from one of the FL newspapers where they analyzed cell phone data to track mobility and determined that back in March several weeks before any government imposed shut down orders in FL people began to severely limit their time out of the home and changed their behavior. If there’s a prolonged and dramatic increase in infection it’s possible some (even a lot of) people will just go back to more restricted activity on their own. Things like going back to take out only from restaurants, avoiding crowded shopping areas like malls, avoiding large group gatherings (movie theaters, NASCAR races, theme parks, concerts), go back to praying at home, etc... Although you won’t stop everyone without a government mandate it could have a large impact on slowing spread and may help appease some of the political angst if it’s not mandated.

Business also. Let us not forget Universal led the closedown movement in the industry, before required by any jurisdiction. Absent them getting in front of the messaging by a few hours, Disney likely would have made a similar decision independently in short order.

I have no doubt that if Universal or Disney comes to an internal conclusion in the next month that they should not be open... driven by public health or economic data or internal health / safety / legal decision making, that they won’t hesitate to pull the plug again. They aren’t going to wait on a call from the governors office or direction from Orange County leadership.

 

[disney fan 13]

But the deaths aren’t increasing. In fact deaths and hospitalizations are said to not have increased and remain below the phase 1 opening averages.

Deaths and Hospitalizations (neither of which are being accurately reported by the state government) are considered “lagging indicators” because even if people test positive it can take over a week for symptoms to worsen enough for Hospitalizations and even longer for deaths to occur. Many of the people dying currently tested positive in April and early May.

 

[JoeCamel]

But the deaths aren’t increasing. In fact deaths and hospitalizations are said to not have increased and remain below the phase 1 opening averages.

I'm not sure if you understand hospitalizations and deaths lag new cases? Check back in two weeks

 

[MisterPenguin]

Tri-State Travel Restrictions Currently Set to Expire Before Disney Theme Parks Reopen

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However, with the new rise in infections in Florida and increase in percent positive, maybe the Tri-State Region should start banning people from Florida.

 

[disney fan 13]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article242937591.html

Very important context to keep in mind when talking about the official numbers.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[marni1971]

It is known isn't it there’s no fireworks for the foreseeable future?

 

[Kevin_W]

I'm not sure if you understand hospitalizations and deaths lag new cases? Check back in two weeks

Deaths certainly; hospitalizations less so. Many positive tests are recorded when people are admitted into the hospital because that's when the test was administered.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I don’t really see Disney pulling back on the re-opening plans now, but is it really responsible to plow full steam ahead with the cases of the virus continue to rise in Florida the way it has over the past 7+ days?

Universal, Sea World, and LEGO Land should have definitely given more than about 2 weeks of time from re-opening City Walk, to determine if it was really safe to start re-opening the parks.

Had they waited the appropriate and needed time - they might have seen what we’re seeing now that the virus is on the rise in the state.

I guess we’ll see how the case count goes over the next 2 weeks, but if case count remains this high - or gets higher - it’s something that Disney can’t just ignore.

I actually think this is the reason the picked a date so far in advanced. So that if need be they CAN say "you no what, this isn't going to work" We are still a month away. A lot can (WILL) happen before then.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I hope people understand that we won't see the harshest results from the protest until late late June/early July. Yes it can take 14 days for someone to get sick, but it takes longer for someone to become hospital sick, and even longer for someone to die. Thats why we are just really seeing the effect that reopenings, mothers day, and Memorial Day had on the spread.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article242937591.html

Very important context to keep in mind when talking about the official numbers.

So they claim the governor is lying because they allegedly received different numbers from an “inside source”. Can you say with any certainty that the inside source doesn’t have an agenda, and fed them false numbers?

 

[robhedin]

So they claim the governor is lying because they allegedly received different numbers from an “inside source”. Can you say with any certainty that the inside source doesn’t have an agenda, and fed them false numbers?

A while ago, the person that ran the FL COVID dashboard was fired. (right or wrong, isn't at issue here, btw).

She's started her own FL dashboard recently, and the numbers are significantly higher than what is being reported by the state.

Except that she's including people who test positive for antibodies in her "total cases". Setting aside that these antibody tests have a tendency to show false positives, by doing this she's artificially inflating the count of "new" cases today when, in fact, the antibody tests show that the person might have had it sometime in the past.

So, while the overall number might be interesting to get an overview of the possible cumulative impact to the state, it's not particularly useful in answering the question- "are things getting better or worse?" On the other hand, it could be used to show worse numbers and cause people to question the "real" numbers. Everyone has an agenda.

People need to realize that the state is just aggregating data reported from all the counties. To have that data be wrong every county would have to be misreporting things.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

A while ago, the person that ran the FL COVID dashboard was fired. (right or wrong, isn't at issue here, btw).

She's started her own FL dashboard recently, and the numbers are significantly higher than what is being reported by the state.

Except that she's including people who test positive for antibodies in her "total cases". Setting aside that these antibody tests have a tendency to show false positives, by doing this she's artificially inflating the count of "new" cases today when, in fact, the antibody tests show that the person might have had it sometime in the past.

So, while the overall number might be interesting to get an overview of the possible cumulative impact to the state, it's not particularly useful in answering the question- "are things getting better or worse?" On the other hand, it could be used to show worse numbers and cause people to question the "real" numbers. Everyone has an agenda.

People need to realize that the state is just aggregating data reported from all the counties. To have that data be wrong every county would have to be misreporting things.

And I just don’t believe that a lot of the counties have some sort of agenda, so are intentionally reporting false information. Just doesn’t ring true.