Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

Deaths certainly; hospitalizations less so. Many positive tests are recorded when people are admitted into the hospital because that's when the test was administered.

I think less so now with all the community centers open for testing. It is not a good situation with the new cases increasing on the hockey stick but to think that current deaths and hospital admissions will not follow is not logical.
The deaths and ICU visits are slowing as the pros get better at treating, still long lasting damage when you get this but the whole picture is not getting better.

 

[GoofGoof]

And I just don’t believe that a lot of the counties have some sort of agenda, so are intentionally reporting false information. Just doesn’t ring true.

I don’t believe it when people talk about agendas and government officials flat out manipulating the raw numbers. I do believe it (and it’s already been shown) that the state keeps changing the numbers they report and/or the methodology used to report things and also keeps changing the statistics that are “most important“. First it was new cases are irrelevant only percent positive matters. That stat started trending the wrong way now percent positive is out and all that matters is hospitalizations and death rate. The lack of consistency is maddening.

All this nonsense with antibody testing is also very suspicious. Why not just keep a separate tally of positive antibody tests? Why lump the positives, the number tested for antibodies or both into your new case numbers? Makes no sense unless you want to manipulate results. If they want to use positive antibody numbers to compile an all time “total infected“ number they could ask if you ever tested positive when you get the antibody test and if not add any positive antibody people who never tested positive for active Covid to the all time total. That has nothing to do with current cases.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I don’t believe it when people talk about agendas and government officials flat out manipulating the raw numbers. I do believe it (and it’s already been shown) that the state keeps changing the numbers they report and/or the methodology used to report things and also keeps changing the statistics that are “most important“. First it was new cases are irrelevant only percent positive matters. That stat started trending the wrong way now percent positive is out and all that matters is hospitalizations and death rate. The lack of consistency is maddening.

All this nonsense with antibody testing is also very suspicious. Why not just keep a separate tally of positive antibody tests? Why lump the positives, the number tested for antibodies or both into your new case numbers? Makes no sense unless you want to manipulate results. If they want to use positive antibody numbers to compile an all time “total infected“ number they could ask if you ever tested positive when you get the antibody test and if not add any positive antibody people who never tested positive for active Covid to the all time total. That has nothing to do with current cases.

I think the numbers are changing because the counties are updating their numbers. I completely agree that a standard needs to be decided on and stuck with, and it’s unclear why no one seems to be using one. People can spout conspiracy theories and agendas all they want, but I think everything is changing so rapidly with the virus, that not even the experts agree on much of anything.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think the numbers are changing because the counties are updating their numbers. I completely agree that a standard needs to be decided on and stuck with, and it’s unclear why no one seems to be using one. People can spout conspiracy theories and agendas all they want, but I think everything is changing so rapidly with the virus, that not even the experts agree on much of anything.

There is a lot of pressure on the governors around re-opening, both from some of the people and in some cases from the federal government. It’s easy to see why an effort could be made to make the numbers look better to justify re-opening sooner and now especially to fight against any calls to pull back. I agree that at the local or county level it’s unlikely that the people on the ground will be fudging the raw numbers because of an agenda. It’s all about how the raw numbers get tabulated and presented. The classic example being the state of Georgia putting the days out of order to make a graph look better. The raw numbers behind the daily totals were accurate it was the presentation where the “mistake” occurred.

 

[robhedin]

I don’t believe it when people talk about agendas and government officials flat out manipulating the raw numbers. I do believe it (and it’s already been shown) that the state keeps changing the numbers they report and/or the methodology used to report things and also keeps changing the statistics that are “most important“. First it was new cases are irrelevant only percent positive matters. That stat started trending the wrong way now percent positive is out and all that matters is hospitalizations and death rate. The lack of consistency is maddening.

I understand changing numbers to a degree- since the reporting is being aggregated and not everyone reports on the same timeline (as well as tests for today may not be ready for days), some modification of the preceding (week? two weeks?) of data is to be expected.

That said, consistency is key. If you don't track things in the same fashion, it's difficult at best to compare things.

I've never gotten the whole "let's base things off the number of cases" angle. We should care about measurable impact, not how many people have contracted it (given that results can range from very mild to very serious). Bad analogy time: It's like measuring how many people have a birthday today. I'm probably more interested in how many people that had a birthday also had a surprise party.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

There is a lot of pressure on the governors around re-opening, both from some of the people and in some cases from the federal government. It’s easy to see why an effort could be made to make the numbers look better to justify re-opening sooner and now especially to fight against any calls to pull back. I agree that at the local or county level it’s unlikely that the people on the ground will be fudging the raw numbers because of an agenda. It’s all about how the raw numbers get tabulated and presented. The classic example being the state of Georgia putting the days out of order to make a graph look better. The raw numbers behind the daily totals were accurate it was the presentation where the “mistake” occurred.

I haven’t been following Georgia, but where was it proven that they intentionally fixed the numbers?

 

[robhedin]

There is a lot of pressure on the governors around re-opening, both from some of the people and in some cases from the federal government. It’s easy to see why an effort could be made to make the numbers look better to justify re-opening sooner and now especially to fight against any calls to pull back. I agree that at the local or county level it’s unlikely that the people on the ground will be fudging the raw numbers because of an agenda. It’s all about how the raw numbers get tabulated and presented. The classic example being the state of Georgia putting the days out of order to make a graph look better. The raw numbers behind the daily totals were accurate it was the presentation where the “mistake” occurred.

And this backs up my point earlier-- whether the "mistake" was real or intentional didn't matter; they got called on it very quickly. There are too many data scientists and this data is being used by too many people for things like that to go unnoticed for very long.

 

[GoofGoof]

I understand changing numbers to a degree- since the reporting is being aggregated and not everyone reports on the same timeline (as well as tests for today may not be ready for days), some modification of the preceding (week? two weeks?) of data is to be expected.

That said, consistency is key. If you don't track things in the same fashion, it's difficult at best to compare things.

I've never gotten the whole "let's base things off the number of cases" angle. We should care about measurable impact, not how many people have contracted it (given that results can range from very mild to very serious). Bad analogy time: It's like measuring how many people have a birthday today. I'm probably more interested in how many people that had a birthday also had a surprise party.

Trends in case count and percent positive were established as a metric to move out of stay at home orders. That came from the federal level as guidelines and later picked up by most states and implemented.

 

[robhedin]

I haven’t been following Georgia, but where was it proven that they intentionally fixed the numbers?

It was never proven.

The argument was made that the chart was made by an outside vendor who chose the presentation method. But that seems very unlikely since this not how people usually think of data, so it feels like that someone had to go out of their way to generate this. Of course, as I say, someone could have just been stupid.

See: https://www.ajc.com/news/state--reg...uses-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

 

[GoofGoof]

I haven’t been following Georgia, but where was it proven that they intentionally fixed the numbers?

It’s an old story, just pointing out that you can have good data but the powers to be can manipulate it anyway

A 'cuckoo' graph with no sense of time or place shows how Georgia bungled coronavirus data as it reopens

Georgia's health department published a "misleading" graph showing a neat decline in coronavirus cases. An updated version shows the truth is messier.

www.businessinsider.com

And this backs up my point earlier-- whether the "mistake" was real or intentional didn't matter; they got called on it very quickly. There are too many data scientists and this data is being used by too many people for things like that to go unnoticed for very long.

In that case they got busted by reporters because it was really obvious. It was played off as a mistake and not manipulation.

 

[robhedin]

Trends in case count and percent positive were established as a metric to move out of stay at home orders. That came from the federal level as guidelines and later picked up by most states and implemented.

I wasn't saying it wasn't a metric-- I was just saying it's never made sense to me given the data that we've had. It *is* however the easiest to see and it makes for big numbers so.

 

[robhedin]

In that case they got busted by reporters because it was really obvious. It was played off as a mistake and not manipulation.

And getting into conspiracy theories myself now, but none of the software I've seen (when dealing with dates) works this way by default. Whether it was done by the state or an outside vendor, this particular "mistake" really feels less "oopsie" and more "let's look for a particular shape".

But it got corrected, so that's something. Yay for the Fourth Estate!

 

[LuvtheGoof]

It’s an old story, just pointing out that you can have good data but the powers to be can manipulate it anyway

A 'cuckoo' graph with no sense of time or place shows how Georgia bungled coronavirus data as it reopens

Georgia's health department published a "misleading" graph showing a neat decline in coronavirus cases. An updated version shows the truth is messier.

www.businessinsider.com

In that case they got busted by reporters because it was really obvious. It was played off as a mistake and not manipulation.

Ok. Thanks.

 

[GoofGoof]

Changing topics a little:

Beijing goes into 'wartime mode' and locks down after a spike in coronavirus cases emerge at a wholesale market

The discovery has prompted the capital to immediately ban inter-province tourism, shut schools, and suspend sports events.

www.yahoo.com

Beijing is 700 miles from Shanghai, but I wonder if the ban on inter-province tourism impacts Shanghai Disneyland or are most of their customers local?

 

[disney fan 13]

So they claim the governor is lying because they allegedly received different numbers from an “inside source”. Can you say with any certainty that the inside source doesn’t have an agenda, and fed them false numbers?

I don’t think the story would run if they didn’t confirm their numbers were legit. This is the same Newsroom that blew the lid on the Jeffrey Epstein deal fwiw.

 

[disneygeek90]

Changing topics a little:

Beijing goes into 'wartime mode' and locks down after a spike in coronavirus cases emerge at a wholesale market

The discovery has prompted the capital to immediately ban inter-province tourism, shut schools, and suspend sports events.

www.yahoo.com

Beijing is 700 miles from Shanghai, but I wonder if the ban on inter-province tourism impacts Shanghai Disneyland or are most of their customers local?

Interestingly enough, masks aren't required in Shanghai DL anymore. There's been a YouTube account posting updates of his visits every few days since the reopen and oh his latest video posted yesterday he said they're no longer required based on a "few weeks" of no new cases in Shanghai. I wonder how quickly they might roll that back if cases do come back. However, looking at his video it still looks like a decent amount are still wearing one.

Edit: Masks are still required inside, just not walking around outside.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Interestingly enough, masks aren't required in Shanghai DL anymore. There's been a YouTube account posting updates of his visits every few days since the reopen and he said they're no longer required based on a "few weeks" of no new cases in Shanghai. I wonder how quickly they might roll that back if cases do come back. However, looking at his video it still looks like a decent amount are still wearing one.

Edit: Masks are still required inside, just not walking around outside.

Shanghai is such a different animal. The contact tracing there alone makes things 1000x safer than the US. The fact we, as a country, just gave up on this rather than putting all our technological might into stopping it is something that historians will be looking at for many years.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I don’t think the story would run if they didn’t confirm their numbers were legit. This is the same Newsroom that blew the lid on the Jeffrey Epstein deal fwiw.

Sure, go ahead and believe that. The news media today cares only about clicks, not the truth.

 

[Chi84]

Interestingly enough, masks aren't required in Shanghai DL anymore. There's been a YouTube account posting updates of his visits every few days since the reopen and oh his latest video posted yesterday he said they're no longer required based on a "few weeks" of no new cases in Shanghai. I wonder how quickly they might roll that back if cases do come back. However, looking at his video it still looks like a decent amount are still wearing one.

Edit: Masks are still required inside, just not walking around outside.

I'm glad to see this because I don't believe that wearing masks outside at Disney will do anything at all to prevent the spread of the virus, especially in light of the type of masks people are wearing them and how they are wearing them.

That said, the people who believe that masks are not that effective need to stop acting like donkeys. I just saw another video of some woman coughing and spitting all over employees who asked her to comply with their store's mask requirement. It's not your call - the decisions regarding mask-wearing are being made by government officials and businesses that are acting entirely within their authority in making those rules. These decisions need to be made despite the fact that little is known about the virus - so give them a break. Unlike the sacrifices made by prior generations, no one is asking you to go to war. This isn't about your constitutional rights. And please stop denigrating the phrase "my body, my choice." It's a mask.

 

[robhedin]

The decisions regarding mask-wearing are being made by government officials and businesses that are acting entirely within their authority in making those rules

Totally agree with this. I'm not a fan of the whole mask wearing thing. But at the same time, I get that if I want to go onto someone's private property and that's their rule, then so be it.

The GA Aquarium opened today for the first time, they asked everyone to wear a mask to get in, so I did. (Well worth the experience, btw).

That said, that was in a fully indoor, climate controlled environment. I'm definitely worried how things will be outside in July/August in Florida. Wearing a mask for a couple of hours at KSC a couple of weeks ago was bad enough.