Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JD2000]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52968523

“And the work comes from the same group that guided the UK's decision to go into lockdown.”

that group included neil ferguson. his modeling always turns out very wrong.

“assume nobody would have changed their behaviour in response to the Covid threat without a lockdown.”

so traditional methods of limiting spread could have been enough. particularly when you consider the data (on fatality rate, etc) we have now that was always likely.

“The study also does not take into account the health consequences of lockdowns that may take years to fully uncover..”

that pretty much speaks for itself.

“The model also predicted that the outbreak would be nearly over by now without lockdown, as so many people would have been infected. ... More than seven in 10 people in the UK would have had Covid, leading to herd immunity and the virus no longer spreading.”

just as many people could die in the long term. lockdowns only prolonged the inevitable but at great cost.

“And it means that as lockdowns start to lift, there is the risk the virus could start to spread again. ... There is a very real risk if mobility goes back up there could be a second wave coming reasonably soon, in the next month or two.”

that is contrary to data we already gained from places where lockdowns were lifted weeks ago.


Mods: this may be controversial, but it is important to hear the other side. it may even be considered political. do show mercy.

 

[MisterPenguin]

And now comes the clarification - worth watching.

"We do know that some people who are asymptomatic can transmit the virus."

 

[Rider]

These are not equal comparisons. We got off to a horrible start dealing with this due to a number of issues. These two countries were able to handle the situation differently, based on a number of factors including size and testing capabilities at the time. We can’t go back in time and change the past. Now, we have to deal with the current reality. And what I’m stating is the current reality. Eventually the cases will drop across the board. But it is going to take a while to get there. In the meantime, we deal with what we can control and assess risk as we reopen. We aren’t doing “nothing”

We can't get our act together on contact tracers: https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/501416-urgency-mounts-for-a-contact-tracing-army

Or testing: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/health/testing-coronavirus-cidrap-report/index.html

More than half of states may be undercounting coronavirus cases by not following CDC guidelines

At least 28 states are not following US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on reporting new Covid-19 cases -- half of which saw the trend of new cases increasing in the last week.

www.cnn.com

And it's getting worse: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...where-coronavirus-is-still-getting-worse.html

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Increase in testing but same positivity rate will lead to more positive tests.

Targeted testing will lead to more positive tests.

I cannot imagine ever believing we would not see a rise in cases in some way, whether we started opening in May or November. We put people at home away from being exposed. Now, more people are out and about and we changed the way we do testing. As I said, inevitable.

But distancing should flatten the curve no matter who you’re testing...IF people aren’t stupid.

Not rocket science

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'm not seeing the gap your refer to, at lease in an obvious way.

It only gets reported in this thread every other week...

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

But since the rationales you gave for why asymptomatic people don't spread the virus has shown to be false, and clearly contrary to experience, it's a moot point.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

It only gets reported in this thread every other week...

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

Yes, except how many people have died over the last 3 months from something other than COVID-19, but after testing positive, were counted as a COVID-19 death - even though the virus may have had nothing to do with their death. My prediction is that it is in the thousands worldwide, and maybe even here in the U.S.

 

[Prince-1]

But distancing should flatten the curve no matter who you’re testing...IF people aren’t stupid.

Not rocket science

“If people aren’t stupid”.

Only if.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yes, except how many people have died over the last 3 months from something other than COVID-19, but after testing positive, were counted as a COVID-19 death - even though the virus may have had nothing to do with their death. My prediction is that it is in the thousands worldwide, and maybe even here in the U.S.

If that were the case then there would have been reported more COVID deaths than this year's extra surge. But the exact opposite has happened.

Governments and jurisdiction have been under constant criticism that they have been underreporting COVID complicated deaths.

The fact that COVID is especially deadly to those with pre-existing conditions makes it much more likely that the entire bump of deaths that have not been attributed to COVID should have been.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

If that were the case then there would have been reported more COVID deaths than this year's extra surge. But the exact opposite has happened.

Governments and jurisdiction have been under constant criticism that they have been underreporting COVID complicated deaths.

The fact that COVID is especially deadly to those with pre-existing conditions makes it much more likely that the entire bump of deaths that have not been attributed to COVID should have been.

Maybe, but the fact is that no one knows for sure, as that isn't even being investigated. And who is criticizing the governments for under reporting? The news media that only wants to sensationlize every single story? Again, my belief is that the COVID-19 deaths are being over reported, not under.

 

[Horizons '83]

It only gets reported in this thread every other week...

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

But since the rationales you gave for why asymptomatic people don't spread the virus has shown to be false, and clearly contrary to experience, it's a moot point.

What is interesting, I have 2 great friends that are administrators at hospitals that have confirmed this, is that there is truth that hospitals benefit from listing medicare patients who pass away with any type of covid symptom as a covid death regardless if that is 100%, its part of that "presumed" category. I'm sure I can pull up the numbers from somewhere, but the hospitals get paid 3 fold if they end up on ventilators.

All that to say, that numbers can be deceiving and manipulated to tell whatever narrative you see fit.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

What is interesting, I have 2 great friends that are administrators at hospitals that have confirmed this, is that there is truth that hospitals benefit from listing medicare patients who pass away with any type of covid symptom as a covid death regardless if that is 100%, its part of that "presumed" category. I'm sure I can pull up the numbers from somewhere, but the hospitals get paid 3 fold if they end up on ventilators.

All that to say, that numbers can be deceiving and manipulated to tell whatever narrative you see fit.

Exactly my point.

 

[Horizons '83]

Exactly my point.

And just to cover all my bases, i'm not an expert, not a hospital administrator, but I am a data analyst with more years of experience i'd like to admit, and you can get VERY creative in reporting what you want your audience to see. I have no answers either, but I think there is validity to both sides of this issue.

 

[sbunit]

What is interesting, I have 2 great friends that are administrators at hospitals that have confirmed this, is that there is truth that hospitals benefit from listing medicare patients who pass away with any type of covid symptom as a covid death regardless if that is 100%, its part of that "presumed" category. I'm sure I can pull up the numbers from somewhere, but the hospitals get paid 3 fold if they end up on ventilators.

All that to say, that numbers can be deceiving and manipulated to tell whatever narrative you see fit.

This is supposedly true. Medicare in NY state pays a large fee (rumored to be $13k per patient admitted for Covid) and an even higher fee (Rumored to be $39k) if they are placed on a ventilator.

I am also in healthcare (not hospital based, private practice) and have several close friends who are attending physicians at various hospitals who have all confirmed that at least initially anyone that came in for anything investigated for Covid and if Covid was confirmed it was usually placed as presumed cause of death (even in trauma based cases). Hospitals are big business, don't be fooled.

 

[Horizons '83]

This is supposedly true. Medicare in NY state pays a large fee (rumored to be $13k per patient admitted for Covid) and an even higher fee (Rumored to be $39k) if they are placed on a ventilator.

Those sound about right, my friend was mentioning that early on, with very little revenue coming in from elective surgeries (hospitals bread and butter), this was a way to fill the gap, just short of gaming the system.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If that were the case then there would have been reported more COVID deaths than this year's extra surge. But the exact opposite has happened.

Governments and jurisdiction have been under constant criticism that they have been underreporting COVID complicated deaths.

The fact that COVID is especially deadly to those with pre-existing conditions makes it much more likely that the entire bump of deaths that have not been attributed to COVID should have been.

Maybe, but the fact is that no one knows for sure, as that isn't even being investigated. And who is criticizing the governments for under reporting? The news media that only wants to sensationlize every single story? Again, my belief is that the COVID-19 deaths are being over reported, not under.

The statistic is “deaths above normal/average”

The numbers that die from cancer, heart disease, diabetes complications, the flu, traffic accidents, hangnails, etc are known and consistent in a computer data world.

Why are they up? Covid. That’s the change from every other excuse.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Maybe, but the fact is that no one knows for sure, as that isn't even being investigated. And who is criticizing the governments for under reporting? The news media that only wants to sensationlize every single story? Again, my belief is that the COVID-19 deaths are being over reported, not under.

What is interesting, I have 2 great friends that are administrators at hospitals that have confirmed this, is that there is truth that hospitals benefit from listing medicare patients who pass away with any type of covid symptom as a covid death regardless if that is 100%, its part of that "presumed" category. I'm sure I can pull up the numbers from somewhere, but the hospitals get paid 3 fold if they end up on ventilators.

All that to say, that numbers can be deceiving and manipulated to tell whatever narrative you see fit.

Just look at that link again. By the end of May, there where 16 thousand more deaths in the U.S. than normal. That's **after** removing all those that had been designated as COVID deaths.

Did 16 thousand people suddenly have a coincidental mass heart attack in those two months the virus was going around?

If COVID deaths were being systematically overcounted hospital by hospital, doctor by doctor, town by town, county by county in some grand conspiracy, then the opposite would have happened, namely there would be a deficit in the average death rate, not a surplus.

And if you weren't aware of news reports of the claims that many districts were under counting to hide how bad the situation was, or, out of ignorance out of how widespread the virus was and missing COVID-complicated deaths well, then you missed that month-long news cycle.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

The statistic is “deaths above normal/average”

The numbers that die from cancer, heart disease, diabetes complications, the flu, traffic accidents, hangnails, etc are known and consistent in a computer data world.

Why are they up? Covid. That’s the change from every other excuse.

All I'm saying is that, in all probability, not all of the deaths are COVID-19 related, but they are going to be reported as such since the hospitals get a lot more money.

And you cannot state with any certainty that there haven't been more cancer, heart disease, and diabetes deaths than normal, as no one is looking for that cause once the person has tested positive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All I'm saying is that, in all probability, not all of the deaths are COVID-19 related, but they are going to be reported as such since the hospitals get a lot more money.

And you cannot state with any certainty that there haven't been more cancer, heart disease, and diabetes deaths than normal, as no one is looking for that cause once the person has tested positive.

I think the likelihood is more are not reported than over reported. That jives with what the health researchers/models have said.

This has happened...it is real...and some places are begging for more fun.

As far as hospitals and money...maybe. But another favorite hoax theory is the state’s were “pocketing” money - like $13,000 a person - for covid cases.

In my state...that would be $1.9 billion.

Lots of cash...except of the $8-10 bil hole blown in the budget in tax revenue decline

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Just look at that link again. By the end of May, there where 16 thousand more deaths in the U.S. than normal. That's **after** removing all those that had been designated as COVID deaths.

Did 16 thousand people suddenly have a coincidental mass heart attack in those two months the virus was going around?

If COVID deaths were being systematically overcounted hospital by hospital, doctor by doctor, town by town, county by county in some grand conspiracy, then the opposite would have happened, namely there would be a deficit in the average death rate, not a surplus.

And if you weren't aware of news reports of the claims that many districts were under counting to hide how bad the situation was, or, out of ignorance out of how widespread the virus was and missing COVID-complicated deaths well, then you missed that month-long news cycle.

Again, is it not the news media claiming the under reporting? We will never know for sure what happened with those 16,000 - if that number is even close to accurate. Maybe we had a worse than normal flu season, as lots died from that, even while COVID-19 was around. Maybe the lack of hospital care contributed to a lot of them. My point is that we will never know the truth.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I think the likelihood is more are not reported than over reported. That jives with what the health researchers/models have said.

This has happened...it is real...and some places are begging for more fun.

As far as hospitals and money...maybe. But another favorite hoax theory is the state’s were “pocketing” money - like $13,000 a person - for covid cases.

In my state...that would be $1.9 billion.

Lots of cash...except of the $8-10 bil hole blown in the budget in tax revenue decline

I have never before and never will call it a hoax. It is definitely real. I'm sorry, but "models" are only as good as the data it is looking at, and as far as this virus is concerned - the models are all over the place depending on what narrative that the people doing the modeling want to present.