Letteyeti
Well-Known Member
It just don't make sense. I mean how can everyone have had it or have it like Nurses and Doctor and be treating those who are in the ICU Units with it? That don't make any sense at all.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
I am pretty sure it was determined that the refurb was delayed for the foreseeable future. I would guess that means it should be operated with the park but I'm not 100% on that.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
We have Kings Island, Cedar Point, and Worlds of Fun opening dates, masks required, waterpark dates yet to be determined@21stamps
www.wlwt.com
Kings Island announces opening dates with new guidelines for visitors, employees
Kings Island is ready to welcome back visitors, setting its opening dates for season passholders and daily ticketholders.
www.wlwt.com
Rider
Well-Known Member
You obviously didn't read what I said as I stated that is the death rate for reported cases.
More cases leads to more death. For every 1000 new cases in Florida at least 57 people are going to die. Likely many more without being diagnosed.
Any increase in numbers should be unacceptable. If we don't control those numbers they start to increase exponentially again.
Chi84
Premium Member
The virus is too new for the scientific community to have a definitive answer on how it is spread or the best ways to contain it. So they look to models, which vary greatly based on underlying assumptions and other matters, and small studies, which can be unreliable because of insufficient data. The clarification explained what the WHO was relying on and did walk back the most far-ranging "very rare" wording.The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’
A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.”
Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.
“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.
Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.
Scientists had sharply criticized the W.H.O. for creating confusion on the issue, given the far-ranging public policy implications. Governments around the world have recommended face masks and social distancing measures because of the risk of asymptomatic transmission.
A range of scientists said Dr. Van Kerkhove’s comments did not reflect the current scientific research.
“All of the best evidence suggests that people without symptoms can and do readily spread SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19,” scientists at the Harvard Global Health Institute said in a statement on Tuesday.
“Communicating preliminary data about key aspects of the coronavirus without much context can have tremendous negative impact on how the public and policymakers respond to the pandemic.”
A widely cited paper published in April suggested that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of symptoms, and estimated that 44 percent of new infections are a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms.
Dr. Van Kerkhove and other W.H.O. experts reiterated the importance of physical distancing, personal hygiene, testing, tracing, quarantine and isolation in controlling the pandemic.
Surging Coronavirus Cases Push Latin America ‘to the Limit’ (Published 2020)
The U.S. caseload, already the world’s highest, is approaching two million. A book about the fall of France in 1940 has become a hit during the pandemic.www.nytimes.com
But governments, businesses and individuals need to act now and turn to organizations like the CDC and WHO to provide guidance on what to do, despite the incomplete data. These organizations have said from the beginning that the virus is spread primarily through prolonged contact with infected individuals. The main point of their statements seems to be that resources should be primarily directed to identifying infected individuals by widespread testing and preventing the spread by contact tracing. That's not as visible or easy to do as wearing a face mask, but it's far more important. The message that is being sent is that social distancing in terms of staying home as much as possible and avoiding large gatherings where one can have prolonged exposure to infected people (as opposed to merely avoiding getting too close to people in passing) is more important than, for example, wearing a face mask on EE on the chance that you have the virus and may cough, sending a speeding virus particle directly into the nose of the person sitting behind you. If these organizations overstate their case, it may be to try to get people to refocus on what they have said from the beginning.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
You’re gonna have a hard time reopening anything this year at all if this is the standard. Increases in cases when reopening it pretty much inevitable. What is important is how to handle these increases.
DVCakaCarlF
Well-Known Member
From the beginning, the number of cases was never going to be lowered...the point of all these controls, closures, etc. was to keep the case count, at any given moment, at or below the capacity for medical professionals to respond to those in need.
The amount of positive cases will increase as testing continues.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disney drives the car. That will never change.
Disney also is in the best position to be cautious...something that doesn’t help Comcast, seaworld, Orlando, Tallahassee, airlines, hotels, the Queen of Sheba, etc.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
And yet...it’s been 100 days. Really not much excuse for rising numbers other than “stupidity” unless it’s healthcare or care home related
TiggerDad
Well-Known Member
WHO walks back comments calling asymptomatic transmission of coronavirus "very rare"
The agency said it regrets the confusion the comments caused and that asymptomatic spread does occur.
www.axios.com
I think that many people are expecting too much certainty about what is safe and what is dangerous when dealing with something that is novel (new). My opinion is that it's better to err on the safe side but many others are looking for any excuse to ditch the restrictions.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Increase in testing but same positivity rate will lead to more positive tests.
Targeted testing will lead to more positive tests.
I cannot imagine ever believing we would not see a rise in cases in some way, whether we started opening in May or November. We put people at home away from being exposed. Now, more people are out and about and we changed the way we do testing. As I said, inevitable.
Your numbers are a little off--
So as-of today, the mortality rate in Florida is closer to 4.2% than 5.7% based on reported data.
The expectation has always been that there would be an increase in cases upon reopening. The intent, however, is that that increase in cases would not overwhelm the healthcare system. If we say we're not going to reopen until there can't be any new cases, I'm not sure we'll ever re-open.
Rider
Well-Known Member
Why can't we? Other countries have managed to do it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...9-restrictions-after-nation-declared-no-cases
The Latest: South Korea reports 38 new cases of COVID-19
The Latest on the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 causes mild or moderate symptoms for most people. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness or death
apnews.com
It's because we would much rather take the easy short term route of doing nothing but telling everyone to go back to work because 100,000 deaths are somehow easier than doing the hard work of testing more people and hiring contact tracers.
Rider
Well-Known Member
My data source was listed in the original post: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
It's for the US as a whole.
I agree that it might be better to err on the safe side - I know my DW and I will be. The problem arises when all of these so called "experts" don't even agree on anything, and their dialog changes frequently. Yes, I know that this is a "new" virus, but many people are just tired of being told something one day, and then the next day, a new study comes out that completely contradicts what was just released - and sometimes by the same organization! So how does anyone know what to believe???WHO walks back comments calling asymptomatic transmission of coronavirus "very rare"
The agency said it regrets the confusion the comments caused and that asymptomatic spread does occur.
I think that many people are expecting too much certainty about what is safe and what is dangerous when dealing with something that is novel (new). My opinion is that it's better to err on the safe side but many others are looking for any excuse to ditch the restrictions.
Since the states are opening, yes, we are seeing a rise in the numbers of cases, as would be expected with the greater number of people being tested, but nothing like a second more horrific wave as some of the "experts" predicted 2 months ago. In most cases, the percentage of positives is still going down, even with a lot more people out and about. I think that's the good sign.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
These are not equal comparisons. We got off to a horrible start dealing with this due to a number of issues. These two countries were able to handle the situation differently, based on a number of factors including size and testing capabilities at the time. We can’t go back in time and change the past. Now, we have to deal with the current reality. And what I’m stating is the current reality. Eventually the cases will drop across the board. But it is going to take a while to get there. In the meantime, we deal with what we can control and assess risk as we reopen. We aren’t doing “nothing”Why can't we? Other countries have managed to do it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...9-restrictions-after-nation-declared-no-cases
The Latest: South Korea reports 38 new cases of COVID-19
The Latest on the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 causes mild or moderate symptoms for most people. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness or death
It's because we would much rather take the easy short term route of doing nothing but telling everyone to go back to work because 100,000 deaths are somehow easier than doing the hard work of testing more people and hiring contact tracers.
Rider
Well-Known Member
Science isn't easy. If it was we would have a vaccine for COVID (and cancer and AIDS and the common cold) already. Experts are not omnipotent and are doing what they think is best with the information they have.
And the "disagreements" help further science. If scientists were not allowed to disagree new things would never be discovered. This is how the process works... It's just never been so public and so important in the modern era.
As for the second wave, it's complicated and might not appear as simply as one big new wave worldwide. And the worst predictions are for this fall/winter when flu season returns to overwhelm hospitals again. https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-what-a-second-wave-might-look-like-138980
Please provide a link the government is talking of a possible second spike in the autumn. Not that I wish you’re not right.
Right. And mine were from the actual source of the data from Florida as of this morning.
It's important to realize that the JHU numbers aggregate data from a number of sources across the US. Setting aside the disparate reporting at the various county levels, that data explicitly includes major hotbed areas such as NYC that disproportionally skew the data. (albeit, if you're in one of those hotbeds, it is impactful and the inclusion of lesser impacted locations skews the numbers the opposite direction)
However, since we're talking about Walt Disney World opening, the mortality rate for Florida probably gives us something a bit closer to actual. However, even that is going to be off because it doesn't take into account the cohorts affected. (i.e. are the majority of people going to Disney under or over 65?)
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Maybe its this one he/she is referring to?
Second more deadly wave of coronavirus expected 'to hit Europe this winter'
Europe's top WHO official warns that second spike could coincide with outbreaks of other infectious diseases
www.telegraph.co.uk
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