Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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bdearl41

Well-Known Member
We really don't. Because we're not testing enough, and because of asymptomatic spread, and because some never even show symptoms at all. The projections are nice, but they're just extrapolations and estimates. Studies are great, but until they're including thousands of people and there are other studies to validate them, they're just data that doesn't mean a ton.

ETA: I'm going on the assumption that all our numbers are low simply because of the factors I mention above.
I couldn’t agree more. It all comes down to testing. Also I’m with you. I think the infection rate is higher than reported. Which if you think long term, is probably a great thing. More likely to catch it but multiples more likely to survive.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I couldn’t agree more. It all comes down to testing. Also I’m with you. I think the infection rate is higher than reported. Which if you think long term, is probably a great thing. More likely to catch it but multiples more likely to survive.
Nothing will be served by not testing and gathering as much data as possible...

Maybe we actually determine the “herd” immunity level? Or maybe we have a boatload of data to use to prepare for next winter?

The only stupid move is to ignore it....
...queue the stupid move.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
I fully understand why. Georgia, for example, has been on a downward trend; hospitals are not overly impacted any longer. Same with Tennessee. The whole reason for the closure was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. That appears to no longer be an issue. The authorities believe and expect an uptick in cases, some of which may require hospitalization, however they also believe that the current healthcare system can handle that new load. Given that 92% of deaths/serious cases are in people over 55, they've kept (or added) certain restrictions for that age cohort to help ensure they're not placed at additional risk.

But at this point the general public has lost sight of the fact that this was the reason for the closures. (And/or the message has changed from government.)
 

bdearl41

Well-Known Member
Nothing will be served by not testing and gathering as much data as possible...

Maybe we actually determine the “herd” immunity level? Or maybe we have a boatload of data to use to prepare for next winter?

The only stupid move is to ignore it....
...queue the stupid move.
Stupid moves. It’s what we are best at!!!! Haha
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Nothing will be served by not testing and gathering as much data as possible...

Maybe we actually determine the “herd” immunity level? Or maybe we have a boatload of data to use to prepare for next winter?

The only stupid move is to ignore it....
...queue the stupid move.
There is so much we don’t know. More than what we do. On the idea that more people were infected than reported that’s a good thing for the mortality rate but it also means the virus is more contagious than originally thought. More contagious means higher percent of population needs to be immune for herd immunity to work. We originally thought this virus was somewhere between the flu on the lower end and measles on the higher end. If antibody tests show many more people were infected than originally thought we could skew further towards measles. That means we probably need a much stronger push to get people to vaccinate than when something like H1N1 came around. Not the 95% needed to contain measles but more than the 40% we were originally thinking.
 

wdwmagic

Administrator
Moderator
Premium Member
Some interesting numbers on the current state of tourism from Visit Orlando today.

Currently: Average daily Rate at hotels is $62. 50% of hotels open running at 15% occupancy. Domestic air seat capacity is at 8%. 72% plan to travel within 6 months. 56% ready to stay at a hotel. 33% plan to stay closer to home or travel by car.

90% visitation is from the USA. 70% of those drive.
 

wannabeBelle

Well-Known Member
Schools and Jersey shore - two different things and two different time lines. I’ll just keep it to stuff that is relevant for WDW and this thread. Even people with NJ-sized attitudes can social distance and follow rules, and it’s not cool to open only to locals.
I would assume that the difference would be that most schools (Any I have ever been in anyhow) cannot socially distance students enough to remain open. At the Jersey Shore it can be done. Also if you get to the beach and it looks too crowded, you can always return home. Attendance at school would be mandatory.
Similar to
They go on to say LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under limited physical distancing protocols. So while the “rules” might say that you can legally go out in public and do the things you want to do in phase 3 they are still recommending some level of social or physical distancing I assume until there is a vaccine or the virus goes away on its own (I can dream:)).
Id be much more comfortable attending a church service at my parish than attending a Giants Football game at Giant Stadium. So again I Am making choices that I think are appropriate for me and within the guidelines. Slow opening and see what happens is my thought. I think this seems to be the direction this is headed in. Marie
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Some interesting numbers on the current state of tourism from Visit Orlando today.

Currently: Average daily Rate at hotels is $62. 50% of hotels open running at 15% occupancy. Domestic air seat capacity is at 8%. 72% plan to travel within 6 months. 56% ready to stay at a hotel. 33% plan to stay closer to home or travel by car.

90% visitation is from the USA. 70% of those drive.
Thank you for the data!

This frequently comes up...many do not understand where the bulk of Disney business comes from...its overwhelming domestic and out of state.

And talk of re-opening should bare this in mind.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
That's interesting. Does anyone have more info on this?
In this case...there has been a push by some towns to restrict their tourism/recreational venues to themselves...

He called BS on that for 2 reasons:
1. Those places are heavily state money supported...through one means or another
2. The myth of all tourist towns is that they don’t need the tourists. That’s BS...the accountants know the truth.

Those two realities apply really anywhere in the US.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Id be much more comfortable attending a church service at my parish than attending a Giants Football game at Giant Stadium. So again I Am making choices that I think are appropriate for me and within the guidelines. Slow opening and see what happens is my thought. I think this seems to be the direction this is headed in. Marie
I don’t disagree with that. I clipped the list of examples straight from the federal guidelines so not my attempt to judge any of those individual activities. This is directly as published by the CDC for phase 3:
LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under limited physical distancing protocols
I was only pointing this out to highlight that even in phase 3 things may not be totally back to normal until we have a vaccine or the virus is gone.
 

Parker in NYC

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
In this case...there has been a push by some towns to restrict their tourism/recreational venues to themselves...

He called BS on that for 2 reasons:
1. Those places are heavily state money supported...through one means or another
2. The myth of all tourist towns is that they don’t need the tourists. That’s BS...the accountants know the truth.

Those two realities apply really anywhere in the US.

So this changes that locals-only reopening hypothetical. And I mean hypothetical. Like everything else.
 

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Won’t be summer camps either...no one has thought of that yet i bet?

I got a note about summer bible camp for two of my boys. They're going to move it to online only. My wife laughed and decided to pull them out of it. More so because our experience with online-only has been middling at best and she wasn't willing to pay for another substandard experience.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
So this changes that locals-only reopening hypothetical. And I mean hypothetical. Like everything else.
In Disney world?

It frankly was never a working example unless is was like a weekend pilot program...

Two groups that won’t get it back to profitability:
1. Orlando residents (not enough green, jellybean)
2. Florida residents - Large, but finnicky for a lot of reasons.

Open is gonna have to be “open” for Disney to budge.
 
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