Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ImperfectPixie]

So then you sit tight until you get the all clear from whatever higher authority you are awaiting validation from.

I'm watching the virus and how it's heading west and spreading across America. When the numbers start declining instead of increasing, then I'll feel a bit more safe, thanks.

 

[robhedin]

(I have no problem with states starting to re-open and gradually rolling back the lockdowns we've seen). At the same time, I would not put the states re-opening as a sign that you're safe or that it's the absolute right direction. It comes down to risk/reward and the states are looking that the risk level is low at this time and thus are willing to trial this (keep in mind, they will pull it back if it starts to get out of hand or cases start climbing much faster than their appetite for risk will allow). The virus is not gone, it's still dangerous to go out as there are many unknown elements around this virus.

Exactly. There is way too much about this that we just don't know. Take a look at Arkansas-- no stay-at-home orders and they've had very low rates. Is that because no one wants to go to Arkansas? Maybe-- but they *did* have cases. So the Virus was/is there. But it's not being as impactful as places like NYC. Is it due to population density? The air in the Ozarks? We just don't know.

The way we will know is to deliberately and methodically ease restrictions *if the risk seems to be low enough* -- and be willing to step back if necessary.

As usually happens, the extremes on both ends of the spectrum are probably wrong -- the real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

[GoofGoof]

Actually no. It’s not.

Do you actually understand why states are starting to reopen or why people are going out again?

I’ll give you a hint. It has nothing to do with science, data, health care, safety, or the virus.

Ask yourself this question. What has changed regarding the virus or our response to it between now and early March when shutdowns began that warrants lifting them now?

I am trying to be more optimistic than you on the why. I actually watched the press conference where the FL governor laid out the why. It was a more compelling argument than I expected. It was actually a pretty solid argument minus the handful of slides completely wasted on bashing media reports that predicted doom and gloom. I miss the days when our elected officials were actually above that kind of petty nonsense but I don’t expect those days back anytime soon (I hope that doesn’t come off as too political but it’s a pet peeve of mine on both sides - steps off soap box ).

Back on topic, we need to eventually try to open things back up. We need to take it slow. We need to do it based on local conditions not at the national level. So far FL checks the boxes. I’m no sure they are ready for extensive contact tracing yet, so that my only hold back on the plan. If they jump to phase 3 in 4 weeks I’ll be the first one on here killing the state for being stupid. So far so good.

 

[Bob Harlem]

It makes sense to start reopening if the point was not to overwhelm the hospitals--and in this area they are way under normal utilization--, that was accomplished, so relaxing restrictions is the only sane thing to do. I'd expect some bits of the resorts to open up around memorial day weekend if things go ok with what's starting in the Orlando area today. Leave it up to the individual and business to gauge their own risk vs fear and be mindful of context whenever you hear numbers thrown around.

 

[DisneyCane]

I'm watching the virus and how it's heading west and spreading across America. When the red on this map is dwindling instead of increasing, then I'll feel a bit more safe, thanks.
View attachment 468294

Is that map counting total cases, new cases or active cases? Depending on the answer it leads to a different interpretation.

In general, in some of these places, the virus isn't spreading there now, it's just being detected now by increased testing.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Exactly. There is way too much about this that we just don't know. Take a look at Arkansas-- no stay-at-home orders and they've had very low rates. Is that because no one wants to go to Arkansas? Maybe-- but they *did* have cases. So the Virus was/is there. But it's not being as impactful as places like NYC. Is it due to population density? The air in the Ozarks? We just don't know.

The way we will know is to deliberately and methodically ease restrictions *if the risk seems to be low enough* -- and be willing to step back if necessary.

As usually happens, the extremes on both ends of the spectrum are probably wrong -- the real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

So true. I mean, I definitely think it's because no one goes to Arkansas ;-)

The virus is everywhere. Population density seems to have an impact as does climate. We can't go from 0 to 100 one day. We've got to gradually roll it back and understand what works and doesn't work.

If everything about sunlight/heat is true and it starts to kill off the virus and cases are stagnant or the increase declines then that would be a good sign (not so good for Fall/Winter though). If the cases start to increase (in terms of rate) and more people are going to the hospital, then we will quickly see things roll back (I think the information about heat/humidity aren't 100% accurate though and I think we will see this happen over the summer).

 

[GoofGoof]

I fully understand why. Georgia, for example, has been on a downward trend; hospitals are not overly impacted any longer. Same with Tennessee. The whole reason for the closure was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. That appears to no longer be an issue. The authorities believe and expect an uptick in cases, some of which may require hospitalization, however they also believe that the current healthcare system can handle that new load. Given that 92% of deaths/serious cases are in people over 55, they've kept (or added) certain restrictions for that age cohort to help ensure they're not placed at additional risk.

I half agree. GA was a mess. Poorly thought out, no logic in what opened when, no lead time for businesses and local first responders to adjust. No communication from the state to the local levels. Perfect example of what not to do. TN seems to have a much better approach. Same with FL.

 

[larryz]

Not all medical professionals have the same credentials. Your local doctor had about 3-4 months of courses in epidemiology and virology during their first two years in medical school and since then has focused on treating patients, which rarely involves those subjects even if they practice in specialties that treat those issues.

That might not seem true but here’s the truth, when you are treating a patient it doesn’t matter how they got the disease, they have it and now you need to “fix it” other then making sure you are wearing the proper PPE (so you don’t get it) and warning family members to be evaluated if they get similar symptoms.

Then you have people (some of whom are PhDs) who devote their entire life to studying Public health, epidemiology and virology, those are the experts you need to listen to, your community health care provider knows only enough to be dangerous, to use a military analogy, community doctors are 2nd lieutenants, the experts are generals. The Lieutenants May have a good idea of what’s happening on the front line but are too deep in the nitty gritty to give you a proper opinion on the overarching strategy and if it’s working.

Signed a person on the front lines who knows his opinion on this whole affair isn’t informed enough and thus defers to those experts.

Wow. Don't send a copy of your post to your family doctor.

 

[bdearl41]

I’ve been more a reader lately than poster but all this arguing leaves out a major issue. Once places reopen, and they will, each person has a choice on where they go. If you or someone doesn’t feel comfortable at a place, don’t go. If you do, then go.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Is that map counting total cases, new cases or active cases? Depending on the answer it leads to a different interpretation.

In general, in some of these places, the virus isn't spreading there now, it's just being detected now by increased testing.

It's confirmed cases, but we're still on the rise. I'm closely watching the numbers, too - about 4,000 new cases between yesterday and today.
Confirmed: 1,161,805
Still active: 943,495
Recovered: 180,303
Died: 67,798

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[GoofGoof]

Exactly. There is way too much about this that we just don't know. Take a look at Arkansas-- no stay-at-home orders and they've had very low rates. Is that because no one wants to go to Arkansas? Maybe-- but they *did* have cases. So the Virus was/is there. But it's not being as impactful as places like NYC. Is it due to population density? The air in the Ozarks? We just don't know.

The way we will know is to deliberately and methodically ease restrictions *if the risk seems to be low enough* -- and be willing to step back if necessary.

As usually happens, the extremes on both ends of the spectrum are probably wrong -- the real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

In defense of Arkansas (never been there but heard its actually nice ) it’s not like they just continued business as usual despite looking at a serious public health situation. They closed schools for the year and large public events like sports were cancelled. They didn’t go full stay at home but that doesn’t mean lots of people didn’t still pull back and stay home voluntarily. Won’t be surprised if the amount of moving around there wasn‘t similar to state with mandatory orders.

yes, the right answer is in the middle

 

[bdearl41]

Exactly. There is way too much about this that we just don't know. Take a look at Arkansas-- no stay-at-home orders and they've had very low rates. Is that because no one wants to go to Arkansas? Maybe-- but they *did* have cases. So the Virus was/is there. But it's not being as impactful as places like NYC. Is it due to population density? The air in the Ozarks? We just don't know.

The way we will know is to deliberately and methodically ease restrictions *if the risk seems to be low enough* -- and be willing to step back if necessary.

As usually happens, the extremes on both ends of the spectrum are probably wrong -- the real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

This a million times. Those scared to leave their house for three years and those wanting to go to an NFL game tomorrow both have zero clue what is actually happening

 

[robhedin]

I'm watching the virus and how it's heading west and spreading across America. When the red on this map is dwindling instead of increasing, then I'll feel a bit more safe, thanks.
View attachment 468294

That looks like the Cumulative Confirmed Cases map from JHU ( here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ); if that's the case, you'll never see that red begin dwindling since it's cumulative. The "incidents rate" or "hospitalization rate" are probably better metrics for safety.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

That looks like the Cumulative Confirmed Cases map from JHU ( here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ); if that's the case, you'll never see that red begin dwindling since it's cumulative. The "incidents rate" or "hospitalization rate" are probably better metrics for safety.

Yep. I realized that after I posted.
I check all the numbers daily though, too. I don't really pay all that much attention to the map except to see how the virus is traveling.

 

[Patcheslee]

Read on another forum: Six Flags will require pre-reservations for visits. Unknown exact system or limits at this time. Good thing I have Disney FP experience lol

 

[bdearl41]

Yep. I realized that after I posted.
I check all the numbers daily though, too. I don't really pay all that much attention to the map except to see how the virus is traveling.

This is the problem and I’m not picking on you but really everyone in general. We have no clue how widespread or deadly this is. No one does. Any sort of statistics are deeply flawed at this time. That’s what makes reopening so tricky. All the data goes against other data. We gotta get ourselves healthy. We do that and we really help everyone out. Don’t at me with a death rate either. You know I’m your heart it’s inaccurate.

 

[WDW Pro]

I half agree. GA was a mess. Poorly thought out, no logic in what opened when, no lead time for businesses and local first responders to adjust. No communication from the state to the local levels. Perfect example of what not to do. TN seems to have a much better approach. Same with FL.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

This is the problem and I’m not picking on you but really everyone in general. We have no clue how widespread or deadly this is. No one does. Any sort of statistics are deeply flawed at this time. That’s what makes reopening so tricky. All the data goes against other data. We gotta get ourselves healthy. We do that and we really help everyone out. Don’t at me with a death rate either. You know I’m your heart it’s inaccurate.

We really don't. Because we're not testing enough, and because of asymptomatic spread, and because some never even show symptoms at all. The projections are nice, but they're just extrapolations and estimates. Studies are great, but until they're including thousands of people and there are other studies to validate them, they're just data that doesn't mean a ton.

ETA: I'm going on the assumption that all our numbers are low simply because of the factors I mention above.

 

[carolina_yankee]

As a local anecdote:

I work with a lot of state employees and Murphy laid a trap: they lifted the park ban and sent out spotters to watch the reactions from various departments...

Results were “not good”

Except that Murphy said he was pretty pleased with the results. I saw that as a positive that at least people in one state known for heavily populating WDW might actually roll with Disney’s rules quite nicely.

 

[Timmay]

I'm watching the virus and how it's heading west and spreading across America. When the numbers start declining instead of increasing, then I'll feel a bit more safe, thanks.
View attachment 468294

That map doesn’t show it “heading west “ any more than this map shows light “heading west.”
They both show us the same thing. Highly populated areas.