Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[surfsupdon]

Hopefully more

That makes me happy to read, Steve. I had to sift through a lot of bickering and some rubbish to find your quote, but I am still optimistic for good news coming out of Florida THIS WEEK!

Here at the Jersey Shore, our beaches were open and social distancing allowed us to have a great time. I live next door to a State Park on a barrier island, and was pleased that the guidelines were being followed.

 

[JohnnyAmerican]

Hey, everyone remember when Disneyland WASN'T closed when measles may have been active in the park? I picked up Strep because I was touching my face in the parks at DisneyWorld. Was your hands and don't touch your face...we'll be okay. Open the parks

 

[GoofGoof]

Hey, everyone remember when Disneyland WASN'T closed when measles may have been active in the park? I picked up Strep because I was touching my face in the parks at DisneyWorld. Was your hands and don't touch your face...we'll be okay. Open the parks

I don’t know if you heard, but they have a vaccine for measles now. If you get both doses it’s something like 97% effective. Over 90% of the population in the US has been vaccinated.

 

[icc2515]

He did say something interesting that reflects also on WDW. He was asked if casinos would open to local residents only. He checked with a legal person who said that wouldn’t be legal. You’re either open to everyone or you’re open to no one. I’m assuming that applies across the board.

Casinos and theme parks have very different regulations. For legal reasons casinos have to be open to all to avoid situations that may lead to cheating. It's called open gaming law. Most vegas casinos only allow guests in their pool areas, but if there are games out there all you have to do it tell the guard that you want to gamble at the pool and they have to let you in or risk losing their gaming license.

 

[Calmdownnow]

Things here in Texas reopened on Friday, we did not partake. We’ve been in lockdown mode since early March. We go to the grocery store when we need to. I go to the doctor once a week. We wear masks when we go (also when getting gas).

Based on your comments, you should not leave the house anytime soon.

CDC has presented a document to WH saying that with the relaxation of social distancing requirements, modelling suggests that the daily death toll will rise to 3,000 per day by the end of June. The number of reported infections is expected to rise from 25,000 per day now, to 200,000 per day by June 30th. Good luck to anyone who feels that they will risk relaxing social distancing at this time because there is a strong statistical chance that you are going to end up on the wrong end of the equation.

 

[GoofGoof]

Another data point for consideration in the WDW re-opening saga: my sister-in-law owns a hair salon in Georgia. She opened last Friday. They are required to take client temps and ask the screening questions, among other safety measures. Seems the touchless thermometer they are using is NOT reliable when the outside temp is high, or the person recently was outside in the heat. The thermometer sometimes gives readings that are too high. My SIL has to suggest clients sit in car with AC running. They are also looking at adding a temp shade area in the front of the store to help get more accurate readings. If a hair salon in Georgia with temps still in low 80s is having issues, imagine WDW in the 90s!

I personally think the temp check is probably not the best indicator of safety, but if they are doing it anyway, thinking outside the box a little, this may be a good reason to do the temp checks at the resorts. Similar to how they handle monorail bag checks now at the resorts. Just give guests a ticket to board the bus or monorail to show they have been checked. Another reason for this is suppose someone really is sick and they get to the front gate of a park and show a fever. They have now infected a whole bus load of people getting to the park and more on their way back. Not very safe. For off property guests it would have to be outside. Maybe a cooling station or at least some shade will help. Sounds like a train wreck waiting to happen and another good reason to not open up until after this type of stuff is no longer needed.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

CDC has presented a document to WH saying that with the relaxation of social distancing requirements, modelling suggests that the daily death toll will rise to 3,000 per day by the end of June. The number of reported infections is expected to rise from 25,000 per day now, to 200,000 per day by June 30th. Good luck to anyone who feels that they will risk relaxing social distancing at this time because there is a strong statistical chance that you are going to end up on the wrong end of the equation.

1) By the beginning of June, not the end.
2) If we do reach 200K a day, it would take 16 days to infect 1% of the population (and what is the split between symptomatic and asymptomatic?), so I would say not a strong statistical chance you're going to end up on the wrong end of the equation
3) These are projections. We'll see where the real numbers are (since you're so concerned about my travels, I plan on doing the same thing which I've said multiple times in response to you). They may be higher, they may be lower. If they're at 200K cases/day or higher, I would imagine states will return to lockdown status.

 

[arich35]

Hey, everyone remember when Disneyland WASN'T closed when measles may have been active in the park? I picked up Strep because I was touching my face in the parks at DisneyWorld. Was your hands and don't touch your face...we'll be okay. Open the parks

How could you possibly know this is the exact reason why you got strep?

 

[zengoth]

In Disney world?

It frankly was never a working example unless is was like a weekend pilot program...

Two groups that won’t get it back to profitability:
1. Orlando residents (not enough green, jellybean)
2. Florida residents - Large, but finnicky for a lot of reasons.

Open is gonna have to be “open” for Disney to budge.

I never thought WDW was going to be checking drivers licenses if they opened for "locals only"; i just figured it was a park opening without any of the hotels on property taking in guests. If someone decided to drive in from Georgia and slept in their cars, i'm sure they'd be able to get in (if they got to the park before capacity).

 

[Trentster05]

Pays $800/night for accommodations but beverage charges are the last... paper straw. (I'm feeling so nostalgic, forgive me).

Paper Straw. That is perfect.

 

[Trentster05]

I saw a few pages back where the average hotel rate is around $60 per night, but will there be any adjustment or decrease in Disney Resort hotel rates or is the demand still going to be high that rates will stay like normal?

 

[Calmdownnow]

1) By the beginning of June, not the end.
2) If we do reach 200K a day, it would take 16 days to infect 1% of the population (and what is the split between symptomatic and asymptomatic?), so I would say not a strong statistical chance you're going to end up on the wrong end of the equation
3) These are projections. We'll see where the real numbers are (since you're so concerned about my travels, I plan on doing the same thing which I've said multiple times in response to you). They may be higher, they may be lower. If they're at 200K cases/day or higher, I would imagine states will return to lockdown status.

1) You get to large numbers of infections and deaths at the end of June by large numbers of people being infected in early June.
2) There are studies that show as many as 43% of positive cases may be asymptomatic but disease spreading at point of testing (Iceland study).
3) yes these are projections and we all hope that they will be estimates that can be mitigated by changes in behavior.
3b) Data lags virus transmission, so I would just urge you to be cautious about travel plans when they involve your older nearest and dearest because the information you may be using to risk-access will be at least 3 weeks out of date -- hence the policy-making reliance on modeling and projections.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

1) You get to large numbers of infections and deaths at the end of June by large numbers of people being infected in early June.
2) There are studies that show as many as 43% of positive cases may be asymptomatic but disease spreading at point of testing (Iceland study).
3) yes these are projections and we all hope that they will be estimates that can be mitigated by changes in behavior.
3b) Data lags virus transmission, so I would just urge you to be cautious about travel plans when they involve your older nearest and dearest because the information you may be using to risk-access will be at least 3 weeks out of date -- hence the policy-making reliance on modeling and projections.

1) Potentially. They're not saying what we will see at the end of June is my point (and these are models that may be accurate or wrong, as time goes on, we can review the data).
2) Appreciate it. We would be driving + booking stays that are cancellable so we can back out pretty easily IF things are worsening in July. Based on data as it's available.

 

[Nubs70]

Another data point for consideration in the WDW re-opening saga: my sister-in-law owns a hair salon in Georgia. She opened last Friday. They are required to take client temps and ask the screening questions, among other safety measures. Seems the touchless thermometer they are using is NOT reliable when the outside temp is high, or the person recently was outside in the heat. The thermometer sometimes gives readings that are too high. My SIL has to suggest clients sit in car with AC running. They are also looking at adding a temp shade area in the front of the store to help get more accurate readings. If a hair salon in Georgia with temps still in low 80s is having issues, imagine WDW in the 90s!

IR thermometers only read surface temperature not internal. This will be an issue in Florida summer days.

 

[Patcheslee]

I saw a few pages back where the average hotel rate is around $60 per night, but will there be any adjustment or decrease in Disney Resort hotel rates or is the demand still going to be high that rates will stay like normal?

IMO they might stay the same because some many are rebooking

I got a note about summer bible camp for two of my boys. They're going to move it to online only. My wife laughed and decided to pull them out of it. More so because our experience with online-only has been middling at best and she wasn't willing to pay for another substandard experience.

Coworker is a Boy Scout leader, he's been informed all camping and summer camps have been canceled for this year. (Indiana)

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

IMO they might stay the same because everyone i

Coworker is a Boy Scout leader, he's been informed all camping and summer camps have been canceled for this year. (Indiana)

Yeah, my wife is part of the council here as well. That's looking the same down here as well.

Summer camps would've been a good way to start figuring out how we get kids back to school, but as summer camps are cancelled (and if the numbers increase as being suggested through June), it definitely makes it difficult to see a path to school starting back up in August/September.

 

[lilypgirl]

This was posted on the other board has some good info in it especially on why theme parks are different from mass gatherings.

https://www.iaapa.org/sites/default/files/2020-05/IAAPA_COVID-19_ReopeningGuidance_rev1_final.pdf

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

CDC has presented a document to WH saying that with the relaxation of social distancing requirements, modelling suggests that the daily death toll will rise to 3,000 per day by the end of June. The number of reported infections is expected to rise from 25,000 per day now, to 200,000 per day by June 30th. Good luck to anyone who feels that they will risk relaxing social distancing at this time because there is a strong statistical chance that you are going to end up on the wrong end of the equation.

That document (linked here) shows a wide range of potential outcomes, with daily deaths on June 1 anywhere between 150 and 20,000. It doesn't state the model used, or the methodology. Apparently it was not intended for public release.

 

[xdan0920]

That document (linked here) shows a wide range of potential outcomes, with daily deaths on June 1 anywhere between 150 and 20,000. It doesn't state the model used, or the methodology. Apparently it was not intended for public release.

So it’s nonsense.

 

[lilypgirl]

Yeah, my wife is part of the council here as well. That's looking the same down here as well.

Summer camps would've been a good way to start figuring out how we get kids back to school, but as summer camps are cancelled (and if the numbers increase as being suggested through June), it definitely makes it difficult to see a path to school starting back up in August/September.

This guy seems to have a path forward for that.
https://abc3340.com/news/local/stat...5LscBV1VHAkWzx7qImNLovfkP5uq2-cvcEhmc0zgl_lO4