Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So we’re spinning this as a smash?

Ok…players gonna play

 

[Disney Analyst]

Random question.

Before you could book all your movies online, with reserved seating... you would go to the theatre, and use a self serve kiosk or go to the box office to buy a ticket, usually a bit before the movie you wanted to attend.

So in a situation like Avatar, which very well could be selling out all weekend, back in the day you'd go to the theatre, find out its sold out, curse yourself for not coming earlier, and possibly decide to attend another film since you are already there. This would usually benefit other films (like Black Panther this weekend, which still has legs going into the holiday season).

So my question is, how much do you think OTHER movies benefit from a HUGE film opening, and do you think they still benefit in the same way as they may have in the before times? Could Black Panther have a healthy weekend from those who don't get into Avatar, or is booking in advance ending that practice?

 

[TP2000]

Box Office numbers are in from almost all overseas markets for this past weekend. (Except Croatia and Romania, those lazy bums.) Wakanda Forever just crested $768 Million in global box office as of yesterday, creating an $18 Million profit for Burbank.

Avatar 2 begins opening in major Western European and Asian markets tomorrow, meaning this was the last weekend that Wakanda had the foreign theaters all to itself as the Big American Hollywood Movie to see. I think it's going to be a quick box office descent for Wakanda Forever globally from here on out.

 

[TP2000]

Random question.

And a fun question at that!

So my question is, how much do you think OTHER movies benefit from a HUGE film opening, and do you think they still benefit in the same way as they may have in the before times? Could Black Panther have a healthy weekend from those who don't get into Avatar, or is booking in advance ending that practice?

I think pre-booking online being so common now doesn't help other movies much at all. If the first choice movie is already booked out, as will be likely for Avatar in many places the first weekend, people go to their second choice entertainment option not their second choice movie option. Other options get thrown into the mix for entertainment time and dollars, since they are no longer physically standing in front of a box office window with a "Avatar Sold Out" sign staring them in the face.

There are so many entertainment options for Americans now, it's mind boggling. If Avatar 2 is sold out, people have lots of other stuff to choose from besides the less popular movie that still has tickets left.

Also, Avatar appears to be a huge thing of interest for its opening weekend. I (rather shockingly by this point) remember quite vividly when I saw Star Wars at the Cinerama theater in downtown Seattle in mid-summer 1977. It had been out for a month or so and everyone was talking about it. We waited on the sidewalk in a long line for a ticket to a showing that was 4 hours away, so we went up the street and camped out in the lobby bar of the Westin Hotel alongside the monorail tracks. And we waited.

What we did not do is decide to walk two blocks over and go see Annie Hall or The Goodbye Girl instead.

We were there specifically for Star Wars! Avatar 2 seems to be in that same category for people.

 

[Disney Analyst]

And a fun question at that!



I think pre-booking online being so common now doesn't help other movies much at all. If the first choice movie is already booked out, as will be likely for Avatar in many places the first weekend, people go to their second choice entertainment option not their second choice movie option. Other options get thrown into the mix for entertainment time and dollars, since they are no longer physically standing in front of a box office window with a "Avatar Sold Out" sign staring them in the face.

There are so many entertainment options for Americans now, it's mind boggling. If Avatar 2 is sold out, people have lots of other stuff to choose from besides the less popular movie that still has tickets left.

Also, Avatar appears to be a huge thing of interest for its opening weekend. I (rather shockingly by this point) remember quite vividly when I saw Star Wars at the Cinerama theater in downtown Seattle in mid-summer 1977. It had been out for a month or so and everyone was talking about it. We waited on the sidewalk in a long line for a ticket to a showing that was 4 hours away, so we went up the street and camped out in the lobby bar of the Westin Hotel alongside the monorail tracks. And we waited.

What we did not do is decide to walk two blocks over and go see Annie Hall or The Goodbye Girl instead.

We were there specifically for Star Wars! Avatar 2 seems to be in that same category for people.

It's definitely an intriguing change. I recall standing in line for opening day of Harry Potter films.

 

[Jedijax719]

The success for this film will be the fact that it was mostly well regarded and considered well made. However, finishing just a tad over Captain Marvel domestic (will end up around $435 m domestic) and around $800 million WW is not a very good look. But we KNOW that people cannot handle more than one blockbuster at a time it seems. So once the marketing machine began to turn for Avatar2, BPWF was always going to be doomed. If it were switched, we would see different results. Avatar2 wouldn't have made as low as BPWF in November and BPWF would not have made as much as Avatar2 will make if released in December, but we'd see different results nevertheless.

As far as profits go, that's for the executives and business folks to deal with. Us "normal" people just look at numbers.

 

[spacemt354]

However, finishing just a tad over Captain Marvel domestic (will end up around $435 m domestic) and around $800 million WW is not a very good look.

How so?

It has already passed Captain America: Civil War domestically for comparison and is the 11th out of 30 MCU films to be over $400 million domestic. It made a profit for the studio as well after the film lost its lead actor and had to start from scratch.

It wasn't an Avengers movie or crossover film, and does not have the luxury Captain Marvel had of being the lead-in to the biggest comic book film of all time.

I think it did pretty well.

 

[Jedijax719]

How so?

It has already passed Captain America: Civil War domestically for comparison and is the 11th out of 30 MCU films to be over $400 million domestic. It made a profit for the studio as well after the film lost its lead actor and had to start from scratch.

It wasn't an Avengers movie or crossover film, and does not have the luxury Captain Marvel had of being the lead-in to the biggest comic book film of all time.

I think it did pretty well.

How so what? How will it get just over Captain Marvel or how is that not a great look?

1. If it hits $435 million domestic, it will be only $8 million above CM. It will be well below it WW.
2. Not a great look because I don't think anyone reasonably predicted it would be in that range. I think pretty much all projections and predictions had it even over Age of Ultron (with maybe a few hold out exceptions early on without data).

 

[spacemt354]

How so what? How will it get just over Captain Marvel or how is that not a great look?

1. If it hits $435 million domestic, it will be only $8 million above CM. It will be well below it WW.
2. Not a great look because I don't think anyone reasonably predicted it would be in that range. I think pretty much all projections and predictions had it even over Age of Ultron (with maybe a few hold out exceptions early on without data).

How so that it's not a great look. I think that's incorrect.

In my opinion-- any projection that had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a solo sequel without many MCU tie-ins and without its former main character) outperform an Avengers sequel ...was setting themselves up for disappointment.

You're comparing the film to some of the most successful domestic box office films ever.

Try comparing it to Black Adam, a spin-off sequel which bombed at the box office, or the lukewarm reception to some of the other Phase 4 films/shows, and I think BP:WF is a great success.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box Office numbers are in from almost all overseas markets for this past weekend. (Except Croatia and Romania, those lazy bums.) Wakanda Forever just crested $768 Million in global box office as of yesterday, creating an $18 Million profit for Burbank.

Avatar 2 begins opening in major Western European and Asian markets tomorrow, meaning this was the last weekend that Wakanda had the foreign theaters all to itself as the Big American Hollywood Movie to see. I think it's going to be a quick box office descent for Wakanda Forever globally from here on out.

View attachment 685128

…whatever you do…don’t suggest that marvel is overextended or in decline…

…pitchforks and torches

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How so that it's not a great look. I think that's incorrect.

In my opinion-- any projection that had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a solo sequel without many MCU tie-ins and without its former main character) outperform an Avengers sequel ...was setting themselves up for disappointment.

You're comparing the film to some of the most successful domestic box office films ever.

Try comparing it to Black Adam, a spin-off sequel which bombed at the box office, or the lukewarm reception to some of the other Phase 4 films/shows, and I think BP:WF is a great success.

It’s not gonna lose money…

But the suggestion it would do $1.5 without boseman - and there was ALOT of that going around - was never realistic.

Part is the global climate…part the disruption to the film…part that the MCU movies are dragging each other down - as they once lifted them…

But the biggest chunk is sycophancia…

Dis does no wrong…

You’ll find the same people defending 8 & 9 in the history of the threads…
…what peaches those turned out to be…

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

But the suggestion it would do $1.5 without boseman - and there was ALOT of that going around - was never realistic.

Were people really expecting this to top the first movie? That would be shocking for a sequel, especially one without its lead character.

My guess was 25-33% lower than Black Panther, that would be around $900 million to a billion, not sure it’ll quite get there but it’s in the ballpark.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Were people really expecting this to top the first movie? That would be shocking for a sequel, especially one without its lead character.

My guess was 25-33% lower than Black Panther, that would be around $900 million to a billion, not sure it’ll quite get there but it’s in the ballpark.

If you have some time to kill…look around this neighborhood…the arrogance was thick

 

[Disney Irish]

Were people really expecting this to top the first movie? That would be shocking for a sequel, especially one without its lead character.

My guess was 25-33% lower than Black Panther, that would be around $900 million to a billion, not sure it’ll quite get there but it’s in the ballpark.

Yes, some of us thought it had a potential to beat the first one based on the initial reactions to the trailers. Whether some thought that unrealistic or not well they are entitled to that opinion just as those that thought it could potentially beat the first one.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, some of us thought it had a potential to beat the first one based on the initial reactions to the trailers. Whether some thought that unrealistic or not well they are entitled to that opinion just as those that thought it could potentially beat the first one.

The lack of boseman made it a tough hill to climb…but also there is a slowing of momentum with marvel…that was bound to happen at some point.

 

[LSLS]

The lack of boseman made it a tough hill to climb…but also there is a slowing of momentum with marvel…that was bound to happen at some point.

That and being the final movie 2.5 months before Infinity War. I really think that gets overlooked with the original Black Panther movie a lot.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That and being the final movie 2.5 months before Infinity War. I really think that gets overlooked with the original Black Panther movie a lot.

Well they ended up “rolling over” Downey, evans, boseman (not intentional) and Johansson…

The idea that you can do that and go more out to the fringes without a blip doesn’t really make sense now…nor did it then. Virus or not.

There have been super hero movies franchises - mostly DC - in the past that were huge…then they fade. It’s ebb and flow.

The 1989 Batman was ridiculously big…in a summer that had 3 gigantic sequels out…
But it faded. Same with the character after the nolan movies. Superman lost its steam in the 80’s.

These things rotate.

 

[Disney Irish]

The lack of boseman made it a tough hill to climb…but also there is a slowing of momentum with marvel…that was bound to happen at some point.

I agree it was a tough hill to climb with not just Boseman gone but also world events, but I thought it was possible. And had all this happened pre-2020 (even with Boseman gone) its possible it could have really happened.

I still don't agree there is an overall "slowing momentum with Marvel". We saw that this year alone that the MCU added $4.4B in box office across only 4 movies. Sure not every movie is breaking the box office. And yes I will say that some of the individual movies have performed lower post End Game than what at least I expected, but I don't see that as slowing. So to me that doesn't mean that the overall MCU is on a downward trend, at least currently. Just Spider-Man:NWH alone shows that when there is a MCU movie that is on an Avengers level type film that people show up.

To me what I see happening overall is that with the transition to streaming some of the public has decided that not every MCU film needs to be seen in theaters. And yes some in the public have even decided that not every MCU film needs to be seen at all, so they pop in and out as they wish. Does that equate to an overall slowing or "super hero fatigue" (something I've been hearing for over a decade), currently I say no.

Phase 5 is going to make it clear what Phase 4 was building leading into the 2 Avenger movies coming in Phase 6. The MCU works best when there is a "big bad" that everyone can get behind the "heros" defeating. That is going to become clear starting with Quantumania when Kang is more widely known as that "big bad".

So we'll see what happens over the next couple years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Question: who is in the avengers?

 

[Mr Ferret 75]

Question: who is in the avengers?

Who hasn't been in the avengers.
Plenty of combos/characters to pull from the comics