Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

[TP2000]

Wakanda Forever did it! This last weekend before Avatar takes over, Wakanda Forever has just crossed the $750 Million threshold at the Global Box Office. It got pushed over the top, quite appropriately, by the United States box office results that just came in for this weekend which now stand at $409 Million.

Which brings the total as of Sunday afternoon Burbank time, to $767 Million globally. Using the Triple The Production Budget To Break Even formula with its $250 Million production budget (?!?), Wakanda Forever just broke even this weekend and is now sending some profit to the Marvel account at the Burbank branch of Bank of America.

Burbank really needed this big hit right now from at least one of its flagship studios, so the celebration is well deserved. In my family, for at least the last 30 years, whenever we celebrate a birthday or college graduation or just having S'mores all together at the beach house, we always play one of our favorite fun songs; Kool & The Gang with their Late Disco Era megahit "Celebration!" It's sort of a family anthem with us.

So I send this to the team at Marvel Studios for breaking the much needed $750 Million mark, and also am sending this out to all the Wakanda fans out there! Bravo! Now it's time to celebrate!



P.S. I'm chair dancing to this right now.

 

[Disney Analyst]

And some interesting details from Box Office Mojo:

As we await the opening of Avatar: The Way of Water, the weekend’s box office was once again terrible, just narrowly avoiding being the year’s worst. With nothing new opening wide, the overall gross from all films declined 33% from last weekend for a cume of $35.5 million, the second worst of the year after January 28-30’s $34.9 million cume. Studios are understandably wary of opening ahead of the sequel to the world’s highest grossing film of all time, but the box office is suffering as a result, with another weekend that would have been the worst in decades before the pandemic.

The top five was entirely unchanged from last weekend. Unsurprisingly, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever came in first, tying with its predecessor for a total of five number one weekends. The sequel was down 37% for an $11.1 million weekend, bringing its cume to $410 million. This puts it right on the verge of crossing Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $411 million total, which will make it the second highest grossing film of the year thus far and the eighth-highest grosser in the MCU. The global cume is now at $768 million.

‘Wakanda Forever’ Tops For 5th Time In Year’s 2nd Worst Weekend

www.boxofficemojo.com

In summary:

- Second worst weekend of the year.
- BP:WF is almost the 8th highest grossing MCU film domestically. And almost the second highest grossing film of 2022. Should beat Dr. Strange shortly.

Aka: BP:WF is a huge success, given the state of the 2022 box office.

Now we await Avatar.

 

[TP2000]

Have to say that while some will argue either way as to whether BPWF is big or not, there's one thing that people keep forgetting.

Wakanda Forever was certainly a big hit with audiences for the past month. But with a massive production budget of $250 Million (were those catered lunches worth it?), the question is "Was it big enough?" The financial data coming in shows that it was just barely big enough.

Sure, this movie had its obstacles and sure, Avatar 2 is stealing hype. But if BPWF was THE Christmas release in any given year, we'd be signing a VERY different tune in terms of box office results.

I'm a bit confused by this. Wakanda Forever opened in 4,396 theaters back on November 11th, heading into the Veteran's Day holiday weekend. It was nowhere near Christmas, and Avatar tickets weren't available. Avatar doesn't open until next Friday, December 16th, a full five weeks after Wakanda opened in the US.

Knowing that, are you saying that people purposely held back from purchasing Wakanda Forever tickets for the past five weeks because they were waiting to spend their money on Avatar?

Here's some data and comparisons to how Wakanda Forever performed this fall in theaters. It had "Poor Legs" according to industry metrics and historical data...

And it noticeably under-performed its first installment back in 2018 at the domestic box office, adjusted for today's rising inflation.

If anything, I think Burbank's messy streaming strategy with Disney+ deserves a big dollop of blame for Wakanda's lower financial returns compared to the original Black Panther just 4 years ago. But Avatar 2? I don't see that as a big driver of results here with this Marvel offering.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Californian Elitist]

Angela Bassett has made history by being the first actor to be nominated for an acting Golden Globe award for an MCU role.

Marvel Studios Earns First-Ever Golden Globes Acting Award Nom for MCU Movie

Marvel Studios received an acting nomination for the 2023 Golden Globes, marking a historic moment for the MCU.

thedirect.com

 

[Disney Analyst]

Angela Bassett has made history by being the first actor to be nominated for an acting Golden Globe award for an MCU role.

Marvel Studios Earns First-Ever Golden Globes Acting Award Nom for MCU Movie

Marvel Studios received an acting nomination for the 2023 Golden Globes, marking a historic moment for the MCU.

thedirect.com

YAY - Congrats Angela!

 

[Phroobar]

Disney lets strive for mediocracy. You all know it isn't a good thing that is broken even.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So we’re spinning this as a smash?

Ok…players gonna play

 

[Disney Analyst]

Random question.

Before you could book all your movies online, with reserved seating... you would go to the theatre, and use a self serve kiosk or go to the box office to buy a ticket, usually a bit before the movie you wanted to attend.

So in a situation like Avatar, which very well could be selling out all weekend, back in the day you'd go to the theatre, find out its sold out, curse yourself for not coming earlier, and possibly decide to attend another film since you are already there. This would usually benefit other films (like Black Panther this weekend, which still has legs going into the holiday season).

So my question is, how much do you think OTHER movies benefit from a HUGE film opening, and do you think they still benefit in the same way as they may have in the before times? Could Black Panther have a healthy weekend from those who don't get into Avatar, or is booking in advance ending that practice?

 

[TP2000]

Box Office numbers are in from almost all overseas markets for this past weekend. (Except Croatia and Romania, those lazy bums.) Wakanda Forever just crested $768 Million in global box office as of yesterday, creating an $18 Million profit for Burbank.

Avatar 2 begins opening in major Western European and Asian markets tomorrow, meaning this was the last weekend that Wakanda had the foreign theaters all to itself as the Big American Hollywood Movie to see. I think it's going to be a quick box office descent for Wakanda Forever globally from here on out.

 

[TP2000]

Random question.

And a fun question at that!

So my question is, how much do you think OTHER movies benefit from a HUGE film opening, and do you think they still benefit in the same way as they may have in the before times? Could Black Panther have a healthy weekend from those who don't get into Avatar, or is booking in advance ending that practice?

I think pre-booking online being so common now doesn't help other movies much at all. If the first choice movie is already booked out, as will be likely for Avatar in many places the first weekend, people go to their second choice entertainment option not their second choice movie option. Other options get thrown into the mix for entertainment time and dollars, since they are no longer physically standing in front of a box office window with a "Avatar Sold Out" sign staring them in the face.

There are so many entertainment options for Americans now, it's mind boggling. If Avatar 2 is sold out, people have lots of other stuff to choose from besides the less popular movie that still has tickets left.

Also, Avatar appears to be a huge thing of interest for its opening weekend. I (rather shockingly by this point) remember quite vividly when I saw Star Wars at the Cinerama theater in downtown Seattle in mid-summer 1977. It had been out for a month or so and everyone was talking about it. We waited on the sidewalk in a long line for a ticket to a showing that was 4 hours away, so we went up the street and camped out in the lobby bar of the Westin Hotel alongside the monorail tracks. And we waited.

What we did not do is decide to walk two blocks over and go see Annie Hall or The Goodbye Girl instead.

We were there specifically for Star Wars! Avatar 2 seems to be in that same category for people.

 

[Disney Analyst]

And a fun question at that!



I think pre-booking online being so common now doesn't help other movies much at all. If the first choice movie is already booked out, as will be likely for Avatar in many places the first weekend, people go to their second choice entertainment option not their second choice movie option. Other options get thrown into the mix for entertainment time and dollars, since they are no longer physically standing in front of a box office window with a "Avatar Sold Out" sign staring them in the face.

There are so many entertainment options for Americans now, it's mind boggling. If Avatar 2 is sold out, people have lots of other stuff to choose from besides the less popular movie that still has tickets left.

Also, Avatar appears to be a huge thing of interest for its opening weekend. I (rather shockingly by this point) remember quite vividly when I saw Star Wars at the Cinerama theater in downtown Seattle in mid-summer 1977. It had been out for a month or so and everyone was talking about it. We waited on the sidewalk in a long line for a ticket to a showing that was 4 hours away, so we went up the street and camped out in the lobby bar of the Westin Hotel alongside the monorail tracks. And we waited.

What we did not do is decide to walk two blocks over and go see Annie Hall or The Goodbye Girl instead.

We were there specifically for Star Wars! Avatar 2 seems to be in that same category for people.

It's definitely an intriguing change. I recall standing in line for opening day of Harry Potter films.

 

[Jedijax719]

The success for this film will be the fact that it was mostly well regarded and considered well made. However, finishing just a tad over Captain Marvel domestic (will end up around $435 m domestic) and around $800 million WW is not a very good look. But we KNOW that people cannot handle more than one blockbuster at a time it seems. So once the marketing machine began to turn for Avatar2, BPWF was always going to be doomed. If it were switched, we would see different results. Avatar2 wouldn't have made as low as BPWF in November and BPWF would not have made as much as Avatar2 will make if released in December, but we'd see different results nevertheless.

As far as profits go, that's for the executives and business folks to deal with. Us "normal" people just look at numbers.

 

[spacemt354]

However, finishing just a tad over Captain Marvel domestic (will end up around $435 m domestic) and around $800 million WW is not a very good look.

How so?

It has already passed Captain America: Civil War domestically for comparison and is the 11th out of 30 MCU films to be over $400 million domestic. It made a profit for the studio as well after the film lost its lead actor and had to start from scratch.

It wasn't an Avengers movie or crossover film, and does not have the luxury Captain Marvel had of being the lead-in to the biggest comic book film of all time.

I think it did pretty well.

 

[Jedijax719]

How so?

It has already passed Captain America: Civil War domestically for comparison and is the 11th out of 30 MCU films to be over $400 million domestic. It made a profit for the studio as well after the film lost its lead actor and had to start from scratch.

It wasn't an Avengers movie or crossover film, and does not have the luxury Captain Marvel had of being the lead-in to the biggest comic book film of all time.

I think it did pretty well.

How so what? How will it get just over Captain Marvel or how is that not a great look?

1. If it hits $435 million domestic, it will be only $8 million above CM. It will be well below it WW.
2. Not a great look because I don't think anyone reasonably predicted it would be in that range. I think pretty much all projections and predictions had it even over Age of Ultron (with maybe a few hold out exceptions early on without data).

 

[spacemt354]

How so what? How will it get just over Captain Marvel or how is that not a great look?

1. If it hits $435 million domestic, it will be only $8 million above CM. It will be well below it WW.
2. Not a great look because I don't think anyone reasonably predicted it would be in that range. I think pretty much all projections and predictions had it even over Age of Ultron (with maybe a few hold out exceptions early on without data).

How so that it's not a great look. I think that's incorrect.

In my opinion-- any projection that had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a solo sequel without many MCU tie-ins and without its former main character) outperform an Avengers sequel ...was setting themselves up for disappointment.

You're comparing the film to some of the most successful domestic box office films ever.

Try comparing it to Black Adam, a spin-off sequel which bombed at the box office, or the lukewarm reception to some of the other Phase 4 films/shows, and I think BP:WF is a great success.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box Office numbers are in from almost all overseas markets for this past weekend. (Except Croatia and Romania, those lazy bums.) Wakanda Forever just crested $768 Million in global box office as of yesterday, creating an $18 Million profit for Burbank.

Avatar 2 begins opening in major Western European and Asian markets tomorrow, meaning this was the last weekend that Wakanda had the foreign theaters all to itself as the Big American Hollywood Movie to see. I think it's going to be a quick box office descent for Wakanda Forever globally from here on out.

View attachment 685128

…whatever you do…don’t suggest that marvel is overextended or in decline…

…pitchforks and torches

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How so that it's not a great look. I think that's incorrect.

In my opinion-- any projection that had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a solo sequel without many MCU tie-ins and without its former main character) outperform an Avengers sequel ...was setting themselves up for disappointment.

You're comparing the film to some of the most successful domestic box office films ever.

Try comparing it to Black Adam, a spin-off sequel which bombed at the box office, or the lukewarm reception to some of the other Phase 4 films/shows, and I think BP:WF is a great success.

It’s not gonna lose money…

But the suggestion it would do $1.5 without boseman - and there was ALOT of that going around - was never realistic.

Part is the global climate…part the disruption to the film…part that the MCU movies are dragging each other down - as they once lifted them…

But the biggest chunk is sycophancia…

Dis does no wrong…

You’ll find the same people defending 8 & 9 in the history of the threads…
…what peaches those turned out to be…

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

But the suggestion it would do $1.5 without boseman - and there was ALOT of that going around - was never realistic.

Were people really expecting this to top the first movie? That would be shocking for a sequel, especially one without its lead character.

My guess was 25-33% lower than Black Panther, that would be around $900 million to a billion, not sure it’ll quite get there but it’s in the ballpark.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Were people really expecting this to top the first movie? That would be shocking for a sequel, especially one without its lead character.

My guess was 25-33% lower than Black Panther, that would be around $900 million to a billion, not sure it’ll quite get there but it’s in the ballpark.

If you have some time to kill…look around this neighborhood…the arrogance was thick

 

[Disney Irish]

Were people really expecting this to top the first movie? That would be shocking for a sequel, especially one without its lead character.

My guess was 25-33% lower than Black Panther, that would be around $900 million to a billion, not sure it’ll quite get there but it’s in the ballpark.

Yes, some of us thought it had a potential to beat the first one based on the initial reactions to the trailers. Whether some thought that unrealistic or not well they are entitled to that opinion just as those that thought it could potentially beat the first one.