The first film made twice the break even point at $1.3B.
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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Thread starter Lucky Rabbit
- Start date
spacemt354
Chili's
I believe Jedi is using domestic numbers (Approx 653 million for Jurassic World to approx 417 million for Fallen Kingdom) which is 64% of the original
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Yes domestic. For WW, there are too many factors to follow, especially with countries not showing certain movies.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
Yeah, but I don't think Wakanda Forever gets close to that. My guess is right around Thor Love and Thunder. and if I get to keep my +/- $100 mil, that would put it pretty close to even at $660 mil (realizing we are estimates for cost) to $860 mil, which is pretty comfortable over to me.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
Gotcha, thanks. I thought I was going crazy for a minute.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Wakanda Forever: The Official Black Panther Podcast Debuts November 3
A Combination of Audio Narrative Storytelling and Interviews Hosted by Ta-Nehisi Coates, Featuring Ryan Coogler, Kevin Feige, Angela Bassett and More
www.marvel.com
MickeyMouse10
Well-Known Member
I think it will do good for 2 weeks and then really plummet downwards.
Marvel movies seem to have less staying power now financially, because there's no repeat viewings. Plus in my opinion most of their Phase 4 movies and shows have been duds. Which most people will only watch once and never again.
Here's hoping they course correct and start making better content.
Marvel movies seem to have less staying power now financially, because there's no repeat viewings. Plus in my opinion most of their Phase 4 movies and shows have been duds. Which most people will only watch once and never again.
Here's hoping they course correct and start making better content.
MarvelCharacterNerd
Well-Known Member
‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Holds Historic Premiere In Nigeria
In anticipation of its release this coming week, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continued its promotional tour with a historic premiere in Lagos, Nigeria on Sunday evening. This was…
deadline.com
Screamface
Well-Known Member
Why see it a second time if it'll be on Disney+ which you subscribe to.
So who knows how the financials work out. I agree though, Most recent Marvel stuff has been duds.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I think it will have decent holds until Avatar 2 comes out. Thanksgiving week/weekend will give it good holds.
Second weekend: probably drop about 60%....probably not quite as much as Strange 2 if it gets good reviews
Third weekend: movies usually hold well over Thanksgiving weekend. It will probably only drop 20-30% that weekend and make about 80% of that during the week as well.
Fourth weekend: the drop will be steep, but not as steep as the 2nd weekend. It will probably drop somewhere around 50%. But midweek will be much softer.
Fifth weekend: after a heavy drop and nothing else coming out, it should have a better hold. It may drop around 40%, maybe even less.
Sixth weekend: This is when Avatar 2 comes out. It will steal the thunder (and screens) from BPWF. WF will probably drop another 50%.
By that time, it will probably have made roughly 95% of its total gross. So it all depends on the opening weekend. And tomorrow's critic scores will influence that more than we think
At the moment, the Thursday previews, based on sale rates and extrapolations, look to be between $25-$28 million. That's less than both Strange2 and Thor4 BUT it is expected to hold better through the weekend and have a better multiplier through the weekend than either of those 2.
Strange 2 had a 5.2 multiplier on a $36 million preview.
Thor 4 had a 5.0X on a $29 million preview.
No Way Home had a 5.2X on a $50 million preview (that happens when previews are so high).
BUT Shang Chi had a 8.5X on a $8.8 million preview (that does NOT count Labor Day Monday).
Shang Chi was a runaway hit. But it has great reviews and a very small preview number. BPWF will not have that multiplier,but it SHOULD have a higher one than Strange 2, Thor4, and NWH. Maybe it will have a 6-6.5X. And many think it will have much better walk-ups as well as great last week sales.
I'm going to still say that it will open between $180-$185 million. But it should have better legs for the first 6 weeks than both Strange 2 and Thor 4 did for their entire runs. It has a decent shot at hitting $500 million domestic.
Worldwide will be an interesting story. With all the China crap and other countries just not showing it, it will be a nail-biter for hitting $1 billion. Sadly, I think it is going to miss that mark due to international political nonsense.
Second weekend: probably drop about 60%....probably not quite as much as Strange 2 if it gets good reviews
Third weekend: movies usually hold well over Thanksgiving weekend. It will probably only drop 20-30% that weekend and make about 80% of that during the week as well.
Fourth weekend: the drop will be steep, but not as steep as the 2nd weekend. It will probably drop somewhere around 50%. But midweek will be much softer.
Fifth weekend: after a heavy drop and nothing else coming out, it should have a better hold. It may drop around 40%, maybe even less.
Sixth weekend: This is when Avatar 2 comes out. It will steal the thunder (and screens) from BPWF. WF will probably drop another 50%.
By that time, it will probably have made roughly 95% of its total gross. So it all depends on the opening weekend. And tomorrow's critic scores will influence that more than we think
At the moment, the Thursday previews, based on sale rates and extrapolations, look to be between $25-$28 million. That's less than both Strange2 and Thor4 BUT it is expected to hold better through the weekend and have a better multiplier through the weekend than either of those 2.
Strange 2 had a 5.2 multiplier on a $36 million preview.
Thor 4 had a 5.0X on a $29 million preview.
No Way Home had a 5.2X on a $50 million preview (that happens when previews are so high).
BUT Shang Chi had a 8.5X on a $8.8 million preview (that does NOT count Labor Day Monday).
Shang Chi was a runaway hit. But it has great reviews and a very small preview number. BPWF will not have that multiplier,but it SHOULD have a higher one than Strange 2, Thor4, and NWH. Maybe it will have a 6-6.5X. And many think it will have much better walk-ups as well as great last week sales.
I'm going to still say that it will open between $180-$185 million. But it should have better legs for the first 6 weeks than both Strange 2 and Thor 4 did for their entire runs. It has a decent shot at hitting $500 million domestic.
Worldwide will be an interesting story. With all the China crap and other countries just not showing it, it will be a nail-biter for hitting $1 billion. Sadly, I think it is going to miss that mark due to international political nonsense.
MickeyMouse10
Well-Known Member
LOL, that's true. I'll just wait for it, maybe I'll have another 1.99 subscription by then.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Waiting to see where it is at 100 reviews. That's my key number. Right now it's 94% at 86 reviews. Tremendous start!
If you happen to be in the area -
"Ready to journey back to the legendary country of Wakanda? On Nov. 10, 2022, you have the opportunity to attend a special opening night viewing of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the AMC Disney Springs 24 theater in Disney Springs!
Following the wake of King T’Challa’s death, Queen Ramonda, Shuri, M’Baku, Okoye, and the Dora Milaje fight to protect their nation from intervening world powers. Together, our heroes must embrace their next chapter and forge a new path for the kingdom of Wakanda. The film is directed by Ryan Coogler and produced by Kevin Feige and Nate Moore.
The film begins at 7 p.m. ET (doors open at 6 p.m. ET) at AMC Disney Springs 24 theater at the Walt Disney World Resort on Thursday, Nov. 10.
You can RSVP to join this special meet-up by clicking here. Each confirmed registrant can bring a guest. A limited number of attendees may attend the meet-up, so be one of the first to sign up!"
More details -
"Ready to journey back to the legendary country of Wakanda? On Nov. 10, 2022, you have the opportunity to attend a special opening night viewing of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the AMC Disney Springs 24 theater in Disney Springs!
Following the wake of King T’Challa’s death, Queen Ramonda, Shuri, M’Baku, Okoye, and the Dora Milaje fight to protect their nation from intervening world powers. Together, our heroes must embrace their next chapter and forge a new path for the kingdom of Wakanda. The film is directed by Ryan Coogler and produced by Kevin Feige and Nate Moore.
The film begins at 7 p.m. ET (doors open at 6 p.m. ET) at AMC Disney Springs 24 theater at the Walt Disney World Resort on Thursday, Nov. 10.
You can RSVP to join this special meet-up by clicking here. Each confirmed registrant can bring a guest. A limited number of attendees may attend the meet-up, so be one of the first to sign up!"
More details -
Sign up for the ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Opening Night Event at Disney Springs
Ready to journey back to the legendary country of Wakanda? On Nov. 10, 2022, you have the opportunity to attend a special opening night viewing of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the AMC Disney Springs 24 theater in Disney Springs!
disneyparks.disney.go.com
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
But you have to beware of audience bombing. There's a contingency out there of those ready to jump on this thing due to (a) not recasting T'Challa, (b) female driven, and/or (if they don't verify viewings) (c) general growing racism and anti-"wokeness".
So audience scores are going to be contentious for this one.
The CineScore will be the one to watch this weekend. It polls people who attended a viewing. It can't be bombed.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I'm guessing that will be pretty high. The reason I say this is that people wanting Chadwick to have been recast already know the answer. That seems to be the biggest issue. Those that are truly upset about it won't be seeing it. I can't see it being less than an A-.
Btw, it has fallen to 88% on RT. Still solid. Interesting to see how the box office plays out. My $180-$185 million prediction is based on some tracking I've seen along with how Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi dropped from their predecessors (in terms of opening weekends). Those numbers also match up to a multiplier on $28/$29 million previews that I've seen projected.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
True, but I'm not sure that's as high as people want to think it is (but you are correct, worth being warry of). At any rate, I still trust that more than the critics for me.