Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

[Sirwalterraleigh]

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What does that have to do with Disneys PR and their financial goals?

Companies don’t have “hearts”…they have quarterlies.

I don’t know how they really feel about the movie and that actor.

I personally loved him in every movie…he was a brilliant actor. I was very sad the day he left. Big loss.

But I can’t delude myself to paint TWDC as a Saint for my own comfort as a fan. So it’s not a out of bounds question to ask if they could be using this a little? It’s an uncomfortable question - no doubt. We live on earth - however.

 

[Disney Irish]

What does that have to do with Disneys PR and their financial goals?

Companies don’t have “hearts”…they have quarterlies.

I don’t know how they really feel about the movie and that actor.

I personally loved him in every movie…he was a brilliant actor. I was very sad the day he left. Big loss.

But I can’t delude myself to paint TWDC as a Saint for my own comfort as a fan. So it’s not a out of bounds question to ask if they could be using this a little? It’s an uncomfortable question - no doubt. We live on earth - however.

And what does any of this have to do with what was being talked about, an actress paying homage to another fellow actor who died with the clothes she wore on the red carpet of the premiere of the movie which they pay tribute to that same actor?

Not everything has to be about the quarterlies my friend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And what does any of this have to do with what was being talked about, an actress paying homage to another fellow actor who died with the clothes she wore on the red carpet of the premiere of the movie which they pay tribute to that same actor?

Not everything has to be about the quarterlies my friend.

If you READ…instead of being the yoda of the comic book universe…

The “do you really think she chose her outfit?” Was where it veered.

Then the praetorians lined up around the emperor…Mouses Augustus.

Again…I don’t know intentions or where the thoughts behind the scenes with this movie are? It’s a very unique/difficult scenario - no doubt.

But it’s not out of line to consider the spot they’re all in. Uncomfortable sure…but not unreasonable.

We have to see how the movie is, if it’s as well received as assumed by…some…and if any of this matters?
Probably won’t…in the end. MCU big picture is tied to it though. Losing steam a little.

And another reminder: critics are gonna love it. There was never any question of that. Sign of the times.
But that doesn’t make it a great movie. We have to see it. Been down this road before.

 

[Disney Irish]

If you READ…instead of being the yoda of the comic book universe…

The “do you really think she chose her outfit?” Was where it veered.

Then the praetorians lined up around the emperor…Mouses Augustus.

Again…I don’t know intentions or where the thoughts behind the scenes with this movie are? It’s a very unique/difficult scenario - no doubt.

But it’s not out of line to consider the spot they’re all in. Uncomfortable sure…but not unreasonable.

We have to see how the movie is, if it’s as well received as assumed by…some…and if any of this matters?
Probably won’t…in the end. MCU big picture is tied to it though. Losing steam a little.

And another reminder: critics are gonna love it. There was never any question of that. Sign of the times.
But that doesn’t make it a great movie. We have to see it. Been down this road before.

Dude it’s an outfit, that’s all. It’s not something that has to be overanalyzed. And certainly doesn’t need to be discussed in the context of the overall BO performance of the film. It’s an outfit.

 

[Ghost93]

Dude it’s an outfit, that’s all. It’s not something that has to be overanalyzed. And certainly doesn’t need to be discussed in the context of the overall BO performance of the film. It’s an outfit.

Nope, the outfit is the determining factor for whether this movie grosses $1 billion at the box office or not. Many great movies have flopped due to the actors wearing the wrong attire for the Red Carpet premiere.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Nope, the outfit is the determining factor for whether this movie grosses $1 billion at the box office or not. Many great movies have flopped due to the actors wearing the wrong attire for the Red Carpet premiere.

When Stan Lee passed away, no one dressed up like him on subsequent runways. And that's why Captain Marvel, Endgame, and Far From Home all failed miserably at the Box Office.

 

[Jedijax719]

What the hell is going on here?

 

[Californian Elitist]

What the hell is going on here?

Some people, who seem to be hoping for the film to do badly/expecting for it to do badly, have spun Letitia Wright’s decision to honor Chadwick Boseman by wearing a similar-looking premiere outfit into something wild.

Many of us are confused here.

 

[Jedijax719]

Some people, who seem to be hoping for the film to do badly/expecting for it to do badly, have spun Letitia Wright’s decision to honor Chadwick Boseman by wearing a similar-looking premiere outfit into something wild.

Many of us are confused here.

Yyyeah-that's what I figured, but it's like being in the (cue music) twilight zone sometimes.

Anyway, I can't WAIT to analyze the hell out of the movie when it comes out. Looking to actually see it on November 12.

 

[MarvelCharacterNerd]

What does that have to do with Disneys PR and their financial goals?

Absolutely nothing. I was commenting on a lovely gesture of respect by an actress I appreciate. I have no idea what that has to do with financials.

 

[Disney Analyst]

That depends on what standard is being applied. I was thinking Disney accounting.

Hasn’t been a banner year for MCU at the box office

Some analysis and speculation:

Black Panther 2 Box Office Predicted For 2nd Highest 2022 MCU Opening

Black Panther 2 lands in theaters on November 11.

screenrant.com

Box office totals in 2022 are in line with other non-Avengers years

Despite the review hiccups, MCU movies have still been quite the pull at the box office. 2021 and 2022 have averaged similar totals to years when no Avengers movie—Marvel's tentpole

www.insidenova.com

 

[DCBaker]

New featurette -

 

[_caleb]

Strange how I'm seeing a lot of "Yeah, it will do well at the box office, nut not because it's any good" takes.

And often from the same people who are like, "Shang-Chi was terrible–look how poorly it performed at the box office!"

 

[Jedijax719]

Strange how I'm seeing a lot of "Yeah, it will do well at the box office, nut not because it's any good" takes.

And often from the same people who are like, "Shang-Chi was terrible–look how poorly it performed at the box office!"

Well if the reactions are any indication, it is very good. And Shang Chi was also highly regarded. It has a 91% critic score and a 98% audience score. It was the first pandemic movie to make over $200 million domestic AND that was during a terrible COVID peak.

@DCBaker you beat me to it! Great featurette! The more I hear "Namor just wants to protect his people" the more I think he must be set up against Wakanda. His intentions alone seem like Wakanda has made aggressive moves against them, thus damning Wakanda. I can't see them doing that so I feel like someone is pitting them against each other.

 

[Jedijax719]

Three Marvel Legend shorts coming to D+ on Friday, Nov, 4:
King T'Challa
Princess Shuri
Dora Milaje

 

[LSLS]

I guess my question is what does "doing well" mean? Is it making a profit? If so, anyone have some numbers as to the estimated cost of the movie? Or is it being in the same range as the first one? My number guess, I'd say right around Thor (+/- $100 mil). No idea if that makes it a success or not. But, I think the first had a few things going for it this does not have (first major Black superhero movie, the last one before Infinity War, etc.) that it will not have this time.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I guess my question is what does "doing well" mean? Is it making a profit? If so, anyone have some numbers as to the estimated cost of the movie? Or is it being in the same range as the first one? My number guess, I'd say right around Thor (+/- $100 mil). No idea if that makes it a success or not. But, I think the first had a few things going for it this does not have (first major Black superhero movie, the last one before Infinity War, etc.) that it will not have this time.

$200M

Walt Disney's Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget Reportedly $250 Million - The Filmik

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget: Walt Disney Studios has spent a massive amount to produce the sequel, and the production cost of 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' is $250 million, before printing and advertising costs.

www.thefilmik.com

That means it will have to make over $600M globally to be net profitable.

Projections are that domestic alone are $450-$550.

Box office projections​

According to The Hollywood Reporter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is projected to earn $175 million in North America on its opening weekend.[119] Boxoffice Pro estimates the film's opening weekend in North America to be between $180–210 million, and is projected to earn $445–555 million for its total domestic gross.[120]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Jedijax719]

I guess my question is what does "doing well" mean? Is it making a profit? If so, anyone have some numbers as to the estimated cost of the movie? Or is it being in the same range as the first one? My number guess, I'd say right around Thor (+/- $100 mil). No idea if that makes it a success or not. But, I think the first had a few things going for it this does not have (first major Black superhero movie, the last one before Infinity War, etc.) that it will not have this time.

Depends on who you're talking to. To stakeholders? Profit for sure. To MCU fans? It's probably doing better than anything since Endgame. To those who follow box office and don't care about the movie? Could be a lot of things.

For me, I look at sequel drops for major motion pictures in order to get a metric for big success. Age of Ultron made 73% of Avengers. The Last Jedi made 66% of The Force Awakens. Rise of Skywalker made 83% of The Last Jedi (should not have dropped at all if it was a better movie). Fallen Kingdom (not well received) made 64% of Jurassic World.

So, I would hope it would at LEAST hold better than the FK->JW hold and be, at minimum, somewhere in the TLJ or AOU range of hold. That puts it at $462 million or higher.

Now, is lower than that a failure? I think that would depend on a LOT of factors-some controllable and some not. We are in a post-pandemic era. We are also in a streaming era. Movies have shorter shelf lives at theaters. That is why Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 had such horrible legs. Meanwhile, we have No Way Home and Shang Chi which had very strong legs DESPITE the pandemic being in full fury at the time. BUT, we know that Avatar2 will have an impact on BPWF's legs. If for no other reason, A2 will take a bunch of theaters away, particularly the higher end format screens


So, to me
Anything over $550 million is GREAT!
$500-$549 million is very very good!
$470-$499 million is slightly disappointing but overall decent (depending on OW)
$450-$469 is okay
Less than $450 million would disappoint me.
Less than $400 million would be catastrophic for the movie and the MCU in general.

 

[LSLS]

Depends on who you're talking to. To stakeholders? Profit for sure. To MCU fans? It's probably doing better than anything since Endgame. To those who follow box office and don't care about the movie? Could be a lot of things.

For me, I look at sequel drops for major motion pictures in order to get a metric for big success. Age of Ultron made 73% of Avengers. The Last Jedi made 66% of The Force Awakens. Rise of Skywalker made 83% of The Last Jedi (should not have dropped at all if it was a better movie). Fallen Kingdom (not well received) made 64% of Jurassic World.

So, I would hope it would at LEAST hold better than the FK->JW hold and be, at minimum, somewhere in the TLJ or AOU range of hold. That puts it at $462 million or higher.

Now, is lower than that a failure? I think that would depend on a LOT of factors-some controllable and some not. We are in a post-pandemic era. We are also in a streaming era. Movies have shorter shelf lives at theaters. That is why Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 had such horrible legs. Meanwhile, we have No Way Home and Shang Chi which had very strong legs DESPITE the pandemic being in full fury at the time. BUT, we know that Avatar2 will have an impact on BPWF's legs. If for no other reason, A2 will take a bunch of theaters away, particularly the higher end format screens


So, to me
Anything over $550 million is GREAT!
$500-$549 million is very very good!
$470-$499 million is slightly disappointing but overall decent (depending on OW)
$450-$469 is okay
Less than $450 million would disappoint me.
Less than $400 million would be catastrophic for the movie and the MCU in general.

Wait, I'm lost on your numbers. Didn't Fallen Kingdom make $1.3 billion, and Jurassic World $1.6? That's not 64%. Also, wouldn't 64% of $1.348 billion (the original Black Panther) be $860 million?

 

[LSLS]

$200M

Walt Disney's Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget Reportedly $250 Million - The Filmik

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget: Walt Disney Studios has spent a massive amount to produce the sequel, and the production cost of 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' is $250 million, before printing and advertising costs.

www.thefilmik.com

That means it will have to make over $600M globally to be net profitable.

Projections are that domestic alone are $450-$550.

Box office projections​

According to The Hollywood Reporter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is projected to earn $175 million in North America on its opening weekend.[119] Boxoffice Pro estimates the film's opening weekend in North America to be between $180–210 million, and is projected to earn $445–555 million for its total domestic gross.[120]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Thanks. So my guess (cause hey, I'll put my number down for fun) is anywhere from just above break even to comfortably over it.