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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Thread starter Lucky Rabbit
- Start date
MarvelCharacterNerd
Well-Known Member
‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Holds Historic Premiere In Nigeria
In anticipation of its release this coming week, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continued its promotional tour with a historic premiere in Lagos, Nigeria on Sunday evening. This was…
deadline.com
Screamface
Well-Known Member
Why see it a second time if it'll be on Disney+ which you subscribe to.
So who knows how the financials work out. I agree though, Most recent Marvel stuff has been duds.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I think it will have decent holds until Avatar 2 comes out. Thanksgiving week/weekend will give it good holds.
Second weekend: probably drop about 60%....probably not quite as much as Strange 2 if it gets good reviews
Third weekend: movies usually hold well over Thanksgiving weekend. It will probably only drop 20-30% that weekend and make about 80% of that during the week as well.
Fourth weekend: the drop will be steep, but not as steep as the 2nd weekend. It will probably drop somewhere around 50%. But midweek will be much softer.
Fifth weekend: after a heavy drop and nothing else coming out, it should have a better hold. It may drop around 40%, maybe even less.
Sixth weekend: This is when Avatar 2 comes out. It will steal the thunder (and screens) from BPWF. WF will probably drop another 50%.
By that time, it will probably have made roughly 95% of its total gross. So it all depends on the opening weekend. And tomorrow's critic scores will influence that more than we think
At the moment, the Thursday previews, based on sale rates and extrapolations, look to be between $25-$28 million. That's less than both Strange2 and Thor4 BUT it is expected to hold better through the weekend and have a better multiplier through the weekend than either of those 2.
Strange 2 had a 5.2 multiplier on a $36 million preview.
Thor 4 had a 5.0X on a $29 million preview.
No Way Home had a 5.2X on a $50 million preview (that happens when previews are so high).
BUT Shang Chi had a 8.5X on a $8.8 million preview (that does NOT count Labor Day Monday).
Shang Chi was a runaway hit. But it has great reviews and a very small preview number. BPWF will not have that multiplier,but it SHOULD have a higher one than Strange 2, Thor4, and NWH. Maybe it will have a 6-6.5X. And many think it will have much better walk-ups as well as great last week sales.
I'm going to still say that it will open between $180-$185 million. But it should have better legs for the first 6 weeks than both Strange 2 and Thor 4 did for their entire runs. It has a decent shot at hitting $500 million domestic.
Worldwide will be an interesting story. With all the China crap and other countries just not showing it, it will be a nail-biter for hitting $1 billion. Sadly, I think it is going to miss that mark due to international political nonsense.
Second weekend: probably drop about 60%....probably not quite as much as Strange 2 if it gets good reviews
Third weekend: movies usually hold well over Thanksgiving weekend. It will probably only drop 20-30% that weekend and make about 80% of that during the week as well.
Fourth weekend: the drop will be steep, but not as steep as the 2nd weekend. It will probably drop somewhere around 50%. But midweek will be much softer.
Fifth weekend: after a heavy drop and nothing else coming out, it should have a better hold. It may drop around 40%, maybe even less.
Sixth weekend: This is when Avatar 2 comes out. It will steal the thunder (and screens) from BPWF. WF will probably drop another 50%.
By that time, it will probably have made roughly 95% of its total gross. So it all depends on the opening weekend. And tomorrow's critic scores will influence that more than we think
At the moment, the Thursday previews, based on sale rates and extrapolations, look to be between $25-$28 million. That's less than both Strange2 and Thor4 BUT it is expected to hold better through the weekend and have a better multiplier through the weekend than either of those 2.
Strange 2 had a 5.2 multiplier on a $36 million preview.
Thor 4 had a 5.0X on a $29 million preview.
No Way Home had a 5.2X on a $50 million preview (that happens when previews are so high).
BUT Shang Chi had a 8.5X on a $8.8 million preview (that does NOT count Labor Day Monday).
Shang Chi was a runaway hit. But it has great reviews and a very small preview number. BPWF will not have that multiplier,but it SHOULD have a higher one than Strange 2, Thor4, and NWH. Maybe it will have a 6-6.5X. And many think it will have much better walk-ups as well as great last week sales.
I'm going to still say that it will open between $180-$185 million. But it should have better legs for the first 6 weeks than both Strange 2 and Thor 4 did for their entire runs. It has a decent shot at hitting $500 million domestic.
Worldwide will be an interesting story. With all the China crap and other countries just not showing it, it will be a nail-biter for hitting $1 billion. Sadly, I think it is going to miss that mark due to international political nonsense.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Waiting to see where it is at 100 reviews. That's my key number. Right now it's 94% at 86 reviews. Tremendous start!
If you happen to be in the area -
"Ready to journey back to the legendary country of Wakanda? On Nov. 10, 2022, you have the opportunity to attend a special opening night viewing of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the AMC Disney Springs 24 theater in Disney Springs!
Following the wake of King T’Challa’s death, Queen Ramonda, Shuri, M’Baku, Okoye, and the Dora Milaje fight to protect their nation from intervening world powers. Together, our heroes must embrace their next chapter and forge a new path for the kingdom of Wakanda. The film is directed by Ryan Coogler and produced by Kevin Feige and Nate Moore.
The film begins at 7 p.m. ET (doors open at 6 p.m. ET) at AMC Disney Springs 24 theater at the Walt Disney World Resort on Thursday, Nov. 10.
You can RSVP to join this special meet-up by clicking here. Each confirmed registrant can bring a guest. A limited number of attendees may attend the meet-up, so be one of the first to sign up!"
More details -
"Ready to journey back to the legendary country of Wakanda? On Nov. 10, 2022, you have the opportunity to attend a special opening night viewing of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the AMC Disney Springs 24 theater in Disney Springs!
Following the wake of King T’Challa’s death, Queen Ramonda, Shuri, M’Baku, Okoye, and the Dora Milaje fight to protect their nation from intervening world powers. Together, our heroes must embrace their next chapter and forge a new path for the kingdom of Wakanda. The film is directed by Ryan Coogler and produced by Kevin Feige and Nate Moore.
The film begins at 7 p.m. ET (doors open at 6 p.m. ET) at AMC Disney Springs 24 theater at the Walt Disney World Resort on Thursday, Nov. 10.
You can RSVP to join this special meet-up by clicking here. Each confirmed registrant can bring a guest. A limited number of attendees may attend the meet-up, so be one of the first to sign up!"
More details -
Sign up for the ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Opening Night Event at Disney Springs
Ready to journey back to the legendary country of Wakanda? On Nov. 10, 2022, you have the opportunity to attend a special opening night viewing of “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” at the AMC Disney Springs 24 theater in Disney Springs!
disneyparks.disney.go.com
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
But you have to beware of audience bombing. There's a contingency out there of those ready to jump on this thing due to (a) not recasting T'Challa, (b) female driven, and/or (if they don't verify viewings) (c) general growing racism and anti-"wokeness".
So audience scores are going to be contentious for this one.
The CineScore will be the one to watch this weekend. It polls people who attended a viewing. It can't be bombed.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I'm guessing that will be pretty high. The reason I say this is that people wanting Chadwick to have been recast already know the answer. That seems to be the biggest issue. Those that are truly upset about it won't be seeing it. I can't see it being less than an A-.
Btw, it has fallen to 88% on RT. Still solid. Interesting to see how the box office plays out. My $180-$185 million prediction is based on some tracking I've seen along with how Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi dropped from their predecessors (in terms of opening weekends). Those numbers also match up to a multiplier on $28/$29 million previews that I've seen projected.
LSLS
Well-Known Member
True, but I'm not sure that's as high as people want to think it is (but you are correct, worth being warry of). At any rate, I still trust that more than the critics for me.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Hopefully. And hopefully they fixed the issue with "verified audience" enough to limit review bombing.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
And I am pretty sure some of those people post in this forum.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
All I can say is I forgot to get tickets...
Looked yesterday at the VIP theatre near us for Tuesday, and could see most showings were sold out, but their were three times that had no seats sold yet.
I think I stumbled upon them adding 3 more showings for the day. So we got the first two seats for a 9:15 showing, which I can see today is now also filling up.
Adding show times is a good sign IMO.
Looked yesterday at the VIP theatre near us for Tuesday, and could see most showings were sold out, but their were three times that had no seats sold yet.
I think I stumbled upon them adding 3 more showings for the day. So we got the first two seats for a 9:15 showing, which I can see today is now also filling up.
Adding show times is a good sign IMO.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Down to 85% on rotten tomatoes. Maybe I am naive, but I never figured out why RT scores for big movies fall over the first few days from the initial scores.
Tracking suggests about $27 million in Thursday previews. No idea what is going on in other cities, but for Houston, tickets are not selling well at all for the rest of the weekend. Media sites are predicting $175-$200 million opening weekend (quite a range). Personally, based on anecdotal evidence, I'm leaning more toward $160-$170 million right now.
Tracking suggests about $27 million in Thursday previews. No idea what is going on in other cities, but for Houston, tickets are not selling well at all for the rest of the weekend. Media sites are predicting $175-$200 million opening weekend (quite a range). Personally, based on anecdotal evidence, I'm leaning more toward $160-$170 million right now.
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Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Or people who didn't get invited are bitter and review accordingly. Works both ways, bud.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
Will ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Beat ‘Doctor Strange 2’ for Biggest Opening Weekend of the Year?
There’s no doubt that Marvel Studios’ “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” will prove to be a box office smash when it debuts in 4,300 North American theaters on Friday. But jus…
variety.com
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Box Office Pro says $192 m. I'd LOVE that! I don't think it will happen, but I would jump for joy!