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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Jedijax719

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Californian Elitist said:
Some people, who seem to be hoping for the film to do badly/expecting for it to do badly, have spun Letitia Wright’s decision to honor Chadwick Boseman by wearing a similar-looking premiere outfit into something wild.

Many of us are confused here.
Click to expand...
Yyyeah-that's what I figured, but it's like being in the (cue music) twilight zone sometimes.

Anyway, I can't WAIT to analyze the hell out of the movie when it comes out. Looking to actually see it on November 12.
 
Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
That depends on what standard is being applied. I was thinking Disney accounting.

Hasn’t been a banner year for MCU at the box office
Click to expand...

Some analysis and speculation:


screenrant.com

Black Panther 2 Box Office Predicted For 2nd Highest 2022 MCU Opening

Black Panther 2 lands in theaters on November 11.
screenrant.com screenrant.com



www.insidenova.com

Box office totals in 2022 are in line with other non-Avengers years

Despite the review hiccups, MCU movies have still been quite the pull at the box office. 2021 and 2022 have averaged similar totals to years when no Avengers movie—Marvel's tentpole
www.insidenova.com www.insidenova.com
 
_caleb

_caleb

Well-Known Member
Strange how I'm seeing a lot of "Yeah, it will do well at the box office, nut not because it's any good" takes.

And often from the same people who are like, "Shang-Chi was terrible–look how poorly it performed at the box office!"
 
Jedijax719

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
_caleb said:
Strange how I'm seeing a lot of "Yeah, it will do well at the box office, nut not because it's any good" takes.

And often from the same people who are like, "Shang-Chi was terrible–look how poorly it performed at the box office!"
Click to expand...
Well if the reactions are any indication, it is very good. And Shang Chi was also highly regarded. It has a 91% critic score and a 98% audience score. It was the first pandemic movie to make over $200 million domestic AND that was during a terrible COVID peak.

@DCBaker you beat me to it! Great featurette! The more I hear "Namor just wants to protect his people" the more I think he must be set up against Wakanda. His intentions alone seem like Wakanda has made aggressive moves against them, thus damning Wakanda. I can't see them doing that so I feel like someone is pitting them against each other.
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
I guess my question is what does "doing well" mean? Is it making a profit? If so, anyone have some numbers as to the estimated cost of the movie? Or is it being in the same range as the first one? My number guess, I'd say right around Thor (+/- $100 mil). No idea if that makes it a success or not. But, I think the first had a few things going for it this does not have (first major Black superhero movie, the last one before Infinity War, etc.) that it will not have this time.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
LSLS said:
I guess my question is what does "doing well" mean? Is it making a profit? If so, anyone have some numbers as to the estimated cost of the movie? Or is it being in the same range as the first one? My number guess, I'd say right around Thor (+/- $100 mil). No idea if that makes it a success or not. But, I think the first had a few things going for it this does not have (first major Black superhero movie, the last one before Infinity War, etc.) that it will not have this time.
Click to expand...
$200M

www.thefilmik.com

Walt Disney's Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget Reportedly $250 Million - The Filmik

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget: Walt Disney Studios has spent a massive amount to produce the sequel, and the production cost of 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' is $250 million, before printing and advertising costs.
www.thefilmik.com www.thefilmik.com

That means it will have to make over $600M globally to be net profitable.

Projections are that domestic alone are $450-$550.

Box office projections​

According to The Hollywood Reporter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is projected to earn $175 million in North America on its opening weekend.[119] Boxoffice Pro estimates the film's opening weekend in North America to be between $180–210 million, and is projected to earn $445–555 million for its total domestic gross.[120]

en.wikipedia.org

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Jedijax719

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
LSLS said:
I guess my question is what does "doing well" mean? Is it making a profit? If so, anyone have some numbers as to the estimated cost of the movie? Or is it being in the same range as the first one? My number guess, I'd say right around Thor (+/- $100 mil). No idea if that makes it a success or not. But, I think the first had a few things going for it this does not have (first major Black superhero movie, the last one before Infinity War, etc.) that it will not have this time.
Click to expand...
Depends on who you're talking to. To stakeholders? Profit for sure. To MCU fans? It's probably doing better than anything since Endgame. To those who follow box office and don't care about the movie? Could be a lot of things.

For me, I look at sequel drops for major motion pictures in order to get a metric for big success. Age of Ultron made 73% of Avengers. The Last Jedi made 66% of The Force Awakens. Rise of Skywalker made 83% of The Last Jedi (should not have dropped at all if it was a better movie). Fallen Kingdom (not well received) made 64% of Jurassic World.

So, I would hope it would at LEAST hold better than the FK->JW hold and be, at minimum, somewhere in the TLJ or AOU range of hold. That puts it at $462 million or higher.

Now, is lower than that a failure? I think that would depend on a LOT of factors-some controllable and some not. We are in a post-pandemic era. We are also in a streaming era. Movies have shorter shelf lives at theaters. That is why Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 had such horrible legs. Meanwhile, we have No Way Home and Shang Chi which had very strong legs DESPITE the pandemic being in full fury at the time. BUT, we know that Avatar2 will have an impact on BPWF's legs. If for no other reason, A2 will take a bunch of theaters away, particularly the higher end format screens


So, to me
Anything over $550 million is GREAT!
$500-$549 million is very very good!
$470-$499 million is slightly disappointing but overall decent (depending on OW)
$450-$469 is okay
Less than $450 million would disappoint me.
Less than $400 million would be catastrophic for the movie and the MCU in general.
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Jedijax719 said:
Depends on who you're talking to. To stakeholders? Profit for sure. To MCU fans? It's probably doing better than anything since Endgame. To those who follow box office and don't care about the movie? Could be a lot of things.

For me, I look at sequel drops for major motion pictures in order to get a metric for big success. Age of Ultron made 73% of Avengers. The Last Jedi made 66% of The Force Awakens. Rise of Skywalker made 83% of The Last Jedi (should not have dropped at all if it was a better movie). Fallen Kingdom (not well received) made 64% of Jurassic World.

So, I would hope it would at LEAST hold better than the FK->JW hold and be, at minimum, somewhere in the TLJ or AOU range of hold. That puts it at $462 million or higher.

Now, is lower than that a failure? I think that would depend on a LOT of factors-some controllable and some not. We are in a post-pandemic era. We are also in a streaming era. Movies have shorter shelf lives at theaters. That is why Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 had such horrible legs. Meanwhile, we have No Way Home and Shang Chi which had very strong legs DESPITE the pandemic being in full fury at the time. BUT, we know that Avatar2 will have an impact on BPWF's legs. If for no other reason, A2 will take a bunch of theaters away, particularly the higher end format screens


So, to me
Anything over $550 million is GREAT!
$500-$549 million is very very good!
$470-$499 million is slightly disappointing but overall decent (depending on OW)
$450-$469 is okay
Less than $450 million would disappoint me.
Less than $400 million would be catastrophic for the movie and the MCU in general.
Click to expand...

Wait, I'm lost on your numbers. Didn't Fallen Kingdom make $1.3 billion, and Jurassic World $1.6? That's not 64%. Also, wouldn't 64% of $1.348 billion (the original Black Panther) be $860 million?
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
$200M

www.thefilmik.com

Walt Disney's Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget Reportedly $250 Million - The Filmik

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Budget: Walt Disney Studios has spent a massive amount to produce the sequel, and the production cost of 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' is $250 million, before printing and advertising costs.
www.thefilmik.com www.thefilmik.com

That means it will have to make over $600M globally to be net profitable.

Projections are that domestic alone are $450-$550.

Box office projections​

According to The Hollywood Reporter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is projected to earn $175 million in North America on its opening weekend.[119] Boxoffice Pro estimates the film's opening weekend in North America to be between $180–210 million, and is projected to earn $445–555 million for its total domestic gross.[120]

en.wikipedia.org

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...

Thanks. So my guess (cause hey, I'll put my number down for fun) is anywhere from just above break even to comfortably over it.
 
spacemt354

spacemt354

Chili's
LSLS said:
Wait, I'm lost on your numbers. Didn't Fallen Kingdom make $1.3 billion, and Jurassic World $1.6? That's not 64%. Also, wouldn't 64% of $1.348 billion (the original Black Panther) be $860 million?
Click to expand...
I believe Jedi is using domestic numbers (Approx 653 million for Jurassic World to approx 417 million for Fallen Kingdom) which is 64% of the original
 
LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
The first film made twice the break even point at $1.3B.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but I don't think Wakanda Forever gets close to that. My guess is right around Thor Love and Thunder. and if I get to keep my +/- $100 mil, that would put it pretty close to even at $660 mil (realizing we are estimates for cost) to $860 mil, which is pretty comfortable over to me.
 

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