Bad news from our friends at MiceAge...

[jmb2676]

Universal not causing serious damage in the short term also does not discount the possibility of long term damage. The family that adds a few days at Universal this year may realize there are benefits to leaving the Disney bubble. In two years when they come back they may opt to stay off site or use days to see other attractions they have skipped before in favor of Disney. That is where the real danger is and, as history has shown with other giants of their field, can only really be stopped by never heading down that path. Once that sort of pattern takes shape and the evidence is clear reversing such a shift will only be exponentially more difficult to counter.

This describes us pretty well. 2 trips ago it was 1 day at Universal. Last trip it was 2 days. I'm thinking it could be 3 days next trip once the Potter expansion opens. I'm even considering a couple of nights at a Universal resort and I am a DVC member. Keep hearing how great the resorts are and am curious to try them out. Have stayed in Loews resorts before and they were a whole lot nicer than most DVC studio rooms.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Sorry for responding so late to this message, but I just consider walking through the track dangerous in itself. It is not a designated Guest walking area in first place, and requires the Cast Members to RAC out for safety, especially since there are moving parts. Also, in many of the rides, the floor may be uneven, narrow, etc. That said, it looks like you did cycle out.

When guests have to walk through a ride, the ride is completely turned off. Nothing's moving. Have you ever walked through any of the Fantasyland dark rides at Disneyland? With the exception of Alice in Wonderland, the floors are completely flat. There's no danger, uneven surfaces or narrow walkways. Besides the animatronics, there's nothing to be afraid of. Alice in Wonderland is built differently and sometimes requires firemen.

I'm curious, did you, at one point, work the classics Fantasyland at Disneyland?

 

[jlsHouston]

All I can say is I just got back from a week at Disney/universal and Universal is doing things right. I had little motivation to head into the Disney Parks. I'd like more new inventive rides at Disney please - not themed bathrooms and copies of boring little mermaid mistakes.

I can somewhat relate to this...I spent very little time in the parks this last visit and we were there 12 days. I did spend more time at DTD, which seeing Frozen at the theater of a Disney property was novel and I will definitely do something like that again. DTD looks like a great investment to me...the place was always packed, course it was Thanksgiving week lotsa people out and about. I think DTD is a big draw for locals also and that is a good think. House of Blues could be a hotspot of the future for celebs and people watching.

The parks are somewhat STALE....

 

[jlsHouston]

That's no surprise considering ABC is OWNED by Disney!

YAH duh.....

 

[ParentsOf4]

Furthermore, the profitability of that guest begins to drop rapidly too. Disney doesn't care about losing the park days -- afterall a 5 day ticket only costs a few dollars more than a 4 day ticket -- but is very concerned about losing nights spent at its hotels, as each night costs the same. As far as Disney is concerned, the fewer days a guest spends at the parks, the better, as the parks cost money to operate. I don't think Disney is concerned that Uni is building amazing theme parks that will draw guests for a day or two -- it welcomes that. But, I think Disney should be very concerned that Uni plans to significantly increase its hotel offerings as well. And, Uni is also building compelling reasons to consider its hotels, which are considerably less expensive that Disney's.

Much of the motivation behind Disney's MyMagic+ strategy is WDW’s hotels and a lot of what’s going on there can be seen from examining The Walt Disney Company’s 10K filings.

Consider “Per Room Guest Spending” (PRGS). As defined by Disney, “Per room guest spending consists of the average daily hotel room rate as well as guest spending on food, beverages and merchandise at the hotels.”

Back in 2005 when Iger became CEO, PRGS was $206. In the most recent completed fiscal year (2013), this number was $267. That’s a compound growth of only 3.3%. Inflation has averaged 2.3% over the same period so real growth is only 1.0%. For a company like Disney, that’s disappointing performance.

Most of the real growth has occurred due to higher food, beverages and merchandise prices at the hotels. By comparison, hotel room prices have stagnated.

We all understand why. Disney already charges 5-star prices for 3-star hotels. A Deluxe room at WDW often is 50% more than a similar room at Universal. Disney’s motel-like “Value” Resorts are over $100/night, $200/night during Easter and Christmas. Comparable offsite rooms can be found for a fraction of those prices.

Given the current added value of staying onsite at WDW, many decide to stay offsite, exerting downward pressure on WDW’s room prices.

Disney is banking on FastPass+ and MagicBand providing further gaps between the onsite and offsite experience, allowing Disney to once again raise prices on their hotel rooms.

Just remember, raising prices doesn’t necessarily mean higher rack rates, although that is desired. However, it definitely means fewer “Free Dining” offers and lower “Room Only” discounts.

The desired (by corporate Disney) net effect is for guests to pay a lot more for their onsite stays at WDW.

The issue to be debated (I don't know the answer) is whether Universal's strategy to more than double their hotel capacity will have any impact on Disney's plans for higher WDW hotel prices.

 

[FutureWorld1982]

When guests have to walk through a ride, the ride is completely turned off. Nothing's moving. Have you ever walked through any of the Fantasyland dark rides at Disneyland? With the exception of Alice in Wonderland, the floors are completely flat. There's no danger, uneven surfaces or narrow walkways. Besides the animatronics, there's nothing to be afraid of. Alice in Wonderland is built differently and sometimes requires firemen.

I'm curious, did you, at one point, work the classics Fantasyland at Disneyland?

No, I did not, but I do work at one of the dark rides here at WDW. We also have a flat ground to evacuate Guests, but any backstage area is basically considered to be "unsafe" for Guests, just because they should never be there unless there's something really major going on. That said, if I am not mistaken, you did not particularly like walking through Alice in Wonderland.

 

[Californian Elitist]

No, I did not, but I do work at one of the dark rides here at WDW. We also have a flat ground to evacuate Guests, but any backstage area is basically considered to be "unsafe" for Guests, just because they should never be there unless there's something really major going on. That said, if I am not mistaken, you did not particularly like walking through Alice in Wonderland.

Maybe what's considered backstage in Florida isn't considered backstage in California. That's what it's sounding like. Again, with the exception of Alice, none of the guests see backstage areas when evacuating the dark rides in FL at Disneyland.

No, I absolutely hated evacuating Alice.

 

[SirLink]

Only an idiot would think that possible.

What does have people in the company worried is people spending less time in WDW and more time elsewhere. No tourist in their right mind would spend 10 days at Uni and none at Disney. But they may spend 6 days at Disney instead of 10. That's hit the mark. But there's so many incompetent and arrogant levels of red tape they can't agree what to do and when. Plus there are some that still don't think they need to anything.

So some of the Board members ... along with a certain Son of guy who liked the One Disney Strategy ...

 

[SirLink]

Yet, Miceage hasn't accurately predicted a new attraction in over 6 years. Al Lutz left because his Disney leak moved to Orlando, and now the website seems to be looking for website hits by posting rumors as fact.

I know its late but ... arrogant much and that isn't the reason why he has stopped posting ... ever think it may be not even Disney related as to why...

 

[wdisney9000]

Universal not causing serious damage in the short term also does not discount the possibility of long term damage. The family that adds a few days at Universal this year may realize there are benefits to leaving the Disney bubble. In two years when they come back they may opt to stay off site or use days to see other attractions they have skipped before in favor of Disney. That is where the real danger is and, as history has shown with other giants of their field, can only really be stopped by never heading down that path. Once that sort of pattern takes shape and the evidence is clear reversing such a shift will only be exponentially more difficult to counter.

Customer acquisition vs customer retention 101: "it costs ten times more to acquire a new customer than it does to keep an existing one".

This is what some people seem to miss in the WDW vs Uni debate. They just bring up the huge attendance gap between WDW and Uni and conclude that WDW is so far ahead that they have nothing to worry about. Uni doesn't need to come anywhere near WDW's number to have a serious impact.

This goes hand in hand with what @lazyboy97o stated. Im pretty sure Disney knows that Uni is not taking the thrown but they know that the impact is costing millions. It adds up pretty quick when you figure the average family cutting out 2 days at WDW to visit Uni. How many people visit WDW a year? 40 million? Lets low ball it and say If Disney just lost one dollar per customer. Thats a lot of scratch.(roughly Igers salary,lol) Maybe thats where MM+ comes into play. They figure they can just gain that extra dollar back through customers charging a little more here and there with magic bands. Rather than worry about keeping the customer by means of new and exciting attractions, shows, and parades, they just need them to spend a few extra bucks and there is no loss. MM+ is a financial E-ticket in the eyes of execs. Theyre as excited about it as we would be if they announced a major attraction coming soon. Its a "Potter swatter" in their eyes, we just cant actually ride it.

 

[jlsHouston]

I'm really starting to become jaded about WDW. It's a hot mess these days. First of all, it draws so many tourists from all over the world, but at WDW it's all about money and efficiency. How can we cut costs to maximize profits? How can we be more efficient to get more bodies through the doors? It's all too predictable. WDW is marketed as a mecca, a right of passage, beyond magical, and practically perfect in every way, when in reality it is falling apart, stale, predictable, and a grab at the wallet. WDW as a whole is somewhat of a money pit. There are plenty of profits to milk from it, but the company does have to also worry about funding the Reedy Creek Improvement District side of WDW with roads, infrastructure, buildings, and utilities. WDW almost always is the one that suffers from a budget cuts or cancelled projects. Quality in the parks has gone down hill, but so has the average Disney guest. Disney guests are also more rude and greedy always trying to find ways to cheat the system, yet are suckers to Disney's merchandise mania. WDW is playing catch up, yet digging their hole deeper and deeper. Attendance keeps going up and the parks are busier than ever, but TDO is trying fix issues with capacity by larger paths, restrooms, more room in places, yet new rides and new shows are not part of the plan. It just feel like a big trap. TDO needs to refocus itself. You have to have the budget to maintain what you have and you need to add attractions in a timely manner to draw people to something new. All the while, you can still make improvements to infrastructure and capacity. You can also refocus on the little things like merchandise unique and themed to specific locations, better quality of food, and even painting the resort in a normal light not the perfect fake vacation that people expect and are disappointed when it doesn't materialize.

That's my rant of me talking in circles.

I believe MiceAge. DHS plans probably fell through, but at least Osborne Lights will return another year. MM+ is costing too much money. MSEP will probably be shipped back to Disneyland and in horrible shape. FoF will probably run during the day twice and fireworks at night with no nighttime parade. Avatar will continue, won't truley become a classic and will take it's sweet time.

I hated having to like this post but I have to agree with you in so many ways, and I love WDW and I spend alot of my vacation dollars on trips to the world and enjoy each and every visit, still have so much to see and do. I think it remains a wonderful resort experience and it's disney, but as you point out it is falling apart in alot of areas and, much of the parks are stale. I agree WDW is a money pit and the powers that be discovered that during the Eisner years when they increased the park entrance fees and added billions to the bottom line and never saw a hiccup in attendance.

I have no opinion as to what is going to be built or not built in the future except for what I see currently going on when I visit....DtD, FLE, and my GOD are they gutting the POLY ???? Is it still going to be the POLY when they get finished ? Couldn't they have just put in new elevators and added another big pool and hot tub?

I would love to see StarWars, and Avatar Land....children outgrow dumbo and barnstormer and the splash pad unfortunately and attractions that the entire family can enjoy for years to come is part of the Disney legacy of innovation....

 

[jlsHouston]

This is WDW's achille's heal -- and I think they know it. WDW's strategy has been to keep people on property so as to capture 100% of their vacation spend - park, hotel, food, and merch. If a guest leaves property, even if only for a day or two, everything changes as to where that guest may spend its money. As @ParentsOf4 has aptly pointed out many times, WDW is a hotel and timeshare businesses. An incredibly profitable one with exorbitant rates. To fill those rooms WDW operates theme parks and gives guests free transportation on property and to/from the airport. If a guest stays on property, Disney makes their lives easy (ok, well, not really but we'll debate the horrid state of the bus system later)

BUT, leaving property adds a new level of complication to the vacation plans. If a guest goes to Universal for a day or two, now they need a car (easiest way). Once a guest has a car, WDW's walled garden begins to fall apart. I completely agree that maybe in the short term the guest will continue to stay on property, but as more and more spend time off property, the perceived benefit of staying on property begins to quickly diminish, especially considering it is markedly more expensive, and maybe next trip the guest will go off property.

Furthermore, the profitability of that guest begins to drop rapidly too. Disney doesn't care about losing the park days -- afterall a 5 day ticket only costs a few dollars more than a 4 day ticket -- but is very concerned about losing nights spent at its hotels, as each night costs the same. As far as Disney is concerned, the fewer days a guest spends at the parks, the better, as the parks cost money to operate. I don't think Disney is concerned that Uni is building amazing theme parks that will draw guests for a day or two -- it welcomes that. But, I think Disney should be very concerned that Uni plans to significantly increase its hotel offerings as well. And, Uni is also building compelling reasons to consider its hotels, which are considerably less expensive that Disney's.

And their hotels are really nice..I mean really 4 star...

 

[Ignohippo]

Universal not causing serious damage in the short term also does not discount the possibility of long term damage. The family that adds a few days at Universal this year may realize there are benefits to leaving the Disney bubble. In two years when they come back they may opt to stay off site or use days to see other attractions they have skipped before in favor of Disney. That is where the real danger is and, as history has shown with other giants of their field, can only really be stopped by never heading down that path. Once that sort of pattern takes shape and the evidence is clear reversing such a shift will only be exponentially more difficult to counter.

What people also don't consider in the WDW v Uni debate is the addition of the new family resorts that have been and will be cropping up in the immediate area.

We aren't talking about Motel 6's anymore in Orlando.

The Nickelodeon Hotel is the first, CoCo Key on I-Drive is another, but how long will it be before one of the major players (or many) realize the gap in offerings and open up a major family resort between the two properties that caters to people staying at both WDW AND Uni?

The lack of exciting yet economic alternatives to staying on WDW or Uni property is the only thing standing in the way of a MAJOR change of families choosing to spend their vacations away from the WDW Resorts.

 

[C.FERNIE]

I sadly think unless the completely redo DHS we will not see any significant Star wars presence... too expensive for TDO

 

[SJN1279]

As I said earlier, I am very sorry to hear about Al Lutz's health issues. I used to enjoy reading his column onMiceage, and I shouldn't have assumed that he stopped posting because his main leak left Disneyland. I was wrong to do so.

That said, while Miceage is still an enjoyable read, the accuracy of its reporting is no where near as strong as it used to be since Lutz left the site, and George K left Disneyland. In fact, most of their rumors never come close to fruition.

 

[FutureWorld1982]

Maybe what's considered backstage in Florida isn't considered backstage in California.

Yeah, that's what it seems like. Thanks for the replies, though.

 

[71jason]

What people also don't consider in the WDW v Uni debate is the addition of the new family resorts that have been and will be cropping up in the immediate area.

We aren't talking about Motel 6's anymore in Orlando.

The Nickelodeon Hotel is the first, CoCo Key on I-Drive is another, but how long will it be before one of the major players (or many) realize the gap in offerings and open up a major family resort between the two properties that caters to people staying at both WDW AND Uni?

The lack of exciting yet economic alternatives to staying on WDW or Uni property is the only thing standing in the way of a MAJOR change of families choosing to spend their vacations away from the WDW Resorts.

As I was reading Parentsof4's post, I thought much the same--Nick Hotel is as much a threat to WDW as Potter is. A Great Wolf Lodge along I-Drive could be a huge game-changer as well.

But as long as guests have a car anyway ... suddenly "the water park with the dolphins" or "that new giant Ferris Wheel" becomes a real option. Very quickly 2 days off-property can be 3, maybe 4. This isn't "Disney v. Universal." This is "WDW Property v. everywhere else around town."

 

[ParkMan73]

Customer acquisition vs customer retention 101: "it costs ten times more to acquire a new customer than it does to keep an existing one".


This goes hand in hand with what @lazyboy97o stated. Im pretty sure Disney knows that Uni is not taking the thrown but they know that the impact is costing millions. It adds up pretty quick when you figure the average family cutting out 2 days at WDW to visit Uni. How many people visit WDW a year? 40 million? Lets low ball it and say If Disney just lost one dollar per customer. Thats a lot of scratch.(roughly Igers salary,lol) Maybe thats where MM+ comes into play. They figure they can just gain that extra dollar back through customers charging a little more here and there with magic bands. Rather than worry about keeping the customer by means of new and exciting attractions, shows, and parades, they just need them to spend a few extra bucks and there is no loss. MM+ is a financial E-ticket in the eyes of execs. Theyre as excited about it as we would be if they announced a major attraction coming soon. Its a "Potter swatter" in their eyes, we just cant actually ride it.

For us, there's a double whammy going on.

First - we're likely to peel off a day or two to go to Universal now.
Second - the higher prices at WDW means we go less often.

 

[jlsHouston]

Much of the motivation behind Disney's MyMagic+ strategy is WDW’s hotels and a lot of what’s going on there can be seen from examining The Walt Disney Company’s 10K filings.

Consider “Per Room Guest Spending” (PRGS). As defined by Disney, “Per room guest spending consists of the average daily hotel room rate as well as guest spending on food, beverages and merchandise at the hotels.”

Back in 2005 when Iger became CEO, PRGS was $206. In the most recent completed fiscal year (2013), this number was $267. That’s a compound growth of only 3.3%. Inflation has averaged 2.3% over the same period so real growth is only 1.0%. For a company like Disney, that’s disappointing performance.

Most of the real growth has occurred due to higher food, beverages and merchandise prices at the hotels. By comparison, hotel room prices have stagnated.

We all understand why. Disney already charges 5-star prices for 3-star hotels. A Deluxe room at WDW often is 50% more than a similar room at Universal. Disney’s motel-like “Value” Resorts are over $100/night, $200/night during Easter and Christmas. Comparable offsite rooms can be found for a fraction of those prices.

Given the current added value of staying onsite at WDW, many decide to stay offsite, exerting downward pressure on WDW’s room prices.

Disney is banking on FastPass+ and MagicBand providing further gaps between the onsite and offsite experience, allowing Disney to once again raise prices on their hotel rooms.

Just remember, raising prices doesn’t necessarily mean higher rack rates, although that is desired. However, it definitely means fewer “Free Dining” offers and lower “Room Only” discounts.

The desired (by corporate Disney) net effect is for guests to pay a lot more for their onsite stays at WDW.

The issue to be debated (I don't know the answer, just an opinion) is whether Universal's strategy to more than double their hotel capacity will have any impact on Disney's plans for higher WDW hotel prices.

I am not real smart in the forward thinking realm, but I have been so convinced since last year and the NextGen threads started that what you have proclaimed about the room capacity and PRGS is what's behind this MM+ crap. I personally think in the short term Disney really called it wrong with MM+ because it is taking away from current guests and loyal patrons of the resort more than it is giving back. I think there are a significant number of us that come annually or multiple trips a year and stay onsite and we are not amused by what MM+ roll outs have provided to date. One poster discussed how the MM+ was beneficial to their visit and his credit card bills seem to reflect some upward spending. I had issues with MM+ at my second resort and I didn't spend outside my budget...there were no extra splurges...
Let the FP+ limitations take firm hold and those of us that are use to touring the parks in certain ways see curtailed activities and there will be less spending if it is true that a content vacationer is a happy generous spender then a disgruntled one is not.
What gets to me is the simple truths in business would have served management well enough on how to spend there capital dollars to retain guests and wring more vacation dollars out of guest: clean parks and resorts, fresh rides and attractions, customer service, customer service, customer service...

 

[flynnibus]

That said, while Miceage is still an enjoyable read, the accuracy of its reporting is no where near as strong as it used to be since Lutz left the site, and George K left Disneyland. In fact, most of their rumors never come close to fruition.

Here you go again extrapolating way beyond your actual knowledge. You are taking the near term things (DCA backlot, and three versions of TL) and throwing everything out because of those stories you believe to be wrong. This is what is known as 'throwing the baby out with the bath water'

Before you write them off as dead.. you might want to go back and read some before August. It's not as bad as you paint it... Remember, it's a site that reports on things including things that have yet to happen... not all will come to be.