"So much is riding on 'Avatar: The Way Of Water,' and thankfully the early reaction to the film is off the charts," Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore's senior media analyst, told Insider. "This is great news for theaters that have been looking for a proper blockbuster to take us out of 2022 and into 2023 with some much-needed box office momentum."
Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at
Box Office Pro, thinks "The Way of Water" could open in the US with between $150 million and $180 million, which would be more than the first movie's opening weekend of $77 million.
But "Avatar" wasn't a massive success because of its opening weekend. It had impressively strong legs throughout its nearly eight-month initial theatrical run — an unheard of amount of time for a movie to play in theaters today. Its box office dropped just 2% in its second weekend, for instance.
If "The Way of Water" can carry similar momentum week-to-week, it will make most of its money in 2023 — a good way to start the new year after a troubling 2022 for the film industry.
The theatrical market has shown few signs of a recovery coming out of the pandemic — the biggest being the performance of "Top Gun: Maverick," which is currently the highest-grossing movie of the year both in the US and worldwide.