Attendance drop in the parks... I wonder why

[21stamps]

I can try! Do I get one of your fp+ as payment?

http://www.cruisecritic.com/news/news.cfm?ID=6670

https://www.uniworld.com/en/themed-cruises/family-friendly-cruises/

Thank you for posting that. It sounds like they're doing certain cruises for "families". That makes sense. I don't think your average retiree who's kids are grown, house is paid, wants to travel the world.. would be thrilled with unexpectedly booking a Danube River cruise that is full of families.lol.

Ok so, the "less than average Walt Disney World price"...and being competition to WDW as a result.. is that the case? I didn't see prices.

Oops @SorcererMC i meant to quote you as well. I would hope/think that people would know ahead of time. Is Viking joining in?

 

[snek]

I don't think your average retiree who's kids are grown, house is paid, wants to travel the world.. would be thrilled with unexpectedly booking a Danube River cruise that is full of families.lol.

I certainly wouldn't! I'm happy they don't appear to be losing the adult market while expanding to families. I definitely want to take a river cruise someday.

 

[21stamps]

I certainly wouldn't! I'm happy they don't appear to be losing the adult market while expanding to families. I definitely want to take a river cruise someday.

I wouldn't either. Like I said, I compare it to something like Azamara, who in my opinion has the best itineraries of any cruise line in the ocean..but even though they don't have a rule against children, it's commonly understood that those cruises are geared more to adults. I kind of hope this would travel over to lines like that..have a few dates for "families".

Do you really view this as competition to WDW though? I can't imagine ever debating the 2 in my mind. The experiences are so different. Especially if "price" is someone's main concern.

 

[SorcererMC]

Oops @SorcererMC i meant to quote you as well. I would hope/think that people would know ahead of time. Is Viking joining in?[/QUOTE]

I think that Viking is established in the traditional market where the emphasis is on history and culture, UNESCO sites, wine and dine cruise, etc. Minors are allowed, but I think discouraged. Their terms and conditions state that they will limit the number of minors.
http://www.vikingcruises.com/terms-conditions/index.html
http://www.vikingrivercruises.com/cruise-destinations/europe/index.html

 

[Otterhead]

I, er, apologize for bringing up river cruises in the first place.

 

[21stamps]

Oops @SorcererMC i meant to quote you as well. I would hope/think that people would know ahead of time. Is Viking joining in?

I think that Viking is established in the traditional market where the emphasis is on history and culture, UNESCO sites, wine and dine cruise, etc. Minors are allowed, but I think discouraged. Their terms and conditions state that they will limit the number of minors.
http://www.vikingcruises.com/terms-conditions/index.html
http://www.vikingrivercruises.com/cruise-destinations/europe/index.html[/QUOTE]

Off topic- but here's why I have such an admiration for Viking even though I haven't been on one- their connection to Masterpiece.lol. That and my parents have done 3 in the past..all looked so amazing. They had nothing but rave reviews of the entire experience and excursions.

 

[L.C. Clench]

It does, actually, and being able to get a boat five minutes from my Treehouse to take me to Disney Springs for some tasty food or a drink at Jock Lindsey's was pretty nice. Also a great way to end the day, taking a boat back from the Springs. Honestly a highlight of the trip in some ways. Personally I'd rather stay at the Polynesian or Wilderness Lodge, both for the atmosphere and location, but they aren't my DVC points!

If you are a golfer and I could actually see Saratoga being a good place to stay and play a few rounds of golf in the daytime and visit a few bars at night. I know it was always the least desirable of the DVC but I'm curious if that has changed at all.

 

[SorcererMC]

I, er, apologize for bringing up river cruises in the first place.

The context is what matters - a WDW vacation is now rivalling a European tour....tourists are noticing. If Disney is going to skew their pricing towards being a luxury good, then they have to contend with the competition and how families think about traveling. It changes or influences the value proposition of a WDW vacation, and Disney is making itself more susceptible to the vagaries of the international tourism market.

 

[snek]

Do you really view this as competition to WDW though? I can't imagine ever debating the 2 in my mind. The experiences are so different. Especially if "price" is someone's main concern.

If I'm choosing between the two to spend my money on, yes. I wouldn't most likely be able to do both experiences in a year because the lack of vacation time ugh. But you're right, I dont think the two experiences are the same, they're very different. But I want to do both and have to choose...

 

[drizgirl]

I, er, apologize for bringing up river cruises in the first place.

Not to worry. If it wasn't river cruises, it would have been something else.

 

[Bandini]

The context is what matters - a WDW vacation is now rivalling a European tour....tourists are noticing. If Disney is going to skew their pricing towards being a luxury good, then they have to contend with the competition and how families think about traveling. It changes or influences the value proposition of a WDW vacation, and Disney is making itself more susceptible to the vagaries of the international tourism market.

My friends, family of 4, 2 boys age 7 and 10. they priced a WDW vacation 2 weeks vs a trip to Ireland and UK for 2 weeks. The Europe trip was about $1000 more. So they picked Europe. WDW used to be a lot less expensive than a European trip. Now, not so much.

 

[Laketravis]

Personally, I believe there was a lot of pent-up demand that was unleashed from 2010 thru 2015. Many of those people will not return for several years, if at all. Let's call it a post-great-recession fluke, a fluke that some might say Disney incorrectly assumed to have long term potential. So from that perspective they treated high attendance numbers like an annuity and tested both pricing elasticity and brand loyalty. Others believe that Disney is pretty smart and there is some wisdom behind spending billions on hi-tech and data collection rather than expanding park attractions. Because when those attendance numbers do drop Disney is in a much better position to throttle costs thru yield management as opposed to shuttering billions of dollars worth of new attractions that don't have the crowd levels to support them.

Now that pent-up demand is fizzling out it's not going to be possible to be categorized as a premium destination thru premium pricing alone. As others have unwittingly pointed out as the topic of this thread morphed, WDW is a destination that once considered now reveals a wealth of alternative and truly premium destination options in the same pricing league.

 

[Bandini]

To me, and this is obviously my opinion, people aren't comparing any of those destinations to WDW. If they do, and choose the alternative, I'm all for it!

Huh?

 

[21stamps]

The context is what matters - a WDW vacation is now rivalling a European tour....tourists are noticing. If Disney is going to skew their pricing towards being a luxury good, then they have to contend with the competition and how families think about traveling. It changes or influences the value proposition of a WDW vacation, and Disney is making itself more susceptible to the vagaries of the international tourism market.

That's where I would like to see stats. I think, don't have anything more than anecdotal proof though, that the people who are traveling internationally were doing so before Disney raised their prices. Not as a result. Especially not when you look at the price difference of something like a Tauck or ABD tour/river cruise combo. I've gotten a few quotes from Tauck before, bc I didn't want to travel to Europe alone with my kid before age 8. They make Disney prices look like a bargain.lol.

ETA- I want to specify WDW, again. To me the people who would leave Disney for the examples you are giving are more likely the DCL travelers. There comes a point when you can't justify a similar experience for such a higher price point. This is how I feel about certain DCL itineraries. If you are on a port intensive cruise, is an extra $6k worth DCL? IMO - No. So I'd choose another line. (I just recently typed exactly this on another thread lol)
But there's nothing to accurately compare to WDW. So you aren't faced with the same decision making process.
If people were saying WDW was losing travelers to Altlantis then I could see that. To me that is a much closer comparison, price wise and experience wise.

 

[Grimley1968]

Speaking for myself, there is an increasing amount of local competition to keep me closer to home and save thousands vs. a trip to WDW.

Within a 3.5 hour drive I can visit Dollywood, Biltmore, King's Island, Holiday World, several great cities, a few national and state parks, etc. None of these places have the nostalgic draw of WDW for me, but I can no longer ignore the tremendous savings of those locations for my family.

If one doesn't have that nostalgic draw to WDW, those other locations become all the more appealing. This would probably be a factor when combined with WDW's price increases and cash grabs.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Iger specifically said last year (Q2 or Q3 call I think) that some of the decisions were made knowing that it would cost them on attendance. It was an expectation.

Quoting because Iger's comments on the Q3 call about their internal data (lower attendance but high occupancy rates) are consistent with what the external data is now showing. Secondly, I believe that the decision that Iger was referring to was part of an exchange about the introduction of the dynamic pricing model last spring.

I guess when I heard "move attendance from peak periods" I took that to mean they hoped to move it to "off season periods" not move it somewhere else completely.

When asked during the 16Q2 earnings call: "what do you see as the biggest opportunity for a contributor for profit growth, you know, going forward?", Disney CEO Bob Iger responded with:

We like the steps that we have taken in terms of pricing. We have taken a number of steps or made a number of steps to essentially grow revenue. In some cases, actually, at the expense of some attendance where we are changing our pricing approach, sometimes in part to moderate attendance so that the park experience is a little bit better, but all designed with the effect of essentially raising revenue.​

 

[Andrew C]

When asked during the 16Q2 earnings call: "what do you see as the biggest opportunity for a contributor for profit growth, you know, going forward?", Disney CEO Bob Iger responded with:

We like the steps that we have taken in terms of pricing. We have taken a number of steps or made a number of steps to essentially grow revenue. In some cases, actually, at the expense of some attendance where we are changing our pricing approach, sometimes in part to moderate attendance so that the park experience is a little bit better, but all designed with the effect of essentially raising revenue.​

That's what I was referring to. Thanks for finding it!

Now. Whether that was a good strategy..that can be debated by others. Lol.

 

[21stamps]

That's what I was referring to. Thanks for finding it!

Now. Whether that was a good strategy..that can be debated by others. Lol.

I think it speaks volumes about the type of shift that Americans have made in the past few years. Designers are making inexpensive lines for places like Target and Kohls because their revenue is down..But the entertainment and travel industry is raising prices and coming up with every "luxury" experience that they can. Having huge success with it.
People are spending more on living instead of collecting "things".

Is Disney willing to price out or dissuade a certain number of people in order to gain more from others? Sounds like it.

I don't know how it will play out in the long run, but it seems like it may work.

 

[SorcererMC]

That's where I would like to see stats. I think, don't have anything more than anecdotal proof though, that the people who are traveling internationally were doing so before Disney raised their prices. Not as a result. Especially not when you look at the price difference of something like a Tauck or ABD tour/river cruise combo. I've gotten a few quotes from Tauck before, bc I didn't want to travel to Europe alone with my kid before age 8. They make Disney prices look like a bargain.lol.

It's not linear causation so much as the push-pull factors of WDW's pricing strategy, which treats a vacation as both a normal good and luxury good, depending on consumer segment differentiation. International travel is usually considered a luxury good. It's not just the increase in WDW prices, it's the decrease in European prices. European airfares have been down ~20% in the past year; more Americans are traveling to Spain and Ireland (and avoiding France due to security concerns). This has been the general trend over the past year but you can look at EU tourism stats or World Travel and Tourism monthly stats; US outbound travel is up 5% (see Natl Travel and Tourism Office.) The US Travel Association Outlook is a great summary for domestic economic indicators. (Re: your ETA, a Caribbean case could be made, too).

 

[21stamps]

It's not linear causation so much as the push-pull factors of WDW's pricing strategy, which treats a vacation as both a normal good and luxury good, depending on consumer segment differentiation. International travel is usually considered a luxury good. It's not just the increase in WDW prices, it's the decrease in European prices. European airfares have been down ~20% in the past year; more Americans are traveling to Spain and Ireland (and avoiding France due to security concerns). This has been the general trend over the past year but you can look at EU tourism stats or World Travel and Tourism monthly stats; US outbound travel is up 5% (see Natl Travel and Tourism Office.) The US Travel Association Outlook is a great summary for domestic economic indicators. (Re: your ETA, a Caribbean case could be made, too).

I think travel, especially international travel is up tremendously for sure. In the comment above I mentioned a shift that's been happening for awhile now.. people want to do "more" and they want their children to experience more than previous generations generally have.
Combine all of that with relatively inexpensive airfare (in certain cities)=wonderful results.

I just can't get on the same page of 'people who left Disney bc of price are now all of the sudden decided to go overseas on luxury vacations.' Like I said, I think Atlantis has made a Huge splash in recent years on the family stage. So that 'argument' I could understand. When I first started going there you didn't see many kids, sure some, but not the majority. Now it's almost impossible to walk 10 feet without seeing a child. When they opened their "value" accomadations it attracted even more.
I think this had to cut into the WDW market. I don't have anyway to prove that, and I haven't searched, but it seems like it would. Did you come across anything like that?

Btw,
Thanks for the articles! I enjoyed them!