Re Fifth Gate talk:
So, whether a fifth gate should, or should not, be built hinges on two important points.
First, the offerings and capacity of theme parks. A couple pages ago someone asked if Discovery Cove is a full day experience, it is. Discovery Cove happens to be the best theme park right now in Orlando because it is thematically consistent throughout and asks its guests to slow down and deeply engage with its offerings. If you were to 'park commando' Discovery Cove, you would be done well before closing, but you'd miss so much. Discovery Cove is about slowly absorbing everything around you and being rewarded for those special little things scattered throughout the areas like the walking and the snorkeling paths. This is not a park where you can or should be checking your phone, aside from using it to take pictures. Discovery Cove is very much in the tradition of the classic Disney theme parks of olde.
This is in contrast to the current parks that are heavily predicated on forcing guests to become 'park commandos' with attraction line ups that are heavy on the thrills and/or low on capacity. With the decision to close The Great Movie Ride at DHS, it appears that at the heart of Disney's thinking is the belief that the problem with pre redo DHS was stale offerings with large swaths of the park not pulling in enough revenue, not capacity. I know I'm preaching to the choir on this, but swapping TGMR for Mickey is so pigheaded because the park needs to compensate for losing all the backlot attractions AND the massive crowds SWGE will attract to the park. The revenue/staleness problem is solved, but capacity hasn't been increased or has seen a net decline.
If Disney continues to build its parks the way they have, they will need a fifth gate in the 2020's. Folks crow about the half day/full day issue, but the Magic Kingdom and EPCOT Center are/were two day parks. Disney won't need to build a fifth gate in Florida provided they invest in the capacity and design of parks that each have two days worth of offerings for guests. IP isn't the solution to Disney's problems, creating guest efficient, thematically rich spaces that demand your full attention are. That's the key to WWoHP's continued success and the real test for SNW and SWGE.
Second, what's the theme? IP multiplex parks are great in the short term. They allow their owners to be responsive to the popular properties that guest want to see in the parks. However, these spaces either are built on the cheap using interchangeable assests like theaters or simulators, as in the case with DM and Simpsons, or give guests thematic whiplash as they move from land to land. Theme parks that are just that, parks predicated on a theme with a clear and understandable thesis, succeed in the long term because they can be spaces that generations of guests can share. That's why a still underbuilt park like DAK gets as much love as it does because guests clearly understand what it's about and can engage with it to whatever level of depth they choose. How many guests could tell you IoA is a theme park celebrating works on the printed page? Despite Epcot's decline over the past 20 years, people still know what it's about and would likely welcome its return to form over turning it into MK 2.0 long term. Disney used to fight for generations of guests to add to their multi generation spaces. The UNI/IP multiplex model can only really focus on one generation at a time or lest it be seen as stale.
The discussion around the 5th and 3rd gates is so telling because no one can offer a better answer than "villains park" or "they have the rights to x y and z".
So, unless something changes, we're going to put into a future where these gates will have to be built, yet they will be thematically inert spaces entirely dependent on IP de jour. This is bad business and it's not the theme parks people who enjoy them deserve.
Additionally, there's a whole lot more to it than that, like urban planning which both resorts are handling very poorly, but that's enough for a lazy Saturday morning.