A Spirited Valentine ...

[Astro Blaster]

Some Parks tidbits from Disney's earnings call (courtesy Bloomberg):

- Iger: Shanghai to welcome 10 millionth guest
- Iger: Shanghai exceeding expectations
- Iger: Toy Story Land the first of several planned expansions in Shanghai
- McCarthy (CFO): Shanghai modestly profitable in 2Q
- McCarthy: Domestic park attendance up 4%
- McCarthy: Park bookings down 4% so far in 3Q
- McCarthy: 3Q Parks costs to increase due to attractions

First analyst question was on future revenue drivers in Parks. Here's Iger's transcribed response:

Robert A. Iger: The answer would be all of the above. We have a lot of investment activity actually across the globe in that segment. You mentioned Avatar, which opens just in a couple of weeks. We're building two Star Wars lands as you know in Orlando and in Anaheim.




We're opening a new hotel in Hong Kong. We opened Iron Man recently. We just announced a $1.4 billion expansion of the Hong Kong park. We intend with our partner, OLC, to continue to grow our business in Tokyo. And of course we've talked about what we're doing in Paris, which is all aimed at long term investment and long term growth, and then we had a quarter of profitability at Shanghai.




I mentioned in my comments that we're just days away from Shanghai hitting 10 million people in attendance, which is nicely ahead of where we thought we would be because the year anniversary is in June. And we are already building to expand there, so we think we've got opportunities to continue to grow that.




And of course we've got two new cruise ships in the works and a number of other plans as it relates to our Hotel business. So we think that we've got room on pricing there. It's not just about taking pricing up. It's just about being more strategic in how we price, particularly how we manage demand, and we've taken a number of steps there.




We think we can expand length of stay across the globe actually with some of these investments. We have some nice pricing leverage with our hotels. We actually are comping nicely in hotel rates, particularly in Orlando as a for instance, but we have an opportunity to expand. And again, our global footprint continues to grow, particularly when you consider expansion in Hong Kong, in Paris and ultimately in Shanghai.




So I think there are a lot of levers here. We also have a business that has been great at managing its costs. They'll go up somewhat this coming quarter for the quarter that we're in because of some of the investments that we've talked about, but they've managed their costs to continue to improve margins. And we don't see any reason why that can't continue.

 

[WDW1974]

Today's typical Disney quarterly report:

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/disney-q2-2017-earnings-revenues-1202421361/

I don't see any reason to take them apart much. ESPN continues to have issues, but isn't going anywhere or the disaster that some believe.

P&R continues to benefit from the slash & raise business model.

And the tent pole film strategy will bring in billions annually ... until it suddenly won't.

 

[WDW1974]

Been asked about Pandora. I have no comment because I haven't been yet. I won't likely see it before the fall because ... well, because I'd rather return to TDR and see SDL for the first time.

I just want to see how long before that merchandise is all over, most especially at the outlets (I know Burgan is going to be all over that). And how long before trees and green areas are ripped up for massive stroller and wheelchair and ECV lots.

Pics look amazing and that is generally what I expect.

 

[WDW1974]

Lots of projects are moving through various stages of development. But if you're looking for big stuff for the big 50th (you should be celebrating 45 years of MAGIC now to put this in perspective), it really needs to be approved by this fall and start work by sometime next year. You aren't getting some amazing E-Ticket or massive redo that starts in June of 2019 and opens two years later. This IS Disney.

In other words, a lot of big stuff may well be coming, but much further out than breathless fanbois wish to believe. It looks like the 2023-2027 period could be huge!

 

[the.dreamfinder]

It looks like the 2023-2027 period could be huge!

That sounds a lot like the "50th will be HUUGE" crowd from 2012/2013.

 

[Thanks phoenicians]

Lots of projects are moving through various stages of development. But if you're looking for big stuff for the big 50th (you should be celebrating 45 years of MAGIC now to put this in perspective), it really needs to be approved by this fall and start work by sometime next year. You aren't getting some amazing E-Ticket or massive redo that starts in June of 2019 and opens two years later. This IS Disney.

In other words, a lot of big stuff may well be coming, but much further out than breathless fanbois wish to believe. It looks like the 2023-2027 period could be huge!

Considering the Epcot stuff aside from rat and potentially U.K. Keep getting pushed back that's not unexpected. Was really hoping TL work could get the go ahead for the 50th since SGE seems just about done and the speedway outdated. As long as Disney keeps putting money into the parks after its current allotment through the 50th that would be good. I'd rather not have a repeat of DAK opening-NFL with nothing new between for over a decade at what's supposed to be the flagship resort. Thanks for the info you can tell us it's much appreciated

 

[WDW1974]

Not quite sure where to put this, but did any of you catch Live with Kelly Lee and Ryan Regis Seacrest last week?

When Kelly did a blatant and placed piece of PR for Club 33 in Anaheim? When she talked (lied?) about not knowing it existed and hearing it ''online' (maybe she reads here ... nah, I'm sure she gets her info from Amity Corless). And Ryan acted like 'wow, Kel, there's a private club at Disneyland?!?!' And she was telling how she asked a Disney exec and he told her there was indeed and that he could take her to it.

I swear Iger has people making six figures dedicated to getting stuff placed in his media networks about P&R.

I am sure the creator of the Goldbergs loves Disney so much that in successive weeks he had his 80s characters wearing original EPCOT Center sweatshirts and 1986-era Star Tours comes to DL tees.

But the Kelly deal was likely to set the stage for the bars and memberships they'll be selling in the swamps, let people have it in their consciousness (BTW, true story, but I once stalked her in Tomorrowland in the MK in the 1990s when she was on All My Children and in no way a household name. I did finally chat with her briefly in Mickey's Mart where she was picking something up for a nephew or niece since she didn't have any kids yet. Very sweet. But not a loaded celeb back then.) Speaking of which, we know Brigante will spend for access. But there's no one else (even Disney Blogger to the Stars, Tom Bricker) with enough scratch to afford a membership, so it will be fun watching as all their 'friends' get them in the bars.

 

[WDW1974]

That sounds a lot like the "50th will be HUUGE" crowd from 2012/2013.

The 50th will showcase lots of new and quality product. The thing really is what qualifies as new? Something I brought up in the '50 New Things' thread.

Pandora, which is basically open now, is not going to be new in 2021. But who says it won't be marketed as such, especially with new films finally coming out.

 

[WDW1974]

Considering the Epcot stuff aside from rat and potentially U.K. Keep getting pushed back that's not unexpected. Was really hoping TL work could get the go ahead for the 50th since SGE seems just about done and the speedway outdated. As long as Disney keeps putting money into the parks after its current allotment through the 50th that would be good. I'd rather not have a repeat of DAK opening-NFL with nothing new between for over a decade at what's supposed to be the flagship resort. Thanks for the info you can tell us it's much appreciated

Rat will be open by then. The UK attraction is not a major attraction, so that's possible too. I would think a replacement for SGE, but there doesn't appear to be one plan right now ... I think you will see something transformed on the Speedway plot, but there still doesn't appear one approved concept. It will NOT be the Tron coaster from SDL.

 

[Haymarket2008]

Rat will be open by then. The UK attraction is not a major attraction, so that's possible too. I would think a replacement for SGE, but there doesn't appear to be one plan right now ... I think you will see something transformed on the Speedway plot, but there still doesn't appear one approved concept. It will NOT be the Tron coaster from SDL.

Any light you can shed on the UK attraction? Also: It seems that World Showcase plans seem to have more validity to them than anything "going on" in Future World. Is that on purpose?

 

[Thanks phoenicians]

Rat will be open by then. The UK attraction is not a major attraction, so that's possible too. I would think a replacement for SGE, but there doesn't appear to be one plan right now ... I think you will see something transformed on the Speedway plot, but there still doesn't appear one approved concept. It will NOT be the Tron coaster from SDL.

So it seems like the theme of lots of indecisiveness and infighting has continued. Thanks again for the updates

 

[RSoxNo1]

Rat will be open by then. The UK attraction is not a major attraction, so that's possible too. I would think a replacement for SGE, but there doesn't appear to be one plan right now ... I think you will see something transformed on the Speedway plot, but there still doesn't appear one approved concept. It will NOT be the Tron coaster from SDL.

I've heard you and others refer to the UK attraction as, "not a major attraction". Does that mean Frozen level, or does it mean Dumbo level?

 

[Thanks phoenicians]

I've heard you and others refer to the UK attraction as, "not a major attraction". Does that mean Frozen level, or does it mean Dumbo level?

I've been wondering the same thing. @marni1971 seems to like some of the proposals so I highly doubt its as minor as a meet n greet or spinner. Its also been said that it likely wont be a show so the other option i'd think would be a c ticket dark ride like 3 cabs.

 

[TabulaRasa]

Rat will be open by then. The UK attraction is not a major attraction, so that's possible too. I would think a replacement for SGE, but there doesn't appear to be one plan right now ... I think you will see something transformed on the Speedway plot, but there still doesn't appear one approved concept. It will NOT be the Tron coaster from SDL.

@WDW1974 Any insights into the UK attraction? Potential theme?

 

[Cesar R M]

Just take the British approach. Speak loudly and slowly in English. Works a charm

What about the Arnie's way? SHOUT DOWN

 

[GrammieBee]

Been asked about Pandora. I have no comment because I haven't been yet. I won't likely see it before the fall because ... well, because I'd rather return to TDR and see SDL for the first time.

I just want to see how long before that merchandise is all over, most especially at the outlets (I know Burgan is going to be all over that). And how long before trees and green areas are ripped up for massive stroller and wheelchair and ECV lots.

Pics look amazing and that is generally what I expect.

While I am a fan of your posts and am interested in the information you provide, I do wish you would stop ragging on about ECVs and wheelchairs. Yes, there is a percentage of users who take advantage of them and/or do not know how to use them, but there is a percentage of people who will take advantage of anything. Since it is a percentage and the parks keep getting more crowded, there will continually be more people taking advantage of the situation or being idiot drivers.
If you would prefer that ECV users be kept out of the parks, that is your privilege, but someday you may find yourself with a problem or in your eighties and will have need of using one if you want to keep enjoying the parks. When we are younger and "hale and hearty" we think it can never happen to us. As the T shirt says;" I never knew getting old would happen so fast."

As to the army of strollers---well, as long as Disney keeps targeting the preschool set and their parents, I guess we are stuck with them. Like it or not...In the past forty some years of going to Disney World, we have observed that the average age of children in the parks has dropped by many years..In the early years, it was rare to see an infant or young toddler.

 

[Nmoody1]

While I am a fan of your posts and am interested in the information you provide, I do wish you would stop ragging on about ECVs and wheelchairs. Yes, there is a percentage of users who take advantage of them and/or do not know how to use them, but there is a percentage of people who will take advantage of anything. Since it is a percentage and the parks keep getting more crowded, there will continually be more people taking advantage of the situation or being idiot drivers.
If you would prefer that ECV users be kept out of the parks, that is your privilege, but someday you may find yourself with a problem or in your eighties and will have need of using one if you want to keep enjoying the parks. When we are younger and "hale and hearty" we think it can never happen to us. As the T shirt says;" I never knew getting old would happen so fast."

As to the army of strollers---well, as long as Disney keeps targeting the preschool set and their parents, I guess we are stuck with them. Like it or not...In the past forty some years of going to Disney World, we have observed that the average age of children in the parks has dropped by many years..In the early years, it was rare to see an infant or very young toddler.

A visit to Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland, Shanghai Disneyland and even Disneyland in some respects, highlights the problem that apparently is central Florida specific... ECV's and strollers! Infact, i'd argue in a lot of cases, ECV's are a safety concern for many (I'm talking about the folks who don't know how to use them properly and just rent them for vacation).

Still, i can see the appeal to jump the bus line at the end of the evening and bring my whole party on a bus whilst people who were waiting prior get left standing. It's why the ECV rental business in Lake Buena Vista is booming!

And don't get me started on the laziness of parents these days that throw a kid in a stroller or in front of an iPad screen! Still, is sooner a kid be playing Pokemon Go than being thrust on their parents shoulders whilst everyone else behind struggles to see. You can just hold your kid at adult head height and not block everyone's view behind.

Awaiting this post being deleted....

 

[ParentsOf4]

Today's typical Disney quarterly report:

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/disney-q2-2017-earnings-revenues-1202421361/

I don't see any reason to take them apart much. ESPN continues to have issues, but isn't going anywhere or the disaster that some believe.

P&R continues to benefit from the slash & raise business model.

And the tent pole film strategy will bring in billions annually ... until it suddenly won't.

The following disclosure from the current 10Q is interesting:

Disneyland Paris

In February 2017, the Company increased its effective ownership percentage from 81% to 88% by exchanging 1.36 million of the Company’s common shares for 70.5 million outstanding shares of Euro Disney S.C.A. (EDSCA), the publicly-traded French entity, which has an 82% interest in the Disneyland Paris operating company. The transaction was valued at €141 million ( $150 million ) based on a purchase price of €2 per share.

Subject to French regulatory clearance, the Company intends to make a cash tender offer for the remaining 109 million outstanding shares of EDSCA at a price of €2 per share (approximately €219 million or $234 million). If the Company’s ownership in EDSCA is at least 95% following the tender offer, the Company will proceed with a mandatory buyout and delisting of EDSCA from Euronext Paris.​

RIP, the company known as Euro Disney.

Disneyland Paris really was Eisner's Folly.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Apparently Wall Street is concerned about ESPN and it's continued, and possibly increasing, loss of subscribers and its affect on TWDC. DIS down $3/share today.

 

[ford91exploder]

For your reading (dis in some cases)pleasure

A 5 year old article which accurately predicted ESPN's current issues.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/why-espn-has-already-lost-the-future-082611

Also its a interesting take on a 'Duster' who became a 'D&G er' as they saw the ongoing decline of their favorite entertainment and how accurately they predicted the current issues based simply on observation of the business practices