A Spirited Perfect Ten

lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
PhotoDave219 said:
Good question.

@lentesta can you weigh in?
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It's based on the average standby wait times at key attractions between 10 AM and 5 PM. Those fall into a roughly normal distribution, which we carve up into 10 segments.

The way we do the math, there should be an equal chance of an arbitrary day being higher or lower than its prediction. (That is, we don't systematically over- or under-predict.)

I'll ask the stats guys whether there have been more higher days than expected. Give them a few days to figure it out.
 
truecoat

truecoat

Well-Known Member
Goofyernmost said:
You don't have to worry about him all that much. Before to long the steroids will have eaten away at most of his brain cells or some other vital parts of his body and he will be a star no longer. I did, however, like him in "Get Smart". I mean it was no Academy Award winning performance, but, he did alright.
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The Rock is just a freak of nature. Steroids? Unless he started in high school. Here he is at 16.
Dwayne.jpg
 
PhotoDave219

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
It's based on the average standby wait times at key attractions between 10 AM and 5 PM. Those fall into a roughly normal distribution, which we carve up into 10 segments.

The way we do the math, there should be an equal chance of an arbitrary day being higher or lower than its prediction. (That is, we don't systematically over- or under-predict.)

I'll ask the stats guys whether there have been more higher days than expected. Give them a few days to figure it out.
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But nothing should have changed, right?
 
PhotoDave219

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
SYRIK2000 said:
The Disney wait times always seemed skewed, could that be causing it if they tweaked how they do their wait times?
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I can understand skewed on the five minutes here and there level... but to try and skew that many attractions for those amounts of time would be impossible, IMO. Plus the skewing of the wait times is nothing new; it would have reflected in previous data.

I trust what Touring Plans puts out there.
 
SYRIK2000

SYRIK2000

Well-Known Member
PhotoDave219 said:
I can understand skewed on the five minutes here and there level... but to try and skew that many attractions for those amounts of time would be impossible, IMO. Plus the skewing of the wait times is nothing new; it would have reflected in previous data.

I trust what Touring Plans puts out there.
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Me too, been using Touring Plans for years. But something seems wonky on the Disney side.
 
lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
SYRIK2000 said:
Me too, been using Touring Plans for years. But something seems wonky on the Disney side.
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We have some anecdotes that indicate the posted waits are being more inflated. In years past, we used a rule of thumb that said the actual wait was around 82% of posted. We moved from that a while ago, after we noticed the error was different at different times of the day. (At least for some attractions, some times.)
 
PhotoDave219

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
No, the methodology hasn't changed.

I'll ask our stats guys to see how many 1s, 2s, etc, we've seen year-to-date, versus what we expected.
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Exactly what I thought. Just looking at the frequency of things, the amount of 8-10 days at MK have skyrocketed this year while the 4-7 days have dropped significantly vs the past two years. I'm only going back until you implemented the new crowd calendar in October 2012.

Either way, I wouldnt want to be at MK these days.
 
Rodan75

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
Next Big Thing said:
I'd argue Cinderella's Chateau not being built was for the better (we got SDMT instead), Flamingo Crossings is actually sort of slowly humming along now with hotels and some retail being built, Hyperion Wharf transformed into Disney Springs and The Legendary years was a direct result of 9/11. And it did end up getting finished as Art of Animation.

Sometimes people change their minds, especially when it's something being physically built and meant to last a long time. You want to get it right. I just don't see much weight behind your arguments there.
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So it sounds like the issue was Jay Rasulo picking the wrong themes/attractions, more so than announcing things that would never be approved/ funded. (although Flamingo Crossing still stinks from my perspective)
 

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