A Spirited Perfect Ten

[Cesar R M]

I think ignorance was a bigger problem than laziness. Guests saying "I had no idea that WDW took so much planning" rather than "I know WDW takes a lot of planning but I'm not going to bother."

aaah, remember the days when you didn't have a minute by minute schedule and not needed to rush everywhere and just.. you know.. relax and enjoy the disney parks?

 

[Cesar R M]

Even spontaneous users have a few "must do" attractions. And, in theory, they're able to be more spontaneous with their other experiences if the "must dos" are taken care of.

except when the standby lines are artificially inflated and you cant even ride them.. (see Peter Pan and its insane 1+ hours on average).
specially when 75% of the capacity (or more) goes to fastpass.

 

[WDWdream97]

Their plan is to buy out all of the outstanding shares of ED SCA until the only shareholders are The Walt Disney Company, the French Government, and Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal.

Hopefully the changing hands of shares will help DLP live up to its potential. I know a lot of refurbishments are currently underway.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

except when the standby lines are artificially inflated and you cant even ride them.. (see Peter Pan and its insane 1+ hours on average).
specially when 75% of the capacity (or more) goes to fastpass.

Your theory only holds if wait times weren't posted. Since wait times are posted, basic guest behavior shows where you're wrong. Peter Pan can only have a 60 minute wait if people walk up to the queue, see the posted wait, and decide that 60 minutes is worth it. Even if Peter Pan was 100% standby, people will flood the line until it reached 60 minutes anyways. Wait times would be exactly unchanged without FP+.

Every post that tries to describe how Fastpass impacts wait times ignores the fact that guest behavior is dynamic. They assume if 6,000 people wait standby on a ride with FP+, then 6,000 people will wait standby on that same ride if it didn't have FP+. If that were the case, then obviously the waits would be shorter without FP+. But when you eliminate FP+, you also eliminate the 6,000 FP+ riders (assuming a 50% rate). You've doubled the speed of the standby line, but now you have 12,000 people wanting to go through it instead of 6,000. Your wait times are unchanged. Double standby supply and double standby demand means zero net impact on standby waits.

There are only two possible ways lines could be net longer due to FP+ (or legacy FP for that matter). First, guests could be experiencing a greater total number of attractions than they had previously. I think that's a good thing and would gladly take longer standby waits if it means I get to actually do more stuff. The other possibility is if rides are being sent out with empty boats/trains/vehicles at a greater rate than they had been previously. That's unlikely.

 

[asianway]

Your theory only holds if wait times weren't posted. Since wait times are posted, basic guest behavior shows where you're wrong. Peter Pan can only have a 60 minute wait if people walk up to the queue, see the posted wait, and decide that 60 minutes is worth it. Even if Peter Pan was 100% standby, people will flood the line until it reached 60 minutes anyways. Wait times would be exactly unchanged without FP+.

Every post that tries to describe how Fastpass impacts wait times ignores the fact that guest behavior is dynamic. They assume if 6,000 people wait standby on a ride with FP+, then 6,000 people will wait standby on that same ride if it didn't have FP+. If that were the case, then obviously the waits would be shorter without FP+. But when you eliminate FP+, you also eliminate the 6,000 FP+ riders (assuming a 50% rate). You've doubled the speed of the standby line, but now you have 12,000 people wanting to go through it instead of 6,000. Your wait times are unchanged. Double standby supply and double standby demand means zero net impact on standby waits.

There are only two possible ways lines could be net longer due to FP+ (or legacy FP for that matter). First, guests could be experiencing a greater total number of attractions than they had previously. I think that's a good thing and would gladly take longer standby waits if it means I get to actually do more stuff. The other possibility is if rides are being sent out with empty boats/trains/vehicles at a greater rate than they had been previously. That's unlikely.

It's very likely at Pirates, the way I understand it's set up

 

[Funmeister]

All this planning can only be done if you bought a package… it's really an incentive to stay on property.

What I mean is the people that come down to Orlando or Tampa to see grandma and then decide they're going to take the kids to Disney for a day and then take the kids to Universal for a day… People like that are horribly penalized. People who stay off property and only come for a day or two don't have the ability to schedule a fast pass six months in advance.

This is just for planners Who stay on property… if you're off property guest you're kind of screwed.

Add Cast Members to that list also.

 

[TalkingHead]

I would absolutely hate if the major E-Ticket was a raft ride. I don't care how pretty they are (and we should hear about SDL's dino-themed Roaring Rapids this week), to me, they'll always remind me of a Six Flags type park. I just have never really enjoyed the idea of getting soaked while dressed in a theme park. I know, I'm strange!

Or you stay on-site and go to the park exclusively to ride the water rides and leave when you're done. We did that with the IOA water rides and had a blast. Got drenched and rode Rip-Saw Falls and Bluto's a bunch of times.

But given the fact that Bluto's is a great E-ticket, I'd be disappointed if MK's "secret weapon" is a raft ride.

(Side note: Portofino Bay was a lovely place to stay. Unpopular opinion: the water taxis are nicer transportation than anything at WDW. Excellent service at the hotel. Front desk sent us a complimentary bottle of wine and dessert. Doing the parks and hotel as a vacationer, I was very impressed with the Team Members.)

 

[Katie G]

People who stay off property and only come for a day or two don't have the ability to schedule a fast pass six months in advance.

I'm assuming this is exaggerated to prove a point, but to be clear, on-site FP+ reservations can only be made 60 days in advance (2 months) The 6 months in advance refers to dining reservations.

Also, I have noticed that when I book FP a day or two out from when I plan to use them, I can usually get the best rides if I don't try to book multiple tickets at once. If I book each ticket at a time, you can usually overlap FP even if the window is off by 5-10 minutes. So person A can get TSMM for 1:20-2:20 and person B can get TSMM for 1:25-2:25. We both still get to ride at the same time and get the highly demanded rides without booking 60 days in advance.

 

[Soarin4Disney]

All this planning can only be done if you bought a package… it's really an incentive to stay on property.

What I mean is the people that come down to Orlando or Tampa to see grandma and then decide they're going to take the kids to Disney for a day and then take the kids to Universal for a day… People like that are horribly penalized. People who stay off property and only come for a day or two don't have the ability to schedule a fast pass six months in advance.

This is just for planners Who stay on property… if you're off property guest you're kind of screwed .

I agree with this and its not only for off-property guests. Its for locals like me who want to just go for the day. I live in the Tampa Bay area. Disney is only an hour and half from where I live so most of the time, it is a day trip for me and my family. Because of this, we don't really "plan" vacations to Disney. We may decide 2 or 3 weeks in advance that we are going for a day or two. But unless you are planning 3 to 4 months in advance, you won't have good FP or dining options available.

At least with the old FP system, we had strategies that we could do to maximize our day at the park, but that is out the window.

 

[TalkingHead]

I come back to this site and find seven or eight threads with breathless posts spouting new rumored attractions left and right.

The end result is what eventually gets announced will pale in comparison to fanboi dreams.

If Star Wars is going to equal The Best of the Best, then we're in business. If all of these projects are going to be an aggregation of half measures, then... *gulp*

But then again a DHS parking garage will warrant years of construction photos and hundreds of pages of excited speculation, so really it's a win-win for the fan community.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Thought they already said that's not gonna happen in Disneyland?

I have repeatedly said from day one that MM+ or a tailored variation of it will be in every Disney park on the planet before it's all done. They didn't spend that kind of money to just have it in one place. WDW being the largest, with the most possibility of problems arising is the test site. Once they get it worked out, and they will, you will see it everywhere.

PS. No insider information there, just my opinion, but, in the words of Olaf.... "It only makes sense".

 

[PhotoDave219]

I come back to this site and find seven or eight threads with breathless posts spouting new rumored attractions left and right.

The end result is what eventually gets announced will pale in comparison to fanboi dreams.

If Star Wars is going to equal The Best of the Best, then we're in business. If all of these projects are going to be an aggregation of half measures, then... *gulp*

But then again a DHS parking garage will warrant years of construction photos and hundreds of pages of excited speculation, so really it's a win-win for the fan community.

Why do you think I started what is essentially a rumor-control thread?

Just the fact that we're getting Star Wars is enough to make me happy..... And with the numbers being thrown around, sounds like I will be.

 

[VJ]

3) It's just damn refreshing to find a news piece that is stimulating to read that isn't full of clickbait, sensationalism, and general extremism to generate interest. On top of that... it doesn't have anything to do with random people we shouldn't give a crap about!

I found it funny that you said that it's refreshing and the article is about drinking fountains.

 

[truecoat]

I come back to this site and find seven or eight threads with breathless posts spouting new rumored attractions left and right.

The end result is what eventually gets announced will pale in comparison to fanboi dreams.

If Star Wars is going to equal The Best of the Best, then we're in business. If all of these projects are going to be an aggregation of half measures, then... *gulp*

But then again a DHS parking garage will warrant years of construction photos and hundreds of pages of excited speculation, so really it's a win-win for the fan community.

This thread and others are the adult equivalent to the Sears Christmas catalog when I was a kid.

 

[hopemax]

There are only two possible ways lines could be net longer due to FP+ (or legacy FP for that matter). First, guests could be experiencing a greater total number of attractions than they had previously. I think that's a good thing and would gladly take longer standby waits if it means I get to actually do more stuff. The other possibility is if rides are being sent out with empty boats/trains/vehicles at a greater rate than they had been previously. That's unlikely.

This is how I explain, why lines can be longer. Think RCT, every guest has a thought bubble with how long the are willing to wait for a specific ride. If the thought bubble number is higher than the current wait, "I will wait 75 min, the line is only 60 min," the person enters the queue. If the the thought bubble is lower than the current wait, "I will only wait 45 min, the line is 60 min," the person skips it.

When there was no Fastpass at all, and a ride with an hourly capacity of 2000, in order for the line to be an hour you needed a constant stream of 2000 people with thought bubbles of 60 min or more entering. Might be hard to do, that's a lot of people.

Enter Fastpass. Who gets one? The people who were willing to get in line when it was 60 min, or the people who skipped because the wait was too long? My theory, the people who SKIPPED the queue are more motivated because getting a FP makes the difference between riding and not riding. So when the ride switched to 80% FP, you lower the effective standby capacity to 400 people per hour, but you may have only dropped the number of actual people in the standby queue from 2000 to 1000 (the other 600 FP's going to people who previously did not enter the queue). Whatever the ratio of group A (original standby) to group B (skipped the ride) makes the difference. This is also an indication of how under capacity certain attractions are (like TSMM or Soarin) if group B was huge, group A won't get enough FPs to shrink standby as much as they shrunk effective capacity. FP+ also increases the likelihood of someone from Group B getting FP's because now they don't even have to get up, get to the park, and run around they can do it in their PJs at home.

So now we've theoretically got 1000 standby people, who still have thought bubbles with "60 min or more" but they can only move at a rate of 400 people per hour. That's a 2.5 hour line if everyone stayed. Not everyone will stay, as their thought bubble won't match up with the current wait time. You'll lose the people who max at 60-70 min (those probably were the people from the original standby who were motivated to get a FP and were part of the 1000), but retain the ones willing to wait 90, 120 or indefinitely. So the equilibrium point gets pushed out to something larger than 60 min.

The mistake I see people making is they think that if the wait maxed out at 60 min pre-FP, that the wait time won't grow past 60 min with FP. But that ignores that the effective standby load rate has changed (even if total capacity remains the same), and so it takes fewer people in standby to maintain a certain wait, and it also ignores that many people pre-FP might have had thought bubbles larger than 60 min in the first place. Those higher waits just didn't come into play because there weren't enough people like them. Or they think that all the people holding FP were in the pre-FP standby queue and not from group B. FP would work fabulously, if not for the size of group B.

Now, those people who weren't riding that now are, could mean a line is shorter somewhere else (they are now at a different place in the park) but "wait time adverse people" are that way for a reason and could just as easily have been at the hotel pool, taking a nap, or some other activity other than being in a ride queue or they were doing an attraction that already didn't have a line (HoP, Stitch, Tiki Room, etc) and so there may not actually be a shorter line anywhere.

Essentially, wait times are up because there were always lots of people who skipped rides, that now have FP, leaving the people willing to wait the longest (least motivated to bother with FP) still in standby queues and in greater numbers than the effective standby load rate. (it's easier to find 400 people an hour to wait 60 min than 2000). Secondly, when people feel like they "missed out on FP" they may adjust their thought bubble "because they feel they have no other choice." So in a pre-FP world where people thought "I can still ride this by coming back later, or getting up earlier tomorrow" so my thought bubble is "45 min." May now think, "there is no good time to ride anymore, if I want to ride, I need to be willing to wait 90 min." More people with bigger thought bubble numbers = longer waits.

 

[PhotoDave219]

So someone got me looking at attendance.... here and I was hoping to take some time from it for awhile... I know we're 12 days into the quarter....

We're in Q4FY15/July-September.

Looking MK.... This entire year, MK is pulling 30% peak crowds. Unheard of... and means MK is packed beyond belief.

2013? Q4 pulled 12 peak crowds. 2014? Q4 pulled 13. 2015? 12 days into Q4FY15 and they've pulled 6 peak crowds.

Everyone should realize that 30% peak crowds is simply not sustainable..... (58/193 days).

Mix this with today's Maingate Blackout news for October (The Whole Month) and you really have to wonder if MK will keep it up.

TL;DR? MK is insanely busy. Avoid.


In other news, Stock is at $118/share. Hit an all-time high at $118.31 today, closed at $118.05.... Dios mio.....

 

[flynnibus]

Have you read "Bowling Alone" by Robert Putnam?

Have not but sounds interesting... I found the unintended consequences of the article listed most interesting. I just love stuff that makes you think... which means I hate 95% of what is 'news' these days.

 

[flynnibus]

Yes and no… It certainly takes the fun out of going to Disney and then figuring out what you're going to do once you get there…

I suppose it's fine if you're somebody who enjoys planning and scheduling things.

Sometimes simply 'putting things on rails' -- is what people need. Choice can be overwelming.. or they can miss too much. It's a school of thought, not a law of nature. But many would rather be put on a bus and driven around town... while more self-reliant people would prefer to make multiple trips discovering more and more each time.

Discovery vs being spoon-fed.

 

[Figments Friend]

aaah, remember the days when you didn't have a minute by minute schedule and not needed to rush everywhere and just.. you know.. relax and enjoy the disney parks?

Yeah,....
...and you STILL CAN on the West Coast at Disneyland.

 

[Mike S]

Yeah,....
...and you STILL CAN on the West Coast at Disneyland.

Ah, Disneyland. Good times