What makes you think I didn't write this?
It's a straightforward Wall Street analysis. Of course, I'm going to comment only on the parts I want to poke fun at. (Even though it really doesn't deserve it.)
First tidbit:
Looking at the international theme parks, revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% in the past few years.
Hey, Disney's international Parks & Resorts revenue has an annual growth rate of
4.1% since 2010, 3.5% since 2011, 3.6% since 2012, and 2.9% since 2013, but we know that Wall Street isn't worried about getting numbers right. It's not like they're in the numbers business.
I guess if you go back far enough, there's a 5% in there somewhere. Not sure if that qualifies as "
in the past few years" though. Or you could just cherry pick the ticket, food, and merchandise numbers and ignore the hotels to make the number look bigger than it really is.
Second tidbit:
However, we expect strong growth on this front as the company opens its Shanghai resort in 2016.
Me too, although with an over $5 billion combined investment in a segment that did $2.8 billion in sales last year, you'd kinda expect better than 5% growth, wouldn't you?
Third tidbit
We estimate revenues of around $52.65 billion for Disney in 2015
With Disney's fiscal year three-quarters of the way over, you really went out on a limb on this one, didn't ya.
Fourth tidbit:
Um, so I'm not the only one who thinks DIS is grossly overpriced?
Good thing they have a theme park in
desperate need of a few billion. It's a
much better place to park this year's
$9 billion in net income, rather than even more stock buybacks.
More than any other factor, the stock price should tell everyone why the BoD was ready to approve the DHS project this year.
Fifth tidbit:
Looking at the guest spend [at Disney's international Parks & Resorts hotels]
, it has been on an uptrend and grew from $272 to $322 during the same period [2010 to 2014].
And:
Going forward, we expect the occupancy rates to improve marginally from the current levels and average guest spend to grow to around $400 levels by the end of our forecast period.
So, over 4 years, international Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) increased by
18.4%, an annual growth rate of
4.3%. Considering the rack rate, that's a solid growth rate, something to be rather pleased with if not for the fact that international hotel occupancy declined, largely negating gains from higher PRGS.
$322/night to $400/night. Wow, that's
24% growth! That sounds really great until I look at your graphic and see that's a number you're projecting for
2021! Seriously, you're projecting PRGS 6 years into the future? I wonder if even Disney does that.
And, um, that's growth from 2014 to 2021, an annual growth rate of
3.1%. Wow, when you look at it that way, it doesn't sound so great, does it? In fact, it sounds pretty ordinary, especially with the weak international hotel occupancy rate.
Sixth tidbit:
The international theme parks revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 5% from $1.80 billion in 2010 to $2.15 billion in 2014. We expect strong growth in this segment and estimate the theme parks revenues to be north of $3.30 billion by the end of our five- to seven-year forecast period.
No snide remarks from me on this one. This one has me genuinely baffled. Disney is opening an entirely new resort and, by
2021, you're projecting international theme park revenue to be up by only
$1.15 billion? According to your graph, you're expecting only a
$340 million theme park revenue bump in the year Shanghai Disneyland opens. Really? Disney's 6 domestic theme parks average over
$1 billion per park annually while Disney's international theme parks average roughly half that.
Remind me again, exactly why did Iger bend over backwards to get a resort built in Shanghai?
I could go on, but it's getting late. Need to save my strength for the release of Disney's quarterly results in 4 weeks.